Economic and Environmental Effects of Energy Transition in Iran by 2050: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model

Iran relies on fossil fuels for its energy supply, which has led to economic and environmental challenges. in recent years, imbalances in energy production and supply have caused significant damage to various economic sectors. therefore, paying attention to the composition of the portfolio of energy and the impact of the energy transformation process in this country is very important. accordingly, this research aims to examine the economic and environmental effects of energy transition in iran with its energy trading partners. to this end, three scenarios for changing the composition of energy portfolios in iran's energy transition process were analyzed using a computable multi-regional general equilibrium model. the results of this study indicate that increasing the share of electricity generated from renewable energy sources while keeping non- renewable electricity production constant has positive economic effects and reduces carbon emissions. also, applying the scenario of increasing renewable energy while reducing energy produced from fossil fuels showed that welfare and gdp decreased by 3.17 and 2.37 percent, respectively, and also that carbon emissions decreased by 10.89 percent in this scenario, which was a greater decrease than in previous scenarios. therefore, the reduction in fossil fuel energy production should occur at a gentler rate compared to the increase in renewable energy production.