Agent-Based Simulation of Participatory Management of Groundwater Resources: A Case Study of Villagers in Isfahan Province, Iran

Groundwater scarcity in arid regions has become a critical issue, particularly in areas like isfahan province, iran, where over-extraction by farmers has led to a classic case of the tragedy of the commons. this problem is compounded by erratic rainfall and the drying of key water sources like the zayandehroud river. in response, participatory conservation projects have been proposed, recommending the adoption of large-scale irrigation systems (lis) to manage water resources more sustainably. however, implementing these lis projects is complex, requiring significant financial investments and cooperation between the government and farmers, which is often difficult to secure. to explore these dynamics, this study employs an agent-based model (abm) to simulate farmer behavior and the adoption of lis under different policy scenarios. the model takes into account both the limited financial resources available to the government and the intricate social structures of the villages involved. results indicate that government financial support is crucial for fostering farmer participation, with simulations showing that when the government covers 85% of the costs, participation rates can exceed two-thirds of the community. additionally, the study highlights an inverse relationship between village size and participation rates, suggesting that smaller villages are more likely to adopt lis. as a result, this study recommends that financial assistance be strategically targeted, starting with smaller villages, particularly those close to water resources, while leveraging scale-free social networks to maximize adoption rates.