نقش تنوع فعالیت های اقتصادی زراعی و غیرزراعی بر تاب آوری خانوارهای کشاورز روستایی در معرض خشکسالی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان چناران)

در ایران کشاورزی محور اساسی تامین معیشت به شمار آمده و در اغلب برنامه های توسعه نیز، مهم‌ ترین و تنها رکن اقتصادی روستا محسوب می شود. هرچند چنین ساختاری درگذشته با توجه به اقتصاد بسته روستا قابلیّت دوام داشت ولی با بروز ناپایداری در فضاهای روستایی مشکل بتواند آسیب پذیری خانوارهای کشاورز روستایی را در برابر تکانه های بیرونی ازجمله خشکسالی کاهش دهد. مطالعه حاضر به بررسی نقش تنوع فعالیت های اقتصادی در تاب آوری خانوارهای کشاورز روستایی شهرستان چناران می پردازد. روش تحقیق توصیفیتحلیلی است. متغیر مستقل «تنوع فعالیت های اقتصادی» و متغیر وابسته «تاب آوری» است. تنوع به تفکیک کشاورزی و غیر کشاورزی و تاب آوری به تفکیک پنج مولفه و 34 شاخص کمی گردید. جامعه آماری شامل 2902 خانوار کشاورز روستایی در 15 روستای در معرض خشکسالی شهرستان چناران بوده است که به کمک فرمول کوکران 271 خانوار به‌عنوان نمونه تعیین گردید. در انجام تحلیل ها از تحلیل واریانس یک ‌طرفه، تحلیل مسیر و تحلیل خوشه ‌ای استفاده شد. نتایج تحلیل واریانس نشان داد «تنوع فعالیت ‌های اقتصادی» موجب افزایش تاب ‌آوری خانوارهای کشاورز روستایی گردیده است. به‌طوری‌که میانگین تاب ‌آوری در خانوارهای دارای منابع درآمدی غیر متنوع 2.40، نیمه متنوع 2.48 و متنوع 2.83 است. بر اساس نتایج تحلیل مسیر «تنوع فعالیت های اقتصادی» به میزان 0.19 و «تنوع غیرزراعی» به میزان 0.12 طور مستقیم موجب افزایش تاب آوری خانوارهای کشاورز روستایی گردیده است. با توجه به یافته های تحقیق تنوع معیشت با تاکید بر بخش غیرزراعی، را می توان به‌عنوان استراتژی توسعه نواحی روستایی در معرض خشکسالی معرفی نمود.

The Role of Variety of Economic Agronomic and NonAgricultural Activities on the Resilience of Farmers’ Rural Households in the Areas Exposed to Drought (Case Study: Chenaran County)

Introduction;;Given to the geographical circumstances, Iran has been considered as one of the driest regions of the world and is always subject to severe droughts. Khorasan Razavi province, which is located in the northeastern part of the country is subject to the drought phenomenon due to the subtropical high pressure. Regarding the conditions of the province, the city of Chenaran also faces drought phenomenon, so that based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), during a sevenyear period, 68% of the area of Chenaran County had suffered from moderate drought and 32% from severe drought. On the other hand, 45/08% of rural workers are active in the agricultural sector. In recent years, droughts have led to excessive exploitation of underground aquifers, so that 77.8% of underground water has been evacuated by wells in the city. In spite of these restrictions, the city of Chenaran is known as the second largest producer of orchard crops and the fifth place in the province 's crops production. Findings showed that the city’s rural settlements have been facing various inconstancies in recent years, and abandoning the villages has been increasing. From 2006 to 2011, the number of vacant villages in Chenaran increased from 59 to 106 villages. Development theorists have proposed a “diversification approach” in the framework of a sustainable rural development model to enhance adaptation to external crises. As the diverse economic activities in the rural community create such a degree of security that the rural economy could withstand the main constraints of the environment (drought, frostbite, etc.) and socioeconomic instability especially the market volatility and the price of manufactured goods and ...), it seems that the variety of the means of livelihood can be an influencing factor in reducing the natural hazards, especially drought in rural areas.;;Materials and Methods;;The research methodology is descriptiveanalytical. The statistical population of the study consists of 133 villages over 20 households in Chenaran county. In this study, 15 villages with 271 households were selected as sample. “Resilience” and “variety of economic activities” in rural households have been considered as dependent and independent variables, respectively. Resilience was investigated by means of 34 indicators in 5 components in Likert scale, including economic capacity with 7 indicators, policies and government support with 6 indicators, knowledge capacity with 11 indicators, social capacity with 7 indicators, and finally, environmental capacities with 3 indicators. Variety of economic activities was investigated in two sections: a) crop and agricultural activities and b) noncrop and non agricultural activities. Cronbach 's alpha coefficient 0.77 represents an internal correlation between questions and the desired reliability of the research tool.;;Results and Discussion;;The results showed that most of rural households have a dysfunctional economy, so that only 2.95% of households have a variety of income sources in nonagricultural sectors, 22.41% in agricultural activities and 4.9% have diversified income sources (crop and noncrop). Based on the one way analysis of variance (Sig = 0/002), it was indicated that the diversity of economic activities has been effective on the resilience of rural households in the city of Chenaran. The average resiliency of droughtaffected households among households with nonproductive income sources, semi diverse, and various sources of income has been estimated 2.40, 2.48 and 2.48, respectively. According to the obtained findings, the diversity of income sources has led to the increased resilience among the surveyed households. In addition, the noncrop economic activities have been effective on the resilience of rural households in the city of Chenaran. Among those households without noncrop various income sources, noncrop semi diverse income sources and noncrop various income sources have been reported 2.43, 2.42 and 2.80 respectively. In fact, the diversity of nonagricultural income sources has increased the resilience of the surveyed households. But the diversity of economic–agronomic activities did not have a significant effect on the resilience of rural households in Chenaran. It has been concluded that the variables of income diversification, diversity of crop income resources and noncrop income resources directly influence the resilient structure (Sig. ≤0 / 05). The variable of the diversity of income sources with beta of 0.19 had the greatest impact on the resilience of rural households. It is worth mentioning that the variability of noncrop income sources has a direct effect on increasing the resilience of rural households.;;Conclusion;;This study showed that the economic dependence of rural areas of the country on the agricultural sector and its lack of dynamism and diversity have led to an increase in vulnerability to external shocks (drought, frostbite, global price fluctuations of agricultural products, etc.). In this regard, by creating job opportunities in nonagricultural sectors, we can make a new source of income for the villagers and reduce the vulnerability of rural households to drought.