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ارزیابی قابلیت اطمینان سیستم‌های چندوضعیتی تعمیرپذیر با در نظر گرفتن خرابی‌های وابسته به وسیله‌ی درخت خرابی پویا و شبکه‌های بیزی پویا
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نویسنده
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مرتضوی محمد ,کرباسیان مهدی
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منبع
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مهندسي صنايع و مديريت شريف - 1398 - دوره : 35-1 - شماره : 1/1 - صفحه:91 -104
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چکیده
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در مبحث قابلیت اطمینان انواع خرابی‌های وابسته وجود دارند که ازمهم‌ترین آنها می‌توان به علت مشترک خرابی و خرابی آبشاری اشاره کرد. در مطالعات متعددی علت مشترک خرابی بررسی شده است؛ در حالی که خرابی آبشاری نیز شدیداً قابلیت اطمینان سیستم را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد. به طوری که در برخی از سیستم‌ها کارکرد معیوب یک جزء باعث گسترش خرابی در دیگر اجزا می‌شود و برعکس. در این مقاله یک روش جدید به وسیله‌ی شبکه‌های بیزی پویا برای در نظر گرفتن خرابی آبشاری در ارزیابی قابلیت اطمینان سیستم‌ها با اجزای چندوضعیتی تعمیرپذیر معرفی می‌شود. به این‌منظور با اضافه کردن یک عملگر جدید به درخت خرابی پویا )عملگر آبشاری( و تبدیل آن به شبکه‌ی بیزی پویا تاثیرخرابی آبشاری در سیستم‌های چند وضعیتی بررسی شده است. در پایان مطالعه‌ی موردی درباره‌ی سیستم پمپاژ آب فشار قوی ارائه می‌شود.
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کلیدواژه
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علت مشترک خرابی، خرابی آبشاری، چند وضعیتی، درخت خرابی پویا، شبکه‌ی بیزی پویا
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آدرس
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دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد نجف آباد, گروه مهندسی صنایع, ایران, دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر, دانشکده مهندسی صنایع, ایران
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پست الکترونیکی
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mkarbasi@mut-es.ac.ir
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EVALUATION RELIABILITY OF MULTI STATE REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS BY CONSIDERING COMMON CAUSE FAILURE AND CASCADING FAILURE USING DYNAMIC FAULT TREE AND
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Authors
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Abstract
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Accurate evaluation of system reliability has always occupied the attention of system engineers and designers. In this connection, taking account of real system features in reliability evaluation models leads to an accurate estimation of reliability. These features include multi state components, repair, dependent failures, and time. The relationship among components in a system causes the failure of one component to affect others; therefore, components fail due not only to independent failure, but also to dependent failure. There are various dependent failures, the most important of which include common cause failure and cascading failure. Common cause failure has been investigated by a number of studies but a few attention has been paid to cascading failures. Cascading failure, severely influences system reliability, such that the defective functioning of one component in some systems is propagated to other components and vice versa. The present paper develops a new method using dynamic bayesian networks to take into consideration two types of dependent failures in the reliability evaluation of systems with repairable multistate components. In so doing, a dynamic fault tree is used and converted into a dynamic Bayesian network, in such a way that repair is incorporated into reliability evaluation by drawing the conditional probability table for a multistate component. Afterwards, by adding a new gate (cascading gate) to the dynamic fault tree and converting it to the dynamic Bayesian network, the impact of cascading failure on multistate systems is examined. Finally, using the common cause failure gate as well as cascading gate, the procedure of evaluation of reliability of a system with two types of dependent failures as well as repairable multistate components is investigated. Else, use of dynamic fault tree and its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network minimizes the explosion state in the Bayesian network. The sensitivity of the proposed method is analyzed by evaluating the reliability of the high pressure water pumping system. This pumping system uses two water pumps in parallel, which are subject to common cause failure as well as independent failure. The defective functioning of water pumps in turn impinges upon electrical panel (cascading failure), thus creating two types of dependent failures in the system. Using the proposed method, the reliability of such systems is evaluated.
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Keywords
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