ارزیابی وضع موجود نظام سلسله مراتبی جمعیت شهرهای جنوب شرق ایران و تاثیر آن بر آینده شاخص های توسعه منطقه ای

تحلیل نظام شهری جنوب شرق کشور به دلیل اهمیت استراتژیک این منطقه و با هدف شناخت و فراهم سازی بسترهای توسعه متوازن، توزیع مناسب جمعیت و استفاده از توان های محیطی ضروری است. بنابراین شناخت پتانسیل‌ها و قابلیت های محیطی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی مختلف شهرهای بالای ده هزار نفر جمعیت در سه استان واقع در جنوب شرق ایران (کرمان، سیستان و بلوچستان و هرمزگان) با رویکرد توسعه منطقه ای، در راستای رسیدن به توسعه متوازن از دلایل نگارش این پژوهش است. هدف پژوهش حاضر این است که در ابتدا، نظام شهری مناطق جنوب شرق را مورد بررسی و کنکاش قرار داده و در ادامه با توجه به ارزیابی های وضع موجود نظام سلسله مراتب جمعیت شهری به تاثیر آن بر آینده شاخص های توسعه منطقه ای بپردازد. نتایج نشان داد؛ عدم تعادل سلسله‌مراتب شهری یکی از مشخصه های اصلی و بارز نظام شهری در منطقه جنوب شرق می باشد که سبب عدم برخورداری شهرهای کوچک از امکانات و زیرساخت‌های لازم شده است. همچنین نتایج حاصل از مدل آینده پژوهی نشان داد؛ با توجه به اهمیت شاخص های جمعیتی و تاثیر آن بر آینده شاخص های توسعه منطقه ای و دخیل بودن عناصر متعدد، به وضوح می توان از مواردی همچون؛ متغیرهای شیوه های مدیریت شهری (36) و وضعیت توسعه شاخص های انسانی (35) نام برد که به ترتیب بالاترین ارزش ستونی محاسبه شده را دارا می باشند. به عبارتی، مهم ترین ویژگی این متغیرها، تاثیرپذیری پایین و تاثیرگذاری بالاست و از آن ها به عنوان عوامل استراتژیک نام برده می شود که تقویت آن ها سبب رونق توسعه در این منطقه شده و تاثیر مثبتی بر ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی می گذارد.

Assessing the Hierarchical System of the City of Southeast Iran and its Impact on the Future of Regional Development Indicators

Analysis of the urban system of the southeast of the country is necessary because of the strategic importance of this region and with the aim of recognizing and providing a platform for balanced development, appropriate distribution of population and utilization of environmental capabilities. Therefore, recognizing the environmental, social and economical potentialities and capabilities of the cities of over 10,000 people in three provinces in southeastern Iran (Kerman, Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan) with a regional development approach, is in line with the development of a balanced development of the reasons for writing this research. In fact, the purpose of the present research is to initially investigate the urban system of the southeastern parts of the country, and then, according to assessments of the current status of the urban hierarchy system, its impact on the future of regional development indicators. The results showed that urban hierarchy imbalance is one of the main characteristics of the urban system in the southeastern region, which has resulted in the lack of necessary small infrastructures and small towns. Also, the results of the futuristic model showed. Considering the importance of demographic indicators and their impact on the future of regional development indicators and the involvement of multiple elements, it is clear that the variables of urban management practices (36) and development status Human Indicators (35) have the highest calculated column value, respectively. In other words, the most important feature of these variables is low impact and high impact, and they are referred to as strategic factors, whose reinforcement boosts development in this region and has a positive impact on the economic, social and environmental dimensions.Extended Abstract:Introduction       In spite of the economic potential, security sensitivity, external access and international communications, geopolitical capacities, relatively multicultural geography and relatively decent biological foundations, the southeastern regions of Iran face significant challenges and challenges in land preparation. . One of the manifestations of poor land preparation in this area is the polarization of the population and its uneven distribution, which has also affected its urban network. In this regard, it is hypothesized that the urban network of the southeastern region of the country lacks proper spatial balance and lacks optimal performance and optimal hierarchy. According to this approach, the analysis of the urban system of the southeast of the country is essential in two aspects: first, because of the geopolitical and geoeconomics role of the region and the role that the southeast of the country can play in the economic development of the country; Past policies that have made each mother city of the district alone account for about half of the urban population of the Southeast, have exacerbated regional imbalances and concentrated population in limited areas. Paying attention to the abilities and problems of other areas and secondary social challenges such as marginalization, poverty, unemployment, goats Business and organized crime have been followed. This study seeks to study the urban system of the region and answer the general question of how the spatial pattern of urban system is in line with regional development and how does this situation affect the future of regional development indicators? Of course, the course of time and its course must also be examined. Therefore, in the present study, identifying and investigating the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population of the region is a necessity of planning to modify the urban system and the comprehensive development and development at the regional level, which will then be attempted to interpret future urban system developments.Methodology:      The purpose of this study is developmental and descriptiveanalytical and library method has been used for data collection. The required information of existing documents, especially the statistics of Iran Statistical Center has been extracted. In this study, considering demographic data based on 19951955 censuses, it has been attempted to study the developments in the urban hierarchy of the Southeast with a quantitative approach and by applying different models. What is certain is that the issue of optimal size and optimal size of the city is more important and rational than any other in the issue of the distribution of the urban population of the southeast in a hierarchical system. With regard to this issue, the subject of this study is the urban hierarchy in the southeastern region of the country, comprising cities of over ten thousand inhabitants in three provinces of Hormozgan, Kerman and Sistan & Baluchestan in four statistical periods of 2006, 2011 & 2016 The main data used are the number of cities and their populations to examine the first urban phenomenon in the above periods. In this regard, it seems that the urban network of the southeast of the country lacks proper spatial equilibrium and lacks optimal performance and hierarchy. For this purpose, it has been attempted to use the MICMAC software to determine the degree of influence or influence of identified factors on the hierarchical status of cities.Results and discussion:       Examination of the first urban pattern in the urban system of the mentioned region during 19762016 shows that the city’s first index, which measures the ratio between the first cities to the total urban population of the region, increased from 1996 to 2006 this year and again in the 20112016 period. The trend is decreasing. The sizeuptodate model shows that all cities under 50,000 have a population deficit. Studies at the regional level show that although the number of urban populations has declined, it is noteworthy that the highest population growth rates are in the three cities of Kerman, Zahedan and Bandar Abbas and the rest of the cities have grown less than the other three cities. The city in each of the four periods surveyed was strongly distant from other cities with strong polarization. Evaluation of analytical results of tensile coefficient in cities of southeast of Iran shows that this index during the period 19962006 in the population classes 2550 thousand had the highest population tensile and cities under 25 thousand had negative tensile coefficient. We have seen a sharp decline in the elasticity of 2550,000 cities in the 1990s. Populations of 10 to 25 thousand have the highest tensile coefficient at 3.155, indicating an upward growth of this population. In the 20112016s, cities with a population of 1025 thousand have the highest tensile coefficient of the past 5050 thousand cities with the lowest population elasticity, and cities with a population of over 100,000 still have a relative balance of population. The results of the future research model showed that, given the importance of demographic indicators and their impact on the future of regional development indicators and the involvement of multiple elements, it can be clearly identified from such technological links as human development indicators. Cited regional, national, ethnic, and economic activity linkages with regard to the location of cities in the South East as strategic factors that reinforce these aspects that contribute to the development boom in the region and its positive impact on the economic, social and economic aspects. To be seen in the environment.Conclusion:         What the results of this study show is that small towns have a good potential to attract populations and become service centers in their area, but what diminishes the functionality of these towns is the concentration of facilities and industries in several district cities that cause disruption. And the spatial imbalance in the region, thus confirming the hypothesis of this study.