ارزیابی اثرات خشکسالی بر توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی استراتژی بهینه معیشت پایدار در منطقه سیستان

خشکسالی یکی از پدیده‌های هواشناختی و جدایی ناپذیر از شرایط اقلیمی در کشور ایران است و پیامدهای نامطلوب به همراه خواهد داشت. با توجه به خشکسالی های دهه اخیر و اثرات سوء آن بر اقتصاد و معیشت در منطقه سیستان، هدف از مطالعه حاضر شناسایی اثرات خشکسالی بر توسعه اقتصادی در شهرستان ها با روش fahp و برنامه ریزی استراتژی بهینه معیشت پایدار با روش ftopsis در منطقه سیستان است. این پژوهش با روش پیمایشی و با استفاده از پرسشنامه و مصاحبه با 40 نفر از خبرگان و کارشناسان انجام شده است. نتایج حاکی از آنست که وزن نهایی گزینه ها (شهرستان ها) با استفاده از شاخص های میزان تاثیر خشکسالی بر توسعه پایدار اقتصادی منطقه سیستان بدست آمده شهرستان نیمروز با وزن (0.28) در اولویت نخست و شهرستان های هامون، هیرمند، زهک و زابل با وزن های 0.24، 0.22، 0.13 و 0.10 در رتبه های بعدی قرار گرفته اند. همچنین نتایج برنامه ریزی استراتژی های بهینه معیشت پایدار در مواجهه با خشکسالی، شهرستان نیمروز در معیار های تسهیلات اعتباری و وام، ارائه وام های کم بهره و اعتبارات خرد به امور مرتبط با کشاورزی، حمایت های دولتی از سرمایه گذاری در صنایع کوچک و تبدیلی و صنایع دستی از طریق اعطای تسهیلات، نیروی انسانی مستعد و تحصیل کرده ، تغییرات اقلیمی و اثرات آن بر محصولات کشاورزی از قبیل خشکسالی، سرمای زودرس و تهدید های محیطی (خشکسالی) نسبت به سایر شهرستان برتری دارد و این خود باعث شده است که شهرستان نیمروز در بدترین شرایط از لحاظ معیشت پایدار قرار گیرد و برنامه ریزی برای این منظور در این شهرستان در اولویت اول قرار بگیرد. این نتایج نشانگر عدم مدیریت کارا، برنامه ریزی و طرح زیست محیطی و اقتصادی در منطقه است و لازم است که توجه جدی به این مقوله شود. از جمله راهکارهایی که برای منطقه سیستان جهت توسعه اقتصادی و معیشت پایدار پیشنهاد می گردد اینست که مردم منطقه و کشاورزان به سمت مشاغلی به غیر از کشاورزی مانند کار در صنایع نوکار در منطقه و همچنین بازارچه مرزی روی آورند.

Assessment the Effects of Drought on Economic Development and Planning Optimal Strategy for Sustainable Livelihood in Sistan

Drought is one of the meteorological and inseparable phenomena of climatic conditions in Iran and will have adverse effects. Considering the drought in recent decades and its adverse effects on economy and livelihoods in Sistan, the purpose of this study is to identify the effects of drought on economic development in cities using FAHP method and to plan a sustainable livelihood strategy using FTOPSIS in Sistan region.  This study was conducted using a survey method, using questionnaires and interviews with 40 experts and experts. The results indicate that the weight of the options (counties) using the indicators of the effect of drought on the sustainable economic development of the Sistan region was obtained in Nimrooz city with a weight of 0.28 in the first priority and Hamoon counties, Hirmand, Zahak and Zabul with weights of 0.24, 0.22, 0.13 and 0.10 in the next rankings. Also, the results of planning optimal sustainable livelihoods strategies in the face of drought, Nimroz city in the criteria for credit and loan facilities, lowlending and microfinance loans to agricultural affairs, government support of capital In small industries, conversion and handicrafts, through the provision of facilities, prudent and educated manpower, climate change and its effects on agricultural products such as drought, premature weather and environmental threats (drought) compared to other major cities And this has caused the Nimroz County to be in the worst livelihood terms. These results indicate the lack of efficient management, planning and environmental and economic plans in the region, and it is necessary to pay close attention to this issue. Among the solutions proposed for sustainable development and economic development in Sistan, is the fact that people in the region and farmers are turning to jobs other than agriculture, such as work in the local industries, as well as border markets.Extended AbstractIntroduction:          Drought is one of the dangers facing human societies, and is one of the most important natural disasters, causing great damage to agriculture and water resources. Drought is also more complex than other natural disasters because it covers a wider geographical area and therefore affects a larger population. On the other hand, drought is one of the most costly natural disasters in terms of reducing agricultural production and severe hardship for farmers. While drought is a normal and reversible phenomenon in the climate, some people mistakenly consider it an accidental and rare occurrence. This phenomenon may occur in all areas, even in the humid and semihumid regions, although its rate can vary from region to region. In arid and semiarid regions, the limited water resources have been a limiting factor for the economic growth and development of these areas and are associated with the expansion of deserts.In recent decades, the Sistan region has experienced less drought and severe rainfall than in previous decades. These shortages in the region have caused damage to sectors, including agriculture and natural resources. In addition to the lack of rainfall in the region, the presence of 120day winds has led to an increase in agricultural risk and has always posed a serious threat to the cultivation of crops. The extent of the damage caused by drought is affected by how it is managed, as in many underdeveloped countries, drought has led to famine and many economic consequences for farmers, who are considered to be vulnerable. They have a special feature. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of drought on economic development using fuzzy hierarchical analysis (FAHP) and optimal sustainable livelihood strategy planning in Sistan region using fuzzy TOPSIS method (FTOPSIS).Methodology:      In the present study, two methods, FTOPSIS and FAHP, have been used for modeling. Figure (1) and (2) illustrate the implementation algorithm of these two techniques.Results and discussion: A. Investigating the effects of drought on sustainable economic development using fuzzy hierarchical analysis modelAccording to the experts and experts of Sistan region, indicators have been identified for the effects of drought on economic development and have been adapted using the hierarchical analysis model (FAHP) model. Given that the aim of this study is to investigate the effects of drought on the economic development of the region, prioritize and, as can be seen from Figure (4), The effects of drought on the economic development of Sistan region have the greatest impact on the city of Nimroz with the final weight (0.28) and the cities of Hamoon, Helmand, Zahak and Zabol with the weights of 0.24, 0.22, 0.13 and respectively 0.10 are next priority.B) Planning for the optimal sustainable livelihood strategy in the face of drought in Sistan region As can be seen in Figure (5), The final ranking of the options is shown according to the criteria mentioned in Table (3) for selecting the city for planning in the study area to plan the optimal sustainable livelihood strategy in the face of drought. According to it, Nimroz city is in the first priority with weight (0.51) and Hamoun, Helmand, Zahak and Zabol cities with weights of 0.43, 0.39, 0.38 and 0.36 are in the second to fourth ranks. have taken.Conclusions:         In the present study, to investigate the impact of drought on sustainable economic development from fuzzy hierarchical analysis (FAHP), Also, in order to plan the optimal sustainable livelihood strategy in the face of drought for Sistan region, a method similar to fuzzy ideal ideal (FTOPSIS) option has been used. The study criteria and options have been categorized according to previous studies and using the opinion of experts, and the relationships between them have been examined.The results of the study indicate that among the indicators that have been used to investigate the impact of drought on sustainable economic development in Sistan region, The index of declining income and increasing the amount of agricultural debt is superior, and the reason is that the job of most people in the Sistan region is agriculture, so their main income is obtained through this. Now, despite the growing spread of drought in the region, the region is not growing economically, and on the other hand, due to the damage caused by water shortages and drought to farmers’ crops, they are no longer able to pay their debts. They are not, and this is a factor that hinders sustainable economic development. On the other hand, the ranking of cities in Sistan region based on the indicators mentioned in Table (2), Nimroz city with the highest ranking with a weight of 0.28 and Zabol with a weight of 0.10 low ranked in the impact of drought indicators on sustainable economic development of the region. They have Sistan.          Comparing the studied models, it was found that both models are based on the indicators presented in Tables 2 and 3, which are the result of interviews with experts and experts in the region, and according to the research objectives, the impact of drought on sustainable development Economics and planning for optimal sustainable livelihood strategy in the face of drought for the Sistan region of Nimroz city is the first priority and Zabol city is the last priority and the reason is the centrality of Zabol city and the distance of Timrooz city from the center of the study area.