اثر اعتبارات بر قیمت مسکن در ایران

Significance of housing finance system is to the extent that one of economists evaluates its importance in the present century as that of steam machine in the industrial development. however, the relationship between house prices and mortgage credit is one of the most important questions for which policy makers are concerned. and, implementation of policies without paying attention to theoretical and empirical foundations of that relationship may have detrimental effects on the housing sector and eventually whole economy. the relationship between house prices and mortgage credit does not mean that facilities should be restricted to control house prices, but the point is that the mortgage credit system should perform such a way that it can help the long-term growth and development of housing and its destructive economic and social effects is avoided. the chosen model of this paper about the effects of bank credits on house prices is adopted from hass and greef (2000). the aim of this study is to examine the effect of bank credits granted on house prices with special focus on the last shock occurred in 2006-2007. equations are estimated using a vector autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model and employing quarterly data from 1991 to 2007. we find a significant positive relationship between bank facilities granted to housing sector and house prices in the short and long-run as well as a one-way causal relationship from facilities to house prices. the estimated elasticity’s suggest that variables affect differently during boom and recession. increased demand by population growth, however, will have more intensive effect on house prices. to overcome housing sector recession, developed mortgage credit (bank facilities) is the most effective policy.