a statistical approach and analysis computing based on autoregressive integrated moving averages models to predict covid-19 outbreak in iraq

A time series has been adopted for the numbers of people infected with the covid-19 pandemic in iraq for a whole year, starting from the first infection recorded on february 18, 2020 until the end of february 2021, which was collected in the form of weekly observations and at a size of 53 observations. the study found the quality and suitability of the autoregressive moving average model from order (1,3) among a group of autoregressive moving average models. this model was built according to the diagnostic criteria. these criteria are the akaike information criterion, bayesian information criterion, and hannan & quinn criterion models. the study concluded that this model from order (1,3) is good and appropriate, and its predictions can be adopted in making decisions.