تبیین رقابت‌پذیری مناطق مرزی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری (مطالعۀ موردی: استان کردستان)

با ورود به عصر جهانی‌شدن لزوم توجه به مناطق مرزی و رقابت‌پذیری این مناطق با مناطق مرکزی بیش از پیش در هر کشوری مطرح شده است. رقابت‌پذیری مناطق مرزی تلاش برای از ‌بین‌ بردن وضع نامساعد اجتماعی، اقتصادی، محافظت، توجه به توانمندی‌ها و قابلیت‌های این مناطق و نیز ارتقای سرمایه‌های فیزیکی، طبیعی و مصنوعی است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر تبیین رقابت‌پذیری استان کردستان است؛ بنابراین محققان سعی کرده‌اند تا وضعیت‌های محتمل رقابت‌پذیری آیندۀ استان را تحلیل کنند. پژوهش حاضر ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و از‌نظر ماهیت، براساس روش علم آینده‌‌پژوهی، اکتشافی است. همچنین، جمع‌آوری اطلاعات به دو صورت کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی صورت گرفته است. در این پژوهش برای تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل داده‌ها، بیان وضعیت شاخص‌ها و استخراج عوامل کلیدی و سناریوها از نرم‌افزارهای آینده‌نگاری میک‌مک و سناریو ویزارد و نیز برای شناسایی استراتژی رقابت‌پذیری از نرم‌افزار متاسوات استفاده شده است. در پژوهش حاضر داده‌های کیفی و کمّی به‌ترتیب با پرسشنامۀ باز و بررسی اسناد و به‌صورت عددی به دست آمد. بدین صورت که در وهلۀ نخست از پرسشنامۀ باز برای استخراج کلی عوامل موثر بر رقابت‌پذیری و در وهلۀ دوم نیز برای استخراج عوامل کلیدی از وزن‌دهی پرسشنامه‌های دلفی در نرم افزار میک‌مک استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش حاضر حاکی از ناپایدار و شکننده‌بودن الگوی رقابت‌پذیری استان کردستان است. همچنین، ضریب پژوهش بیانگر تحقق سناریوها با وضعیت‌های نامطلوب بوده است. بهترین راه حل برای برون‌رفت از سناریوهای نامطلوب به وضعیت مطلوب، تاکید بر شاخص‌هایی با بیشترین کامیابی، تقلید‌ناپذیری و تناسب با رقابت‌پذیری بوده است.

explaining the competitiveness of border regions with a foresight approach (case study: kurdistan province)

abstractproblem definition: the need for attention has been raised more than before to the border areas and the competitiveness of these areas by entering the age of globalization. the competitiveness of border regions is an effort to eliminate unfavorable social and economic situations and protection and pay attention to the capabilities of these areas as well as the improvement of physical, natural, and artificial capitals.purpose: the present research has been done with the aim of expressing competitiveness in kurdistan and analysis of possible situations from future competitiveness in the province.methodology: the type of the current research is applied in terms of purpose and it is exploratory in terms of nature based on the future research method. data collection has been done in both library and field methods. to express the status of indicators and extraction of key factors and scenarios from forecasting software, mic­mac, and scenario­wizard were used. meta swot software was used to identify the competitiveness strategy. qualitative data were gathered with an open questionnaire and document review and quantitative data were collected numerically which was used in the first stage from the open questionnaire for general extraction of effective factors on competitiveness. in the second stage, key factors were extracted from the weighting of delphi questionnaires in micmac software.results: the results indicated that the competitiveness model of kurdistan is unstable and fragile. in addition, the research coefficient has shown the realization of scenarios with unfavorable situations. the best solution for moving from unfavorable scenarios to favorable situations has been to emphasize indicators with the most success, inimitability, and compatibility with competitiveness.keywords: key factors, scenario, strategy, kurdistan province.introductionfrom the 1970s onwards, the border regions were placed in the economic core, and competitiveness is a central issue and a means to achieve the desired economic growth and sustainable development. in the global economy, it is a key criterion for evaluating the degree of success and the possibility of gaining a position. in this connection, serious attention is paid to the competitiveness of the regions in this direction and generally, there are significant differences between the regions of a country in terms of economic performance. on the other hand, many important levers of competitiveness can only be applied at regional levels. in this connection, while explaining the competitiveness situation of kurdistan province and extracting key factors, the study aims to identify the possible competitiveness situations of the province in the framework of the scenario. moreover, the competitiveness strategies of the region have been extracted. materials and methodsthe research type is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection. data collection has been done in two forms: library and field methods. in this research, 60 indicators have been evaluated in 4 dimensions using micmac and scenariowizard software to determine the key factors and competitiveness scenarios of the province. then, metaswat software was used to identify the best strategy. it should be noted that according to the method used to analyze and present strategies, the research sample was expert-oriented. for this purpose, a sample of experts has been selected using a targeted method. in this regard, the acceptance criteria in the sample were: having research activities in the field of regional competitiveness, implementation experience in the management and planning of the province, and being an expert in the fields of economics, geography, and management. in this regard, after conducting 20 interviews, the sample size reached saturation. in addition, to ensure the validity of the measurement, a questionnaire was sent to 5 professors and after receiving the experts’ corrective opinions, the questionnaire was compiled. in order to ensure the reliability of the research, 10 forms were completed by retesting, and these forms were presented to 10 experts after 10 days. finally, the evaluation results were checked in two forms. the coefficient is estimated to be 0.80. research findingsby examining the distribution of indicators in the diagram of the direct and indirect effects on the future trend of the competitiveness of the kurdistan region, it can be said that most of the variables are around the diagonal axis of the distribution plane. therefore, the system has an unstable state. for this purpose, 5 categories can be identified (controlling, bidirectional, regulatory, dependent, and output). in this regard, out of thirty possible and realizable scenarios, only two scenarios have been in a favorable situation. in the second rank, there are static factors, which have 9 scenarios. meanwhile, scenario 6 has the highest coefficient (80%). in the next order, scenarios with an unfavorable situation are placed. seventeen scenarios are assigned to this category. meanwhile, scenario 30 has the highest realization coefficient with a coefficient of 90%. discussion of results and conclusionconsidering the results of the study, investment security in the province has been at a low level and the government has not supported businesses in a favorable way. in addition, research and development units (r&d) in companies are not at the desired and appropriate level. therefore, the specialization of production units is not based on merit and it was at a medium and low level and could not compete with foreign samples. therefore, foreign investors are not willing to invest. in such a situation, marketing for the production of products has been very small. in this regard, in order to reduce the coefficient of realization of unfavorable scenarios, in contrast to the desire for favorable scenarios, according to the goals that can be drawn and the resources available in the province, the most successful and inimitable factor for metal and non-metal mines is being on the border, customs, and infrastructure facilities. in addition, the most compatible factor with the competitiveness of the existence of a common culture and language in the border areas of the two countries, customs, and border markets were production-transformation industries. macro policies, social security, sanctions, and relations between countries have been identified as the most important obstacles to the competitiveness of kurdistan province.