برنامه‌ریزی نظام سکونت‌گاهی شهری با رویکرد سناریو مبنا(مطالعه موردی: استان آذربایجان غربی)

ساختار فضایی نظام سکونت گاه های شهری در فضای جغرافیایی نیازمند بسترسازی مطلوب جهت دست یابی به حد بیشینه بهره وری است. در این راستا هدف پژوهش حاضر برنامه ریزی نظام سکونت گاهی شهری استان آذربایجان غربی با تاکید رویکرد سناریونویسی است. نوع تحقیق کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت براساس روش های جدید علم آینده پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق 30 نفر از استادان، متخصصان و کارشناسان در حوزه آمایش سرزمین است. روش گردآوری داده ها برای بررسی مولفه های موثر بر نظام سکونت گاه های شهری استان به دو صورت اسنادی (داده های ثانویه) و پیمایشی (داده های اولیه) و ابزار مورد استفاده در روش پیمایشی پرسش نامه و مصاحبه بوده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها ترکیبی از روش های ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ[1] و نرم افزار میک مک[2] استفاده شده است. براساس نتایج، 11 عامل »شبکه حمل و نقل «، »سلسله مراتب مکان های مرکزی «، »ارزیابی نظام تصمیم گیری و مدیریت «، »تهدیدات نظامی و امنیتی «، »پیوندهای مالی «، »فعالیت های اقتصادی برحسب بخش های اصلی «، »اقتصاد کلان استان «، »تحولات جمعیت «، »منابع آب «، »تهدیدات اجتماعی فرهنگی ndash; سیاسی « و »شبکه ارتباطات « با توجه به این که بیشترین مقدار تاثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم به عنوان عوامل کلیدی موثر بر سناریوهای آینده استان شناسایی شدند. با توجه به یافته های تحقیق بین سناریوهای طراحی شده برای آرایش نظام فضایی سکونت گاه های شهری آذربایجان غربی، با انتخاب »سناریوی چندمرکزی « شاهد انسجام فضایی عملکردی در سطح منطقه و توسعه یکپارچه و متعادل فضایی خواهیم بود.

Urban settlement planning with baseline scenario approach (case study: West Azarbaijan)

Extended Abstract:Introduction The spatial structure of the urban settlement system in a geographical domain requires a good foundation to achieve maximum productivity. By this way, the aim of the current research is to study the urban settlement planning of West Azerbaijan which is highly uncertain due to its geographical location, ethnic diversity and environmental issues. Economic freedom in the Maku Free Zone, the expansion of markets at 7 border areas of the province, the development of the MiandoabTehran communication network, the creation of a railway roundabout, the economic development of the Baneh region, policies to deal with ever decreasing agricultural activities due to the water and environmental crisis, making decisions on creating special economic areas in Mahabad, Urmia, Salmas and Miandoab ...are regional and local trends that have caused uncertainty in the settlement pattern of the province and the human space flow, goods and services. In a nutshell, the study aims to identify settlement scenarios of the province and the framework for the deployment of services, infrastructures and flow of capital, goods and humans in the region for spatial planning. MethodologyThis is a type of applied research and, in essence, based on new scientific, analytical and investigative methods. The statistical population of the study is 30 professors, experts and specialists in the field of spatial planning. The data gathering method was used to examine the effective factors on the urban settlements system of the province, both in documentary (secondary data) and survey (primary data), for which questionnaire and interviews were used as a survey method. To analyze the data, a combination of Delphi methods, Crossimpact analysis, and MickMac software were used. Results and Discussion45 variables were found to be the main and strategic ones affecting the planning of the urban settlement system of West Azerbaijan province that were analyzed via MickMc software.Finally, 11 effective factors were identified with 33 statuses. Accordingly, the midway and the pessimistic assumptions in the best possible range were defined to be the worse. Given theoretical foundations of the proposed study, the spatial scenarios of the province in terms its geographic extent and severity, multiplicity of cities, location and regional potentials can be summarized as follows: First Scenario (Polar Scenario): By choosing this scenario, the future settlement system of the province will have following outcomes: Deletion permissions to settlement perimeter will be too low due to high concentration and security reasons and high ethnic diversity in the province as well as its inappropriate form and shape. The polar scenario is an illustration of highlyconcentrated settlement system in which responsibility for decisions, policies, management and their implementation will be simultaneously focused on the city of Urumia. Urumia is practically the center of commodity exchanges at the provincial level and will be a key link for each settlement in the city. Second Scenario (Cluster Scenario): The obvious features of this scenario are as follows: Although the centralization dominates the province, by coordinating and collaborating widely between settlements, reduces the focus on the province's space relative to the radical scenario. One of the main reasons for this decrease is the existence of large urban centers such as Khoy in the north, Urumia in the center, Miandoab in the south; In this scenario, a number of larger settlements compete with the center of Urumia, and play a central role for its surroundings. The headquarters of each cluster manages its communication. Third Scenario (Archipelago Scenario): In general, the typical features of this scenario in West Azerbaijan province are as follows: The lack of extensive cooperation between settlements, spatial dispersion of housing, as well as the developmental equality of settlements causing communications flows mainly carried out within limited areas (cities and regions). The scenario of the archipelago is an image of the West Azerbaijan province as an island facing local markets and urban areas Fourth Scenario (Multicenter): The typical features of this scenario are as follows: In a multicentered scenario, focusing on the province's space is due to the development of some settlements and the wideranging collaboration between them. However, due to inappropriate form and body and some restrictions in different areas, there is a relative dependence on clusters. In this scenario, the urban complexes of the province have changed from one central space to a multicentre urban complex. Due to high convergence between central settlements and their interaction with each other, macro policies are taken collaboratively by central settlements of main areas. Fifth Scenario (Network): The typical features of this scenario are as follows: This scenario presents a picture of a networked city complex (both in urban and rural settlement). Each settlement itself manages its connections with other settlements. In this scenario, no settlement is dependent on other settlements. ConclusionConsidering the current status of central and star structure of the urban system of West Azerbaijan province, the multicentered urban network is suitable especially due to potentially powerful cities of Khoy, Mako, Miandoab and Mahabad, the northern southern stretch of the province, geopolitical location after realizing the multicentered model and providing an appropriate infrastructure and substrate. The transition from the multicenter model to the network will be provided. To reach the multicentered urban network, which is the scenario of choice for the provincial urban system, the cluster and hierarchical stage of the city's network must be reached in early phases of the province's development. Once an appropriate infrastructure and substrate is provided, the multicenter urban scenario will be realized.