Uncertainty of Oil Prices and Industrial Production in Oil Exporting Countries in Selected Countries of the Middle East and OECD

Oil constitutes a significant share of the world's total energy consumption. for this reason, any fluctuations in demand, supply, price, or other variables affecting this sector inevitably impact the economies of both oil-producing and oil-consuming countries. any factor that disrupts the supply or demand for oil and the subsequent market dynamics will, in most cases, lead to a change (increase or decrease) in oil prices. these price changes influence the behavior of energy producers and consumers, as price acts as a key determinant on both the supply and demand sides of the energy market. this study examines the inter-variable, time-varying conditional correlation between global oil prices and the returns of the industrial production index (real gdp) in oil-exporting countries (iran, saudi arabia, and the uae) and oecd countries. using monthly data on global oil prices, the performance of the industrial production index in the middle east and oecd countries from 2000 to 2021, and oxmetrics software, the time-varying conditional correlation between global oil prices and industrial production efficiency in selected countries was analyzed using the cdcc-garch method. the results indicate that the time-varying conditional correlation between global oil prices and real gdp is significant, and changes in final oil prices have caused notable shifts in the dynamic correlation between these variables, manifesting as uncertainty.