ارزیابی نقش شاخص‌های اقلیمی در توسعه گردشگری با استفاده از تکنیک anp-fuzzy (مطالعه موردی: استان فارس)

 گردشگری بخش عمده‌ای از اقتصاد جهانی را تشکیل می‌دهد که به‌شدت تحت تاثیر شرایط اقلیمی است. یکی از ارکان اصلی توسعه گردشگری هر منطقه‌ای، داشتن وضعیت اقلیمی مساعد و تعیین مکان‌های مطلوب گردشگری برای گردشگران است. استان فارس به دلیل داشتن میراث‌های طبیعی، ویژگی‌های متنوع اقلیمی، آثار و ابنیه تاریخی و فرهنگی، توانایی بسیاری برای رونق دادن به صنعت گردشگری دارد. ازاین‌رو هدف این پژوهش تعیین پهنه‌های مطلوب توسعه گردشگری بر اساس شاخص‌های اقلیمی است. روش پژوهش حاضر توصیفی – تحلیلی است. برای تحلیل الگوی توسعه گردشگری این استان از تکنیک fuzzy-anp و نرم‌افزار arc gis- super decision استفاده شد. نتایج ارزش‌گذاری شاخص‌های مطالعاتی نشان می‌دهد که شاخص میانگین دمای ماهیانه با احتساب وزنی برابر با 0.239 جایگاه نخست اثرگذاری را به خود اختصاص داده است. شاخص‌های میانگین بارش ماهیانه و میانگین رطوبت نسبی به ترتیب با اختصاص ارزش‌های 0.157 و 0.143 جایگاه‌های دوم و سوم میزان اثرگذاری را کسب نموده‌اند. در انتها لایه‌های رقومی وزن داده‌شده را با استفاده از عملیات همپوشانی fuzzy overly و استفاده از تابع جمع تلفیق نموده تا ارزش نهایی هر یک از پیکسل‌ها و بر اساس وزن داده‌شده تمامی لایه‌ها مشخص گردد. میزان وزن به‌دست‌آمده در نقشه نهایی پهنه‌بندی الگوی آسایش اقلیمی گردشگری استان فارس محاسبه‌شده است. با استفاده از طبقه‌بندی شکست طبیعی، پهنه‌بندی نهایی در 5 کلاس آسایش اقلیمی نامطلوب تا آسایش اقلیمی خیلی مطلوب طبقه‌بندی‌شده است. بیشترین میزان مساحت استان را پهنه‌های گردشگری باقابلیت مطلوب (38.2) به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. پهنه‌های باقابلیت گردشگری نامطلوب با اختصاص نزدیک به 35 درصد از مساحت استان فارس، در رتبه بعدی این طبقه‌بندی قرارگرفته است.  به‌صورت کلی می‌توان گفت که با در نظرگیری پهنه‌های باقابلیت بسیار مطلوب و مطلوب گردشگری، نزدیک به 45 درصد از مساحت استان فارس دارای قابلیت عالی برای توسعه گردشگری می‌باشد. شهرستان‌های واقع در بخش شرقی، جنوب شرقی، شمال و شمال شرقی استان نیز دارای آسایش اقلیمی گردشگری نامطلوب می‌باشند.

evaluating the role of climatic indicators in tourism development using anp-fuzzy technique (case study: fars province)

abstract tourism is a significant sector of the global economy that is highly influenced by climatic conditions. one of the key elements in the development of tourism in any region is having favorable climatic conditions and identifying desirable tourist destinations. fars province, due to its natural heritage, diverse climatic features, historical and cultural attractions, has great potential to boost the tourism industry. therefore, the aim of this study is to determine desirable tourism development zones based on climatic indicators. the present research method is descriptive-analytical. the fuzzy-anp technique and arc gis-super decision software were used to analyze the tourism development pattern in this province. the results of the evaluation of the study indicators show that the monthly average temperature index, with a weight of 0.239, has the most significant impact. the monthly average precipitation and relative humidity indexes have obtained the second and third positions of influence with values of 0.157 and 0.143, respectively. in the end, the assigned digital layers were combined using the fuzzy overlay operation and the summation function to determine the final value of each pixel based on the assigned weights. the calculated weight in the final map represents the classification of the regional climate comfort pattern of fars province. using the classification of natural breaks, the final classification is divided into 5 classes, ranging from undesirable climate comfort to highly desirable climate comfort. the largest area of the province is assigned to zones with desirable potential (38.2). undesirable tourism potential zones cover nearly 35% of the province’s area, ranking second in this classification. in general, considering zones with very desirable and desirable tourism potential, nearly 45% of the area of fars province has excellent potential for tourism development. counties located in the eastern, southeastern, northern, and northeastern parts of the province also have undesirable tourism climate comfort. extended abstract introductiontourism is one of the fastest-growing industries in the second half of the twentieth century. the tourism industry is often used as a key driver of economic growth in both developed and developing countries, contributing the most significant and rapid growth among various economic sectors. factors influencing tourism include geographic location, topography, scenery, plant and animal cover, and climate, but it is the climate that determines the attractiveness of a tourism region. unfortunately, like many other provinces in the country, fars province suffers from the phenomenon of centralization and spatial injustice. several counties, particularly those close to the provincial center, face issues such as the lack of necessary facilities and services, unemployment, and high rates of migration. many of the region’s potentials, especially its tourism capacities, are underutilized due to lack of awareness, inadequate logical planning, and insufficient investment in various sectors, making them less recognized and often overlooked. what appears in fars province reflects an unfavorable image of inequality and underutilization of tourism potentials, especially in comparison to the national level, indicating that proper and rational utilization of the province’s tourism sector has not been realized. in this regard, there is a need for a review and reorganization of this sector in all counties of the province to create a logical and balanced regional structure. methodologyin terms of research methodology, this study is descriptive-analytical, which is practically applicable in tourism planning. to prepare climate indices affecting fars province’s tourism, a documentary study method was used. a comparison between climate indices and their impact was made based on the opinions of 15 academic elites. the selection criteria for these elites included theoretical expertise, practical experience, willingness, research participation capability, and accessibility. initially, spatial data were digitized, and then, based on the existing conditions and the factors under investigation, the indices were compared pairwise using the analytic network process (anp) model within the super decision software. subsequently, data matching and analysis were conducted using the fuzzy logic model in the arc gis environment, and the final map for the development of tourism in fars province based on climate indices was extracted in the gis environment.