تاثیر تغییرات نرخ ارز بر تحولات فضائی شهر تهران

این پژوهش تلاش می‌کند تا تاثیر تغییرات نرخ ارز بر تحولات کالبدی شهر تهران در دو بازه بازۀ زمانی قبل و بعد از افزایش شدید قیمت ارز در سال 1391 بررسی شود. پژوهش حاضر با رویکردی کاربردی و با روش‌شناسی علّی رابطه‌ای با هدف تبیین چگونگی تاثیرگذاری نیروهای اقتصاد بر تغییرات کالبدی شهر و ردیابی جریان سرمایه در شهر تهران انجام شده است. پژوهش در در‌پی یافتن پاسخ به چگونگی ارتباط نرخ ارز و ساخت‌وسازهای شهر تهران؛ ، جریان سرمایه در شهر؛ ، چگونگی ارتباط میان قیمت زمین و مداخلات کالبدی در مناطق 22گانه شهر تهران است. شیوه‌های مورد استفاده برای گردآوری داده‌ها به به‌صورت اسنادی و داده‌های تحقیق شامل قیمت دلار، تعداد پروانه‌های ساختمانی صادر شده و قیمت زمین به تفکیک مناطق 22گانه شهر تهران برای سال‌های 13851396 می‌باشد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد، جریان سرمایه در شهر و شیوه و شدت مداخله در شهرها با قیمت ارز در ارتباط است. تعداد پروانه‌های ساختمانی شهر تهران قبل و بعد از جهش 216 درصدی نرخ ارز در سال 1391، تغییرات معناداری داشته است. با مقایسه مقایسۀ میانگین سالانه سالانۀ پروانه‌های صادر شده مشخص می‌شود که شدت ساخت‌وساز در شهر با جهش قیمت دلار، کاهش یافته است. از سوی دیگر، تفاوت معناداری میان مناطق 22گانه شهرداری تهران از از‌نظر تعداد پروانه‌های ساختمانی و قیمت زمین است. در در‌واقع نتایج پژوهش به به‌واسطهۀ ردیابی جریان سرمایه در شهر تهران نشان می‌دهد که با افزایش نرخ ارز، جریان سرمایه در مناطق شمالی شهر تهران (مناطق 1، 2، 3، 4 و 6) متمرکز می‌شود.

The Impact of Currency value Changes on Spatial Developments of Tehran

Introduction: Cites are affected by different forces. Changing Changes in the structure of the economy has caused different reactions from different groups of government, markets and people, that can be traced by its appearance in the city. One of the aspects of the impact of the economy on the city is physical interventions and urban construction, such as urban land use Changes changes, space utilization intensity, building congestion, and urban boundaries change. This study aims to explain the effect of economy on physical changes of the city. The researchers seeks the trace of capital flow in the city. The Research questions are as follows: 1 How is Tehranchr('39')s exchange rate and construction are related? 2. What is the nature and orientation of capital flow in the city? 3 How is the relationship between land price and physical interventions in 22 district of Tehran?Methodology: This is an applied research and is one of among the causal and relational studies. The documentary and librarybased methods is are used to collect and interpret data. First, the relationship between the exchange rate and the tendency to build in the city is examined using the index of building permits. In the second step, the level of intervention in the city is examined. In the third step, the district and regional effects of land price on the number of building permits were investigated through the spatial correlation between land price and building permits. The study area is 22 districts of Tehran. Tehran is the largest city and capital of Iran that has experienced rapid growth over the years. The area of Tehran has increased from 370 km 2 in 1975 to 751 km 2 in 2015.Results and discussion: Currency exchange is associated with economic power. The increase in the exchange rate indicates the depreciation of the currency and the weakening of the economic power of the country. The turbulence in exchange rate fluctuations can be interpreted as instability in the countrychr('39')s economic conditions. At the first, the exchange rate changes and the number of building licenses were studied in different years. Accordingly, 2012 was identified as a breakthrough in exchange rate changes in the country. The result of Wilcoxon test shows that the number of building permits in Tehran before and after the 216% exchange rate jump in 2012, has changed significantly. A comparison of the annual average of building permits shows that the intensity of construction in the city has declined with the dollar price hike since 2012. The results of KruskalWallis test indicate a significant difference among the 22 districts of Tehran municipality in terms of number of building permits and land price.Eventually, in conditions of economic stability, changes in the city are regular and it is subject to changes in land prices and market demand. But in conditions of economic instability and weakening, the common rules in physical interventions in the city and urban builders are disturbed. The demand elasticity and focus of the builders is limited to the high quality areas of Tehran (zones 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6) which create high value added. This exacerbates Class society.Conclusion: The exchange value causes the city to be used as a commodity, the property of powerholders and capital, and to create added value. The easiest way to get [r1] it, is to invest in housing and buildingsWith the decline in economic power and the possibility for more power and capital intervention in the city, capital choose chooses one of the following ways.The capital flows from liquidity to real estate. Builders and physical changes in the city will be aimed not at reforming or meeting the need, but at creating a safe space for capital. Capital is directed to a place where it creates added value.The government seeks to drive capital out of real estate and direct it toward production.The phenomenon of space production has two aspects. One is consumer value, which comes from production and use. Second, the exchange value, which is profitable, rentier, intermediary and speculative in nature. The deceptive dimension of power must then be sought in exchange value, . Where where people try to take advantage of it. By transforming the city into a commodity, development becomes a tool for exchange value. The stronger the economy, the less foreign exchange capital flows into the land and the capital flows to production and consumption rather than to the exchange and commodification of limited land resources.Analyzes Analyses showed that the intensity of construction in Tehran has declined with the dollar jump since 2012.Analysis of the situation of Tehranchr('39')s 22 districts shows that there is a significant difference between the number of building permits and the price of land between Tehran municipality areas.