عوامل موثر بر تقاضای انرژی فسیلی در بخش صنعت ایران

انرژی فسیلی از نهاده های مهم در فرآیند تولید بنگاه های صنعتی می باشند . بنگاه های صنعتی از ترکیب انرژی با سایر نهاده های تولید، محصولات خود را ساخته و به بازار عرضه می کنند . ازاین‌رو، شناخت تقاضای انرژی فسیلی و عوامل موثر بر آن در کنار دیگر سیاست های حاکم بر تقاضای انرژی می تواند نقش موثری در فرایند تصمیم گیری های اقتصادی داشته باشد . هدف از این مطالعه ، بررسی عوامل موثر بر تقاضای انرژی های فسیلی در بخش صنعت در ایران طی سال‌های 94-1361 با بهره گیری از روشardl  است . نتایج تحقیق بیانگر آن است که کشش قیمتی تقاضای انرژی فسیلی در بلند مدت و کوتاه مدت با کشش هستند؛ بنابراین می توان نتیجه گرفت که انرژی های فسیلی در بخش صنعت باکشش هستند و سیاست قیمتی در بهینه کردن تقاضای بنگاه های صنعتی موثر است و می تواند در مدیریت مصرف و ایجاد انگیزه لازم برای مصرف بهینه تاثیر بگذارد.کشش متقاطع تقاضا در بلند مدت و کوتاه مدت رابطه جانشینی بین حامل های انرژی فسیلی و انرژی الکتریکی از خود نشان می دهد . کشش درآمدی تقاضا نیز در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت دارای اثر مستقیم بر مصرف بهینه انرژی فسیلی در بخش صنعت است، بطوری که با افزایش تولیدات صنعتی، ارزش‌افزوده بنگاه های صنعتی افزایش یافته و تقاضا برای انرژی فسیلی بیشتر می شود.

Determinants of Fossil Energy Demand in Iran’s Manufacturing Sector

Fossil energy is one of the most important inputs in the production process of manufacturing enterprises. Industrial enterprises manufacture their products with the mixture of energy and the other inputs and sell them in markets. Hence, understanding the fossil energy demand and its determinants along with the other policies on energy demand can play an effective role in economic decision process. The industrial , agricultural and transportation sectors are the major energy consumers in Iran. Energy can be divided by fossil energy (such as kerosene, gasoline, natural gas and the other petroleum products) and nonfossil energy (such as electricity, sun and wind energy).Nowadays, most of industrial firms use fossil energy as well as electricity for light and production process. The policy of each firm is also to use optimal energy in its production process. The main purpose of this research is the study of kinds of fossil energy on demand of manufacturing sector of Iran over the period 19822015.  The most important variables which affect the demand for fossil energy in the industrial enterprises are fossil prices, electricity price, the value added of production and the physical capital. In Iran, the manufacturing sector is the third sector of housemade, commercial and transportation, sectors, and the natural gas consumption is increasing instead of oil products and electricity. The estimation technique of this paper is AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Thus, the impacts of capital stock, the real price of electricity, and the real prices of various fossil energy in industrial sector in shortrun and long –run. The result of this research show that fossil energy price elasticity in the long and short run is elastic in the manufacturing sector of Iran. Thus, the price policies are effective in industrial enterprises demand and they can lead the consumers to use the optimal energy in the production process. The cross elasticity of demand is negative and it is a good substitution for fossil energy. The long and short run income elasticity of demand has a direct effect on the optimal consumption of fossil energy, so that when the industrial products grow, their value added increases and the demand for fossil energy increases too. Finally, the elasticity of physical capital is not significant in short run , but it has a negative effect on demand for fossil energy in longrun. Thus, using modern machinery can decrease the demand for fossil energy. Nowadays, in Iran the price of various kinds of energy is relative cheap. So, the energy consumption is very large and extreme. Since the fossil energies are endless, the economizing of them is very necessary. The government can perform the following policies to prevent the extreme energy consumption in industries. Installing Multitariff meters, for pricing energy, determining the real price of different kinds of energy , and eliminating the energy subsidies are some government policies for controlling the energy in manufacturing sector.