برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی توسعه گردشگری در بافت‌های تاریخی (مطالعه موردی: بخش مرکزی شهر ارومیه)

ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ﺷﻬﺮی در ﺟﻮار رﺷﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺷﻬﺮی آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎن ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺘﯽ ﻋﻈﯿﻢ ﺟﻬﺖ ارﺗﻘﺎء ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ زﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺷﻬﺮوﻧﺪان و ﭼﺎﻟﺸﯽ ﺟﺪی ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪاﺗﯽ ﻧﻈﯿﺮ ﺑﻼﯾﺎی ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ اﺳﺖ. در دﻫﻪ ﻫﺎی اﺧﯿﺮ، روﯾﮑﺮدﻫﺎی ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻼﯾﺎی ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ارﺗﻘﺎی ﺗﻮان ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ، ﻣﻔﻬﻮم ﺟﺪﯾﺪی را ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺗﺎب آوری ﺷﻬﺮی ﺑﺮای آﻣﺎدﮔﯽ ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻄﺮح ﮐﺮده اﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ در ﻧﻈﺮ دارد ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺎب آوری ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﺮﮐﺰی ﺷﻬﺮ اروﻣﯿﻪ در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ، ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﺳﺘﻨﺎدی ﺑﺮای ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و اﻧﺪازه ﮔﯿﺮی ﺗﺎبآوری در اﺑﻌﺎد ﭼﻬﺎرﮔﺎﻧﻪ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی، ﻧﻬﺎدی و ﮐﺎﻟﺒﺪی اراﺋﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. روش ﮔﺮدآوری اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪ ای، ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﺑﺰار ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ، ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ و ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. روش ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﮐﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰارﻫﺎی arcgis،spss، ﻣﺪل vikor و ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮی از آﻣﺎرﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ و اﺳﺘﻨﺒﺎﻃﯽ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎری ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺷﻬﺮوﻧﺪان ﻣﺤﺪوده ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﺮﮐﺰی اروﻣﯿﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﻣﻮل ﮐﻮﮐﺮان 380 ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ و ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﺎﺗﯿﮏ ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ، 3/3 ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و ﮐﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ، 2/64 ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﻬﺎدی اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻫﺮﮐﺪام از اﺑﻌﺎد ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻋﺪدی زﯾﺮ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻧﻈﺮی (4) اﺳﺖ، ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎی ﺗﺎب آوری در وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﻗﺮار ﻧﺪارد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻣﺪل وﯾﮑﻮر ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺤﻠﻪ 7 ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺤﻠﻪﻫﺎ در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺗﺎبآورﺗﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺗﺎب آوری ﮐﺎﻟﺒﺪی (ahp) ﺑﯿﺶ از 80 درﺻﺪ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ ﺑﺎﻓﺖ ﻣﺮﮐﺰی در ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻨﯽ از ﺗﺎب آوری ﻗﺮار داﺷﺘﻪ و در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ آﺳﯿﺐ ﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ.

Strategic plannnig of tourism development in historical contexts(Case study: central fabrics of Urmia city)

Urban tourism, accompanied by the future urban population growth, is a huge capacity to improve quality of life and simultaneously a serious challenge with regard to threats such as natural disasters. In recent decades, approaches to dealing with natural disasters to enhance the capacity of society have given rise to a new concept called urban resilience for better preparedness. To assess the resilience of Urmia’s central fabrics against natural hazards, this study sought to provide a reliable conceptual framework for analyzing and assessing it in four social, economic, institutional and physical dimensions. The required data were collected using the fieldwork, deskbased research method and questionnaire, interview and observation tools. The collected data were analyzed quantitatively using SPSS, ARCGIS, VIKOR model, and descriptive and inferential statistics. The statistical community of research consisted of the citizens of the central part of Urmia. The sample size was determined 380 using the Cochran formula and was systematically distributed. Findings showed that the highest and lowest averages were relating to the economic) 3.3(and institutional (2.64) dimensions. As the average value of all dimensions was below the theoretical average (4), we can say that the historical fabrics of Urmia is not in a good status in terms of resilience indicators. The results of the VIKOR model revealed that neighborhood 7 was the most resilient to natural hazards. Moreover, in terms of physical resilience (AHP), more than 80% of the central texture’s area had a low level of resilience and was vulnerable to probable natural hazards.