طراحی سناریوهای آینده صنعت نشر کتاب ایران

هدف: هدف از انجام این پژوهش ارائه سناریوهای محتمل و مطلوب برای آینده صنعت نشر کتاب ایران است تا کلیه تلاش‌‌ها برای دوری از جایگاه و سناریوی نامطلوب برای تحقق هرچه بهتر و سریع‌‌تر سناریوی مطلوب و ایده‌‌آل بسیج شود.روش‌: این تحقیق با رویکرد کیفی (تفسیرگرایی) و به لحاظ نوع تحقیق، کاربردی است و ابزار گردآوری داده‌‌ها، مصاحبه است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش خبرگان صنعت نشر کتاب هستند. روش نمونه‌‌گیری گلوله برفی است. با پیروی از قاعده اشباع نظری از 10 ناشر مطرح کشوری که عمدتاً در تهران فعال هستند، مصاحبه شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌‌ها از روش شبکه جهانی کسب‌وکار که کاربردی‌‌ترین روش سناریونویسی است استفاده شد.یافته‌‌ها: یافته‌‌های این پژوهش چهار سناریو را برای آینده صنعت نشر کتاب کشور ارائه می‌‌دهد. این چهار سناریو عبارتند از توسعه (سیاست‌‌های تحول‌‌آفرین و فرهنگ‌‌سازی)، اتلاف (سیاست‌‌های تحول‌‌آفرین و عدم فرهنگ‌‌سازی)، بیابان کتاب (سیاست‌‌های گذشته و عدم فرهنگ‌‌سازی)، و بن‌‌بست (سیاست‌‌های گذشته و فرهنگ‌‌سازی). این چهار سناریو بر مبنای نظر خبرگان بودند که برای آینده صنعت نشر کتاب کشور تبیین و تشریح شدند. سناریوی توسعه سناریویی مطلوب است که سیاست‌‌ها در آن تحول‌‌آفرین بوده و فرهنگ‌‌سازی در بالاترین سطح خود انجام شده است و این صنعت در بهترین اوضاع متصور خود قرار دارد و سناریو بیابان کتاب با داشتن بیشترین حالات نامطلوب با عدم فرهنگ‌‌سازی و سیاست‌‌های گذشته، سناریویی بدبینانه است.اصالت/ ارزش: نتایج این پژوهش می‌‌تواند به مدیران و متولیان حوزه فرهنگ و علم در تصمیم‌‌گیری‌‌های خود کمک کند. بر اساس سناریوی مطلوب (سناریوی توسعه)، پیشنهادهایی برای شکل‌‌گیری این آینده مطلوب در روشن شدن مسیر و تقویت این صنعت در آینده پیش‌‌روی نشر کشورمان مطرح است.

designing the future scenarios of book publishing industry in iran

objective: the purpose of this research was to provide possible and desirable scenarios for the future of the book publishing industry in iran, so that all efforts can be mobilized to avoid the unfavorable position and scenario and to realize the favorable and ideal scenario as quickly as possible.methodology: the governing paradigm of this research is the qualitative paradigm. in terms of the type of research, it is an applied research and in terms of the type of data, it is qualitative too and the data collection tool is the interview. the statistical population of this research is the book publishing industry experts. the sampling method in this research is the snowball method. following the theoretical saturation rule, 10 prominent countrywide publishers who are mainly active in tehran have been interviewed. the global business network (gbn) method, which is the most practical scenario writing method was used to analyze the data.results: the findings of this research provide four scenarios for the future of the country’s book publishing industry. these four scenarios are development (transformational policies and culture building), waste (transformational policies and lack of culture building), book desert (policies of the past and lack of culture building), and impasse (policies of the past and culture building). these four scenarios were based on the opinions of experts, which were identified and explained for the future of the country’s book publishing industry. as it is evident, the development scenario is the desired scenario. it is a scenario in which policies have been transformative and culture building has been carried out at its highest level and this industry has been in its best imagined situation, and the book desert scenario with the most unfavorable situations due to the lack of culture building and the domination of past policies is pessimistic one.originality/value: despite the value and importance of book market, both culturally and economically and profitably, the low per capita position of reading in iran among the countries of the world and the existence of many challenges and problems in the country’s publishing industry necessitate the need to examine this index that is culturally important. since the research carried out in the field of publishing industry was only an analysis of the current situation at the national or provincial level or they provided some solutions to get out of the challenges, no research has investigated the future and possible scenarios for iran’s book publishing industry. futures study has been and is one of the most important challenges of researchers and leaders of the country in recent years. therefore, considering the increasing importance of the mentioned categories, it was decided to investigate the futures study of the market and book publishing in iran. of course, there are various methods and tools for futures study and in this research, the scenario-writing method was used, because the best response to deep uncertainty is a type of strategy that is predicted for a future instead of being optimal. it is clear that this method is responsive to many different futures and evolves along with the emergence of new information over time. today, expert managers know that using the scenario method works much better than the traditional schools of strategic planning. therefore, the results of this research can greatly help managers and trustees of the field of culture and science in their decisions. based on the desired scenario (development scenario), some suggestions were made for the formation of this desirable future in clarifying the path and strengthening this industry in the future of publishing in the country.