شناسایی عوامل موثر بر کیفیت محیط‌زیست در کشورهای خاورمیانه

شناخت عوامل موثر بر کیفیت محیط‌زیست که با استفاده از شاخص میزان انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن به‌عنوان یکی از اصلی ترین شاخص های نشان دهنده گرم شدن کره زمین قلمداد می شود، موضوع بررسی این تحقیق است. عواملی مانند مصرف انرژی، صادرات، تراکم جمعیت و تولید سرانه بیشترین سهم را در تولید و انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن دارند. مسئله این پژوهش به دست آوردن رابطه ای تجربه ای بین عوامل یادشده و انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن در کشورهای مورد مطالعه است. روش پاسخگویی به مسئله مزبور از طریق تحلیل اقتصادسنجی داده های پانلی برای کشورهای خاورمیانه در سال‌های 1990 تا 2015 است. داده ها نیز از سایت بانک جهانی دریافت شده است. لازم به ذکر است که داده های مورد نیاز پژوهش از پایگاه داده ای بانک جهانی استخراج شده است. درواقع با توجه به متغیرهای احتمالی موثر بر میزان انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن که در مبانی نظری بیان شده است، این تحقیق، تاثیر آن متغیرها را برای کشورهای خاورمیانه آزمون کرده و معنی‌داری و یا عدم معنی‌داری آن ها را برای کشورهای حوزه خاورمیانه نشان داده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که تاثیر عوامل تولید سرانه، تراکم جمعیت و میزان مصرف انرژی سرانه بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن سرانه معنی‌دار است، درحالی‌که تاثیر صادرات سرانه کشورها بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن سرانه معنی‌داری نیست، همچنین نتایج این مطالعه، فرضیه محیط‌زیستی کوزنتس مبنی بر وجود رابطه u شکل معکوس بین رشد اقتصادی و میزان انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن را برای کشورهای مورد نظر تایید می کند.

Identifying the Affecting Environmental Quality Factors in the Middle East

1 Introduction;Studies show that in recent years, climate change around the world has been increasing rapidly and has brought about irreparable economic, social and development consequences. Due to the prevailing conditions in different regions, the effects of climate change will vary, and due to the severity and weakness of these symptoms and their effects, significant damages will be caused annually by the increase in temperature. The earth will increase (Alishiri, Khanly. & Bagheri, 2015). Promoting sustainable patterns of energy production and consumption is therefore essential, and the international community is in dire need of a more sustainable lifestyle to reduce energy consumption. Based on predictions, CO2 emissions from energy consumption in developing countries will surpass developed countries in the coming years (Alishiri et al., 2015).;The purpose of this study is to identify factors affecting carbon dioxide emission, as one of the key environmental considerations, in the Middleeastern countries. In this study, first, the definition and concept of environmental quality, the study area and factors affecting environmental quality have been addressed. Then, the research and modeling method is explained and finally the results of modeling and policy suggestions that can lead to an increase in the quality of the environment are presented.;2 Materials and Methods;Due to the high share of carbon dioxide in contaminating countries and its distinct data, carbon dioxide emission have always been considered as indicators and environmental quality in research. The same criterion was used in this study.  The study area in this research is Middleeastern countries. The method used in this study is Panel data and the data is annual. The data ranges from 1990 to 2015. In order to overcome the sample size problem, panel data from the Middleeastern countries have been used to test the causal relationship between energy consumption growth, economic growth, export growth, population growth and carbon dioxide emission growth.;3 Results and Discussions;The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between carbon dioxide emission and variables such as GDP, GDP2, energy consumption, population density and exports for the Middle East countries during the years 1990 to 2015. In addition, the existence of a Kuznets curve (EKC) for these countries was studied. To analyze the relationships, the panel test data reliability tests, the determination of the panel model test, and finally, the significance analysis of the coefficients were used. The results showed that the relationship between energy consumption variables, GDP, GDP2 and population density with carbon dioxide emission is significant. Also, there is a Uinverse relationship between GDP2 and carbon dioxide emission, so the Kuznets hypothesis applies to these countries. In contrast, the relationship between exports and carbon dioxide emission in this study is not significant. This means that, at the outset, the growth of countries ' production is accompanied by the addition of carbon dioxide gas, but after the initial stages of development by a country production increases with the reduction of carbon dioxide gas. The relationship between exports and carbon dioxide emission in this study for the Middle East countries was not confirmed.;4 Conclusion;The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting environmental quality. According to the methodology, GDP2, GDP, energy consumption and population density are the main factors affecting CO2 emissions and environmental quality in Middle Eastern countries.;A number of policy implications can be made based on the findings of this study. 1) Population policy should move towards decentralization of cities, especially metropolises, in addition to population control. This has led to the spread of population throughout the country, which has reduced the use of contaminants that will reduce pollution. 2) Due to the significant relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions, policy should be taken to replace renewable energy with fossil fuels. Failure to reduce energy consumption in the Middle East countries should include funding for scientific and research institutions through projects to increase energy efficiency and reduce the use of fossil fuels. 3) Middle East countries should consider increasing GDP by enhancing the production of goods and services and increasing the productivity of production entities, as in the Kuznets hypothesis (EKC) there is a reverse Ushaped relationship between economic growth and pollution. Increased production and economic growth will reduce carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution. 4) Given that the relationship between export and CO2 emission for the Middle East countries is not statistically significant, production can be further increased by increasing exports, which can lead to economic growth. It is recommended that the Kuznets hypothesis reduce pollution. 5) Middle East countries should use environmentally friendly technologies in the production of goods and services to directly increase pollution production and reduce pollution according to the Kuznets hypothesis as well as directly prevent the spread of pollution. 6) Taxation should be on the agenda of governments to reduce carbon dioxide production technologies as well as domestic pollution generating plants to reduce CO2 emissions.;