ارزیابی اقتصادی انرژی باد و کارایی توربین‌های بادی در استان کرمانشاه با ملاحظات اقلیمی

در این تحقیق، با محاسبه ی پتانسیل باد در محدوده ی ایستگاه های همدید استان کرمانشاه، کارایی و ارزیابی اقتصادی 10 مدل توربین بادی برای بهره گیری از انرژی بادی بررسی شد. برای این منظور، از داده های سرعت باد در دوره ی آماری مشترک 2009-2013 در مقیاس زمانی 3 ساعته و نرم افزارهای wasp و windographer بهره گرفته شد و پارامترهای احتمال تولید انرژی، ضریب ظرفیت و خروجی انرژی سالانه ی توربین های مختلف برآورد شد. سپس، ارزیابی اقتصادی هریک از توربین ها انجام و اقتصادی ترین توربین و محدوده در استان کرمانشاه معرفی شد . با بررسی ضریب ظرفیت توربین ها روشن شد که توربین 500 کیلوواتی در تمام ایستگاه ها بهترین کارایی را دارد. همچنین، بهترین کارایی این توربین در ایستگاه های گیلان غرب، تازه آباد و سومار برآورد شده است. میزان تولید انرژی سالانه ی توربین 2000 کیلوواتی، از 2 گیگاوات ساعت در سال در ایستگاه کنگاور تا 6.7 گیگاوات ساعت در سال در ایستگاه گیلان غرب متغیر است. با محاسبه ی شاخص نسبت منفعت به هزینه مشخص شد که احداث نیروگاه در محدوده ی ایستگاه گیلان غرب در تمامی انواع مختلف توربین صرفه ی اقتصادی بیشتری درمقایسه با مناطق دیگر دارد. تولید برق با هیچ یک از توربین های بادی موردبررسی در محدوده ی ایستگاه های اسلام آباد، کنگاور، سرپل ذهاب، روانسر، سنقر، هرسین، جوانرود و قصرشیرین اقتصادی نیست.

Wind Energy Economic Assessment and Performance of Wind Turbines in Kermanshah Province with Climatic Considerations

IntroductionGlobal warming and climate change are nowadays significant challenges for humankind. It is widely and generally accepted that the increase of greenhouse gases emissions (GHGs) in the atmosphere are caused by anthropogenic effects especially in modernized and industrialized countries. Consequently, cleaner energy generation is needed in order to reduce global GHGs emissions (Waewsak et al., 2014). Wind energy becomes today a promising option to complement the conventional energy source, especially in region where the existing power plants are not sufficient to match the increasing electricity demand. This success is principally due the rapid growth of the wind technology which led the wind power to be more competitive by reducing the cost of electricity produced (Djamai and Merzouk, 2011). Since there has no comprehensive wind potential study in Kermanshah province, it is necessary to pay this important subject to reply for increased demand of electricity. Thus this paper aimed to assess economical usage of wind power in Kermanshah province. MethodologyIn this study we assessed economic feasibility of wind energy usage at 13 sites in Kermanshah province. In order to carry out the research, 3hour wind speed data in 2009 to 2013, topography, land cover and obstacle maps were used, and ten models of wind turbines with different rated power were investigated. It has been calculated Capacity Factor, Operating Probability of wind turbines, and Annual Energy Production for selected turbines in 0.03m surface roughness using WAsP and Windographer software. Economical evaluation was down by Net Present value method and benefit costs analysis (B/C) in 13 sits and 10 models of wind turbines. Also in this research it was used Extra Investment Analysis (EIA) method to choose the best project from the initial Selected Projects. After investigation of cost analysis, it was determined the most economical wind turbine and site for utilization wind energy in Kermanshah province.Results and discussionThe maximum Capacity Factor of selected turbines has calculated in Gilanqarb (46.4%), Tazeabad (44.2%) and Somar (39.2%). This is because of different wind climatology of these sites in comparison with the other sites in the Kermanshah province. In the other words orography characteristics of these sites leads to more nocturnally mean wind speed.The costs of the construction and maintenance of a wind farm include initial Capital Costs (turbine price and costs civil work), and also operation, maintenance and Repair costs. On the other hand, the proceeds from the sale of electricity generated should be borne by the costs incurred. The cheapest turbine is 500 kW machine with 707 thousand dollars and the most expensive is 2000 kW machine with 2900 thousand dollars.Benefit costs analysis indicated wind power plant construction in Gilanqarb area is more economical than other areas with all turbines except for 1300 kW machines which is more economical in Tazeabad. Also the most economical machine is 2000 kW turbine in Gilanqarb area. The cost of wind power plant construction whit one 2000 kW turbine is 15.4 Billion toman right now, while the proceeds from the sale of electricity generated is 21.49 Billion toman in life time of machine. So this project is the most economical with benefitcost ratio equal to 1.4 in comparison with other project in the study area. Obviously, the results of economic analysis will also be different if the prices used in economic analysis, such as the price of a turbine, the price of electricity or the exchange rate change.Conclusion The results showed 750 kW and 800 kW machines have maximum Operating Probability of wind turbines and also it was the highest in Tazeabad site with 80 to 89%. While Capacity Factor has the highest value for 500 kW machine in all sites. Of course this turbine has the highest value in Gilanqarb (46.4%), Tazeabad (44.2%) and Somar (39.2%) sites. The most Annual Energy Production (AEP) acquired for 2000 kW turbine which is due to its high rated capacity. Calculated AEP for selected turbines vary between about 2 GWh in Kangavar to 6.7 GWh in Gilanqarb in the year.BenefitCost index showed that wind power plant construction in Gilanqarb area is more economical than other areas with more turbines, and also the most economical machine is 2000 kW turbine in this area. Finally Calculations showed that usage of wind energy is not economical with any turbine in EslamabadQarb, Kangavar, Sarpolzahab, Ravansar, Sonqor, Harsin, Javanrood and QasreShirin.