آینده‌نگاری ارتقای تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در برابر خشک‌سالی مبتنی بر آموزش‌های عملی روستائیان، مطالعه موردی: روستاهای حوضه آبخیز قلعه‌چایی عجب‌شیر

خشک شدن دریاچه ارومیه از جمله مخاطرات محیطی که از حدود دو دهه در ایران اتفاق افتاده و بخشی از روستاهای را دچار مشکل کرده است. کاهش آسیب پذیری روستاها در برابر خشک‌سالی نیازمند توجه به ابعاد تاب‌آوری است تا بتوان از ظرفیت های درونی روستا برای کاهش آسیب پذیری استفاده نمود که این امر نیز نیازمند آموزش و مهارت است. لذا این پژوهش با هدف بررسی وضعیت تاب‌آوری روستاها حوضه آبخیز قلعه چایی عجب شیر، نقش آموزش های عملی در بهبود تاب‌آوری و در نهایت استخراج پیشران های کلیدی ارتقای تاب‌آوری روستایی در برابر خشک شدن دریاچه ارومیه صورت گرفته است. تحقیق از نوع کاربردی بوده و تحلیل داده ها به صورت توصیفی تحلیلی و همچنین با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهشی نیز است. نتایج یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که وضعیت تاب‌آوری در روستاهای مورد مطالعه در قبل و بعد از آموزش ها اختلاف معناداری در سطح 0.714 دارند. همچنین نتایج مدل تاب‌آوری حاکی از این است که میزان air در روستاها برابر با 0.51 و در بعد از آموزش برابر با 0.63 است. در نهایت نتایج تحلیل داده با نرم‌افزار میک مک نشان داد که متغیرهای توجه به کارآفرینی و اشتغال به عنوان موثرترین پیشران کلیدی مطرح است. در مرحله بعدی پیشران های انسجام اجتماعی، مشارکت اجتماعی، تعلق مکانی به روستا، مسئولیت اجتماعی، درک خطر خشک‌سالی، اصلاح الگوی کشت، شیوه های نوین آبیاری، شکل گیری و فعالیت ngo ها، مقاوم‌سازی مساکن و رعایت ضوابط فنی ساخت‌وساز قرار به عنوان پیشران های کلیدی ارتقای تاب‌آوری روستایی هستند. در نهایت باتوجه به یافته های پژوهش، پیشنهادات کاربردی ارائه شده است.

Future Study of Resilience Improvement of Rural Against Drought Based on Practical Training, A Case Study: Ghale Chaei Watershed Area

The drying of Lake Urmia is one of the environmental hazards that has occurred in Iran for two decades and has caused some problems in Rurals. Reducing the vulnerability of villages to drought requires attention to resilience dimensions, so that the village’s internal capacities can be used to reduce vulnerability, which also requires training and skill. This research was carried out with the aim of studying the resilience situation of the villages of GhaleChahi watershed, the role of practical training in improving resilience and, finally, extraction of key proponents of rural resilience to the drying of Lake Urmia. The research is applied and analyzing the data is descriptiveanalytical as well as with a futuristic approach. The results of the research showed that the resilience situation in the studied villages before and after the training had a significant difference at the level of 0.714. Also, the results of the resilience model indicate that the AIR rate in the villages is equal to 0.51 and in the training period is 0.63. The results of the data analysis with the MickMac software showed that the variables of attention to entrepreneurship and employment are considered as the most effective key proponent. In the next stage, social cohesion, social participation, village ownership, social responsibility, risk perception of drought, modification of cropping pattern, new irrigation practices, NGO formation and activity, housing rehabilitation and compliance with technical criteria for construction as a important key to rural resilience. Finally, based on the findings of the research, practical suggestions are presented. Introduction To many scholars, resilience is one of the most important approaches to a safe and secure society. The main focus of the Resilience Approach is to integrate immunity against hazards before the crisis so that communities can use their capacities and measures to reduce vulnerability and vulnerability through the use of community and instrumental capabilities. Implemented the critical situation. One of the areas affected by the drying up of Lake Urmia is the area of ​​Ghale Chai watershed in Ajabshir city. The main purpose of this research is to find a scientific answer to the questions: What is the status of resilience of villages against drying of Lake Urmia? What are the implications of education and skillbuilding in promoting rural resilience to drought? And given the resiliency of the villages, what are the key factors affecting the promotion of resilience to the drying up of Lake Urmia? Methodology The present study is based on applied purpose and descriptive method. The statistical population of this study was selected at two levels. The first level relates to the inhabitants of the villages under study, based on the results of the 2016 census of these 35 villages 29638 people and 9206 households. Since the population under study in this study consisted of people over 15 years old, out of the total of 17325 rural residents were selected as the population. Using Cochran’s formula and simple random sampling, 377 people were selected as sample size and a questionnaire was distributed according to the population of each village. The reliability of the questionnaire before and after the training was 0.842 and 0.901, respectively. The variables used in this study included 67 cases selected in five dimensions of resiliency. Results and Discussion The results showed that the t value was 2.168 at the significant level of 0.000 confirming the effectiveness of education provided to villagers in resilience. The results of multivariate regression test show that the training provided with sociocultural, environmental, economic, infrastructural and structuralinstitutional content were 0.689, 0.647, 0.514, 0.325, respectively. There is a positive and significant correlation with rural resilience of 0.302. The results of the studies show that the resilience status of the studied villages shows that among the five dimensions of environmental resilience with 21% has the highest distance from its optimal level due to the environmental nature of drought. Finally, the results of the Drought Resiliency Proposals Survey revealed that there are 12 key drivers in promoting the resilience of the villages of Qaleh Chai path against drought in Lake Urmia. Attention to Entrepreneurship and Employment in the Village, Social Cohesion, Social Participation, Rural Location, Social Responsibility, Drought Risk Understanding, Modification of Crop Patterns, New Irrigation Practices, NGO Formation and Activity, Housing Strengthening and Technical Compliance There is a builder. Conclusion The findings showed that the resilience status of the studied villages before the training was lower than the resilience status of these villages after the training. In other words, a 3month training course led to the improvement of resilience in the villages. Significance was 0.714. The results showed that in total 35 villages had a 15% increase in the five dimensions of resiliency after the 3month education period compared to the previous period; And in variables such as social capital, sense of place and social participation were more than other variables. In general, it can be said that the villagers’ economic weakness, lack of education and skills, severe dependence on land, drought, lack of appropriate social services, lack of technical standards, and most importantly lack of attention to education and interdependence among people And those responsible for the simultaneous use of indigenous knowledge and academic knowledge are among the things that have increased the vulnerability of villages to the dangers of drought. Finally, according to the findings of this study, it is suggested that through education of villagers, the vulnerability of villages to drought will be reduced.