forecasting the numbers of cardiac diseases patients by using box-jenkins model in time series analysis

The aim of this study is analysis time series with using (box and jenkins ) method by identification, estimation, diagnosis, checking of model, forecasting to find the beast forecasting model to the number of patient with cardiac in misan province by using the monthly data of the period (2005- 2016) by using spss version (26).the result of data analysis show that the proper and suitable model is autoregression of order arima (1,1,0) .according to this model the study forecast the numbers of patients with cardiac diseases the next years in monthly , so the forecasting values represented the scours time series data that deal to the efficiency of the model.