تاثیر نااطمینانی سیاست مخارج دولت بر بخش حقیقی اقتصاد در رژیم‏های رکود و رونق

ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ و ﻧﺎاﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎﻧﯽ در ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎی ﮐﻼن اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ازﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ و ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ ﻧﺎﻣﺘﻮازن و ﮐﻨﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎی درﺣﺎل ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻫﻢ ﭼﻮن اﯾﺮان اﺳﺖ. رﺷﺪ، ﺗﻮرم، ﻧﻔﺖ، ﻧﻘﺪﯾﻨﮕﯽ، ﻧﺮخ ارز و ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی ﮐﻼن اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎی ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ درﺣﺎل ﻧﻮﺳﺎن ﺑﻮده و آﺛﺎر اﯾﻦ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت و ﺗﺪاوم آن ﻫﺎ در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﺎی ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺑﺮوز ﺑﺤﺮان ﻫﺎ و ﻣﺸﮑﻼت ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮی در اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫ ﺎ ﺷﻮد. در ﻫﻤﯿﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ، در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ اﺛﺮات ﻧﺎاﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺨﺎرج دوﻟﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد )ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل( در رژﯾﻢ ﻫﺎی رﮐﻮد و روﻧﻖ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮای اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﭼﺮﺧﺸﯽ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ رژﯾﻢ ﻣﺎرﮐﻮف ﺳﻮﺋﯿﭽﯿﻨﮓ اﺛﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1365 ﺗﺎ1399 ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﺑﺮآورد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎی اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻧﺎاﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﺨﺎرج ﺟﺎری و ﻋﻤﺮاﻧﯽ، ﺗﮑﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﻔﺘﯽ، ﭘﻮﻟﯽ و ارزی، ﺑﺤﺮان ﻣﺎﻟﯽ و ﺗﺤﺮﯾﻢ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ رﮐﻮد ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. اﻓﺰون ﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، ﻃﻮل دوره رﮐﻮد و روﻧﻖ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 20 و 15 ﺳﺎل ﺑﻮده و اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺑﺮای اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ21 و 14 ﺳﺎل اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان اﻧﺘﻘﺎل در دوران رﮐﻮد ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 61 درﺻﺪ در ﻣﺪل ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و 50 درﺻﺪ در ﻣﺪل اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﺎﻧﺪﮔﺎری در دوران رﮐﻮد اﯾﺮان از اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺑﺎﻻﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ، رﯾﺴﮏ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاری در اﯾﺮان را اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ داده و ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد

the impact of government spending policy uncertainty on the real sector of the economy in recession and boom regimes

uncertainty in macroeconomic policies is among the important and influential factors in the unbalanced and slow economic growth of developing countries such as iran. growth, inflation, oil, liquidity, exchange rate, and other macroeconomic variables of developing countries are fluctuating more than in industrialized countries and the effects of these fluctuations and their continuation in different areas of the economy can cause crises and systemic problems in these countries. in this regard, the current research aims to investigate the uncertain effects of the government spending policy on the real sector of the economy (production and employment) in recession and boom regimes. for this purpose, the effect of the studied variables on production and employment has been estimated in the period from 1365 to 1399 with the help of the rotation model and markov switching regime change. the findings of this research show that the uncertainty of current and construction expenditures, oil and monetary shocks, currency fluctuations, financial crisis, and sanctions in recession conditions cause a decrease in gdp and employment. moreover, findings reveal that the recession and boom periods in production are 20 and 15 years, while these values in employment are 21 and 14 years, respectively. additionally, the amount of transfer during the recession is equal to 61% in the production model and 50% in the employment model. therefore, the rate of permanence during iran's recession has a high probability. these factors increase the risk of investing in iran and lead to a decrease in production and employment