اثرات تغییر رژیمی گردشگری بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌های گردشگرپذیر: کاربردی از مدل انتقال ملایم

اثرپذیری گسترده بخش گردشگری از نوسانات ارزی و سطوح متفاوت توسعه گردشگری در استان‌های مختلف در ایران، باعث می‌شود که اثرات گردشگری بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌ها متمایز از یکدیگر باشد. بررسی این موضوع در قالب تعیین اثرات تغییر رژیمی گردشگری بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌ها، دیدگاه برنامه‌ریزان منطقه‌ای در کشور بهبود خواهد بخشید. از اینرو، این مطالعه به بررسی فرضیه رشد اقتصادی مبتنی بر گردشگری و اثرات تغییر رژیمی گردشگری بر رشد اقتصادی چهار استان بزرگ گردشگرپذیر (اصفهان، خراسان رضوی، فارس وگیلان) پرداخته است. بدین منظور، از تکنیک های غیرخطی و مدل انتقال ملایم (star) برای سنجش اعتبار فرضیه وجود رابطه ی غیرخطی بین گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی استفاده شده است. همچنین، از علیت گرنجر برای بررسی فرضیه تحقیق در دوره مورد مطالعه 13871396 استفاده شده است. نتایج مطالعه، اثرات غیرخطی بین گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی را تایید کرده است، بطوریکه نتایج بین استانی، رفتار متمایز و اثرات متفاوتی را نشان داده است. طبق نتایج بدست آمده، در استان های اصفهان و فارس، گردشگری تاثیری بر ارزش تولید ناخالص منطقه‌ای ندارد. علاوه بر این، خطی بودن این رابطه برای استان های خراسان رضوی و گیلان رد می شود و گردشگری تاثیری به سزایی بر ارزش تولید ناخالص این استان ها دارد. جریان غیرخطی علیت گرنجر در همه ی موارد اثبات علیت از ارزش تولید ناخالص منطقه‌ای به گردشگری را تایید می کند. لذا ارزش تولید ناخالص منطقه‌ای بر گردشگری تمامی استان های اصفهان، خراسان رضوی، فارس و گیلان تاثیر قابل توجهی دارد. بنابراین می توان توصیه نمود که با بهبود رشد اقتصادی جهت توسعه گردشگری تلاش نمود. همچنین بایستی تصمیم گیران اقتصادی وجود رابطه ی غیرخطی در ارتباط پویا ی بین گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی را برای تعیین سطح آستانه ای از منافع بالقوه توسعه گردشگری در برنامه ریزی های آینده مورد توجه قرار دهند.

Regime-Switching Effects of Tourism on regional Growth of Touristy Provinces: Applied of smooth transition autoregressive model

Abstract            The High influenc of foreign exchange fluctuations on the tourism sector and different levels of tourism development in provinces of Iran makes distinct the impacts of tourism on the economic growth of the provinces Towards each other. Studying this issue in terms of determining the effects of tourism RegimeSwitching on the economic growth of provinces will improve the perspective of regional planners. Therefore, this study investigates the hypothesis of economic growth based on tourism and RegimeSwitching Effects of tourism on regional growth of four of greatest touristfriendly provinces (Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Fars and Gilan). In order to, by applying nonlinear techniques, it was reviewed that whether tourism activity leads – in the long run – to economic growth, or, economic growth leads to tourism growth. For this purpose, the validity of the hypothesis of nonlinear relationship between tourism and economic growth using smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR) was investigated. Also, Granger causality has been used to investigate the research hypothesis in period 20082017. The results have confirmed the nonlinear effects between tourism and economic growth, so that interprovincial results showing distinct behavior and different effects.  The results showed that tourism has no effect on value of regional product for provinces of Isfahan and Fars. Moreover, the linearity of this relation is rejected for provinces of Khorasan Razavi and Gilan; and tourism has a great effect on value of gross domestic product these provinces. The nonlinearity Granger causality tests confirm in all cases the causality from value of gross domestic product to tourism. Therefore, value of gross domestic product has considerable effect on tourism in all provinces of Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Fars and Gilan. So, it can be advised that it was tried by improving economic growth for tourism development. Also, economic decisionmakers in a dynamic nonlinear relationship between tourism and economic growth to the threshold level of the potential benefits of tourism should be considered in future planning.   Keywords: tourism, economic growth, nonlinear smooth transition model, Touristy Provinces.               Extended Abstract Introduction:         One of the important factors in achieving sustainable economic growth and development is the attention to the tourism sector, which is the most important policy goal in attracting domestic and foreign tourists. Considering the importance of the Iran economy’s dependence on foreign exchange earnings from crude oil and its products, the role of tourism development in reducing this dependency and its position in the country’s economic development plans is very important. Therefore, examining the impact of tourism on economic growth, especially in the regional economies, is important for different countries. In this regard, due to the wide impact of currency fluctuations on tourism sector and different levels of tourism development in different provinces of Iran, it makes distinct the effects of tourism on provincial economic growth. Studying this issue in terms of determining the effects of tourism RegimeSwitching on the economic growth of provinces will improve the perspective of regional planners. Therefore, this study investigates the hypothesis of economic growth based on tourism and RegimeSwitching Effects of tourism on regional growth of four of greatest touristfriendly provinces (Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Fars and Gilan). Methodology:        In this study, the purpose of tourism RegimeSwitching is changes from linear to nonlinear, and the effects of this changes will be analyzed. For this purpose, the validity of the hypothesis of nonlinear relationship between tourism and economic growth using smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR) was investigated. To identify the nonlinear model, we use a framework developed by Terasvirta (1994). Also, Granger causality has been used to investigate the research hypothesis in period 20082017. One of the simple and reliable methods for finding the roots of nonlinear equations is the Grid Search method, which we do here is similar to the study of Awokuse Christopoulos (2009). The Data required in this study includes the GDP per million rial for the target provinces (Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Fars and Gilan) and the number of tourism trips in these provinces, which were obtained from the Iranian Statistical Center. Findings:          Linear causality from tourism to production and from production to tourism were studied separately. The results show that the linear relationship from tourism to production is rejected for all four targeted provinces. Regarding the linear relation from production to tourism, the results show that this relationship is not rejected for Khorasan Razavi and Isfahan provinces but for Fars and Guilan provinces the linear relation from production to tourism is rejected. Overall, it can be said that the results of the study confirm the nonlinear effects of tourism and economic growth, so that interprovincial results showing distinct behavior and different effects. The results of survey linear relation and nonlinear relation showed that tourism has no effect on value of regional product for provinces of Isfahan and Fars. Moreover, the linearity of this relation is rejected for provinces of Khorasan Razavi and Gilan; and tourism has a great effect on value of gross domestic product these provinces. The nonlinearity Granger causality tests confirm in all cases the causality from value of gross domestic product to tourism. Therefore, value of gross domestic product has considerable effect on tourism in all provinces of Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Fars and Gilan Conclusion:          Based on the results of the research, it can be analyzed that: The absence of a linear relationship from tourism to regional GDP in the provinces that are the greatest touristfriendly provinces in the Iran can be due to two factors: First, the form of the relationship may not be correct and the linear relationship must be changed to a nonlinear relationship. Second, in provinces where are not the final destination for travel and the overnight stays is low (generally, central provinces or border small provinces), tourism is not a significant factor in regional development (increasing regional GDP). Khorasan Razavi and Isfahan provinces are highest ranking of provinces with foreign tourist attraction, respectively, due to the fluctuations in foreign tourist arrivals during the years studied (mainly due to political events), in fact linear models cannot represent tourism behavior in these provinces.  Khorasan Razavi province have higher length of stay than other provinces and on the other hand, due to the geographical extent of this province and the higher personovernight stays than other provinces, tourism density is higher. It also has the highest tourism infrastructure in the entire Iran provinces, which can be attributed to the linear link between production and tourism. The same argument, albeit less strongly, is also applicable to the Isfahan province to confirm the linear link from production to tourism. By changing the linear situation to the nonlinear situation, there is a causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in Khorasan Razavi and Gilan provinces. In contrast, for the other two provinces this situation is not due to the high share of tourism in the two provinces and the high persistence of tourism in these provinces. The higher length of stay of these two provinces is important because the peak periods of tourism in these provinces are not limited to a specific season or a few specific days of the year and tourism has a wider distribution throughout the year. In sum, it is worth noting that economic decisionmakers in a dynamic nonlinear relationship between tourism and economic growth to the threshold level of the potential benefits of tourism should be considered in future planning.