تاثیر خشکسالی‌ اقلیمی دودهه (1390-1370) برناپایداری توسعه در دهستان هشیوارشهرستان داراب

بدون تردید نخستین گام به منظور مقابله با خشکسالی و پیامدهای آن شناخت و درک دقیق این پدیده و تاثیرات ناشی از آن در ابعاد مختلف است تا بتوان براساس آن، راهبردها و راهکارهای اثربخشی را تدوین و به کار گرفت. از آنجا که دهستان هشیوار ازشهرستان داراب به عنوان دهستانی با قابلیت کشاورزی خوب شناخته شده است، به نظر می رسد اقتصاد این روستاها به میزان بارندگی و منابع آب وابستگی مستقیم داشته باشد. هدف از تحقیق حاضر، واکاوی و تبین اثرات خشکسالی بر اقتصاد و مهاجرت روستایی در دهستان هشیوار شهرستان داراب است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر روش  توصیفی تحلیلی و از نظر ماهیت از نوع پژوهش های کاربردی بوده که نحوه گردآوری داده ها به صورت  کتابخانه ای و میدانی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق، 17روستای دهستان هشیوار (8403نفر از10روستای دارای جمعیت این دهستان)می باشدکه حجم نمونه براساس فرمول کوکران 286نفربرآورد گردید. برای تحلیل داده ها از آمار استنباطی(آزمون t ) و همچنین به منظور بررسی پایش خشکسالی از شاخص های معتبر استاندارد بارش (spi) و درصد نرمال بارش (pnpi) استفاده گردید. نتایج بدست آمده براساس شاخص spi  نشان می دهدکه طی سالهای1382، 1384 و 1387 منطقه مورد مطالعه با خشکسالی متوسط و درسال 1374 با ترسالی بسیار شدید مواجه بوده است. همچنین براساس شاخص pnpi در سالهای  1380و 1382 منطقه با خشکسالی ضعیف و در سال های 1378، 1379، 1386 با خشکسالی شدید و در سال های 1384، 1387 با خشکسالی بسیار شدید مواجه بوده است. خشکسالی های این دوره سبب کاهش سطوح زیر کشت در روستاهای دهستان هشیوار گردیده و ناپایداری توسعه در زمینه های اقتصادی واجتماعی بخصوص  کاهش درآمد ومهاجرت را به همراه داشته است.دربررسی پرسشنامه ای تاثیر خشکسالی بر ابعاداقتصادی و اجتماعی مردم روستاهای منطقه مورد مطالعه، 73 درصد به تاثیرخیلی زیاد و 25 درصد به تاثیر زیاد و2درصد به تاثیرکم آن اذعان داشته اند.

The Impact of Two Decades of Climate Drought (1991-2011) on Developmental Instability in Heshiwar Village, Darab County

Undoubtedly, the first step in tackling drought and its consequences is to understand and understand this phenomenon and its implications in different dimensions so that effective strategies and strategies can be formulated and applied. Since Heshivar village of Darab County is known as a village with good agricultural potential, the economy of these villages appears to be directly dependent on rainfall and water resources. The purpose of this study is to investigate and explain the effects of drought on rural economy and migration in Heshivar village of Darab County. The present study is descriptiveanalytical and in nature it is a kind of applied research that the method of data collection is library and field. The statistical population of the study is 17 villages of Heshiwar village (8403 out of 10 villages with population of this village). The sample size was 286 according to Cochran formula. Inferential statistics (Ttest) and validated standard precipitation (SPI) and percentage of normal precipitation (PNPI) were used for data analysis. The results based on the Spi index show that the study area has experienced moderate drought during the years of 2003, 2005 and 2008, and in the year of 1995 there has been a very severe wet season. Also according to PNPI index in the years 2001 and 2003 the region was experiencing poor drought and in the years of 1999, 2000, and 2007, there was severe drought and in 2005, 2008, there was a very severe drought. Droughts during this period have reduced the cultivation levels in the villages of Heshiwar and have led to the instability of development in the economic and social areas, especially the reduction of income and migration. According to a questionnaire, the effect of drought on the social and economic dimensions of the rural population in the study area, 73% believed very high impact, 25% high impact and 2% believed it to be less effective.   Extended Abstract   Introduction        Any unforeseen and unexpected natural event that would undermine economic, social and physical capabilities is considered to be a natural disaster(Keshavarz Karimi,2008:267). Studying the drought in Iran shows that although such crises are often not a widespread problem in the country, in general no region in the country has been immune from this phenomenon and experiences the effects of this destructive phenomenon depending on its natural location. Slow. The frequent droughts in Iran, which are characteristic of the arid and semiarid climate of the country, put heavy pressure on the country’s economy. So that almost every year a significant portion of the country’s revenue can be used to meet economic and social development goals to tackle economic and social crises caused by droughts. Since Heshiwar village of Darab County is well known for its agricultural potential, the economy of these villages seems to be directly dependent on rainfall and water resources, However, in recent years, declines in rainfall have led to severe declines in agricultural and livestock production, resulting in a decline in the income and migration of many villagers in the region. Therefore, the present study was designed to identify the effects of drought on rural households in Heshiwar. The present study also seeks to answer the following question: Have recent droughts caused developmental instability in the villages of Heshivar in Darab County?   Methodology    The present study is an applieddescriptiveanalytical study with field studies to evaluate the droughts of the study area during the period 19911993 using validated standard precipitation (SPI) and normal percentage (PNPI) indices is. The effects of these droughts on the socioeconomic components of rural areas during the years 19911993 have been studied by using population statistics calendars and by using onesample Ttest and analysis of the results of questionnaires in Spss environment. The statistical population of the study consisted of 17 inhabited and uninhabited villages of Heshiwar village in Darab County in 2011. The sample included 10 villages with 2324 households with 8493 population.                                                                                                                                                Results and discussion    According to the SPI index, a very severe oneyear rainfall occurred in the city in 1995 and most of the rainfall was normal for about 12 years. According to this index, average drought occurred in 2003, 2005 and 2008. According to the PNPI index, a very severe wet season occurred in the County in 1995. Also wet humidity has occurred in 1997 and 2004 in this County. Average humidity occurred three times during 1998, 2006 and 2010. Rainfall was normal for 4 years. According to this index, moderate drought occurred in 2001, 2003 and severe drought three times and in 1999, 2000 and 2007, and finally severe drought occurred twice in 2005 and 2008 in this County. A survey of the NDVI index for 1993 shows that the level of agricultural products was 19327500 square meters and in 2002 reached 7818300 square meters. Based on a comparison of different population and housing censuses in the periods, 1375,1385,1390 the population and number of households in most of the villages of Darab city and the villages in question have increased, although the drought has reduced the area under cultivation and the number of livestock. The villagers have been reduced, but due to the proximity of the villages to the town of Darab city, the villagers come to the town of Darab County every day for service and construction work and return to their homes at night and at night they return to their rural homes and villages, which are usually a long distance from Darab city, have been displaced or have been declining due to rural migration. Given that the T. value is significant at the 95% confidence level, the relationship between drought and economic instability and rural migration is significant and the answer to the research question is positive. In this regard, it should be noted that in the economic context the only variable the role of brokers has nothing to do with the drought debate and is not meaningful. In the social component, the role of variables: the occurrence of psychological stress and the distribution of credit among the villagers, has nothing to do with the drought debate and there is no meaningful relationship between them. Also in the environmental component, the reduction of the area of cultivation and the lack of villagers’ tendency to cultivate crops were not significantly related to drought and it’s not meaningful.                                                                            Conclusion     Using the data collected from the questionnaires, villagers’ view of drought was investigated. The results show that drought has occurred in all the studied villages. The impact of the drought on the villages has left some villages (Zargaran, Bayadeh, New Castle, Hirbadan, Siahan, Gareshkon, Dekuyeh, Dehkoye, Khengab, Banoj) deserted. According to the findings of the study, the impact of drought on the social and economic dimensions of people living in the studied villages was 73% Very high, 25% high and 2% low. Investigating the amount of agricultural production in rural areas shows a sharp decline in agricultural production and a decrease in yield per unit area. Since most of the villagers are irrigated, the decrease in rainfall has greatly affected their yield. Livestock production has also been declining, and the number of livestock in the county has declined yearonyear, reflecting the negative impact of drought on livestock. Recent droughts have severely affected their lives and have caused the migration of villagers to Darab city or other County of Fars province such as Marvdasht and Saadat Abad. Statistical analysis of the data showed that the significance level of most of the questions was less than 0/05, indicating that there is a significant relationship between these effects and the drought situation.