a dynamic analysis of the environmental impacts and energy consumption in the industrial sector on iran’s economic growth

The industrial sector is the largest consumer of fossil energy and a fundamental pillar of economic development. due to the critical role of energy usage and co₂ emissions in shaping both economic outcomes and environmental quality, this study investigates their connection with economic growth in iran’s industrial sector. first, key trends and components of the industrial sector are analyzed. then, using data from the central bank of iran and the national energy balance sheet, the study applies an autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model to estimate the variables influencing economic growth. in the second phase, a dynamic modeling framework is utilized to project system behavior from 1996 to 2051. the innovation of this study lies in its dynamic modeling approach, which enables the simulation of future trends and the examination of variable interactions under different policy scenarios and potential economic shocks. the findings indicate a statistically significant negative effect of industrial co₂ emissions on economic growth (-0.025852) and a positive impact of industrial energy consumption (0.209015). based on these results, carbon taxation policies and subsidies for renewable energy in industrial processes are recommended to support economic growth while promoting sustainable development.