probabilistic analysis of seismic hazard in ardabil province with r-crisis

In this article, the methods and software used for seismic hazard analysis are presented. ardabil province is part of the western alborz tectonic unit-azerbaijan. azerbaijan region is considered one of the tectonically active regions. the main activity of this region is the result of the movement of the arabian block, which affects the north-western corner of iran, the caucasus mountains and eastern turkey by 3 cm per year. this research was conducted to determine the seismic hazard of ardabil province using a probabilistic method. after determining the characteristics of seismic sources, the seismicity or time distribution of the earthquake event was investigated and a regression relationship was used to determine the seismicity of each seismic zone. determining the ground motion resulting from an earthquake event of any possible magnitude in the site, which may occur at any possible point of each source area, was done using attenuation relationships. finally, the uncertainty in the location of the earthquake and its magnitude were combined in determining the ground motion parameters to determine the probability in which the ground motion parameter occurs in a certain period. the calculations were performed using the r-crisis software utilizing the gutenberg-richter seismicity model. this study revealed that the north and southwest faults of ardabil province are the most active source in terms of seismic hazard. the maximum value of the magnitude of the earthquake for ardabil province for the return period of 475 years was obtained at 8.2-8.8.