the dynamics of substitution elongations between fossil fuel carriers in iran: policy guidelines for gas consumption in the industrial sector on the horizon 2025 using kalman filter approach

The present paper explains the dynamics of substitution tensions between fossil energy carriers in iran: policy guidelines for gas consumption in the industrial sector on the horizon 2025 using the space model and kalman filter approach for the years 2006-2019 in the form of quarterly data. based on the model estimation results; price and revenue elasticity of kerosene, gasoline, gas oil, furnace oil and liquefied petroleum gas -0.14, -0.07, -0.46, -0.10 and -0.24 and 0.48, / 06 0, 0.17, 0.48 and 0.01. because the price elasticity of all four products is less than one, increasing the prices increases manufacturers’ costs, and increasing costs slow down the pace of gas replacement. there is a direct relationship between sales tariffs and natural gas demand, which means that with a one percent increase in sales tariffs and liberalization of kerosene, gasoline, gas oil, fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas prices; gas demand respectively; 0.46, 0.34, 0.004, 0.17 and 0.11 will increase. as a result, natural gas is a stretchable commodity in the long run. also, the highest price elasticity and substitution elasticity among petroleum products with natural gas up to the horizon of 1404, respectively; related to gas oil, furnace oil, kerosene, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas. in other words, as a result of the implementation of the above policies, the share of crude oil in the initial energy supply has decreased from 89.5 to 42.5 percent. furthermore, the share of natural gas has increased from 8.5 to 63.5 percent. as a result, the country is currently far from the goals set out in the document.