شناسایی و تحلیل مکانی کانون‌های جرم‌خیز در کلان‌شهرها مطالعه موردی: منطقه 12 کلان‌شهر تهران

این پژوهش، با هدف شناسایی و تحلیل مراکز جرم‌خیز کیف‌قاپی و جیب‌بری در منطقه 12 کلان‌شهر تهران، با استفاده از مدل‌های آماری و سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی انجام شده است. روش پژوهش، توصیفی‌تحلیلی و از نوع کاربردی است و برای شناسایی الگوهای فضایی توزیع جرایم مورد نظر، از آزمون‌های آماری تحلیل فضا شامل شاخص خودهمبستگی فضایی و شاخص موران، و برای تشخیص مراکز جرم‌خیز شهری از روش تخمین تراکم کرنل استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش، جرایم کیف‌قاپی و جیب‌بری است که در سال 1387 در محدوده منطقه 12شهر تهران انجام شده و برای مثال، 372 فقره از جرایم کیف‌قاپی و جیب‌بری منطقه 12 شهرداری تهران بررسی شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد الگوی فضای جرایم، از الگوی خوشه‌ای و متمرکز پیروی می‌کند و تحلیل زمانی روزهای هفته و ساعات شبانه‌روز این جرایم، نشان می‌دهد زمان اوج وقوع جرم کیف‌قاپی افراد موتورسوار، روزهای پنجشنبه و در ساعت 11 با فراوانی 10 تا 15 جرم، کیف‌قاپی افراد پیاده، روزهای دوشنبه ساعت 30:10 تا 30:12 و سه‌شنبه ساعت 14 تا 30:14 با فراوانی 5/1 تا 2 جرم و جیب‌بری و کیف‌زنی در روزهای پنجشنبه ساعت 30:17 تا 30:18 با فراوانی 3 تا 4 جرم در این ساعت است. همچنین، بررسی پراکندگی وقوع جرایم در محدوده مورد نظر، نشان می‌دهد که توزیع این جرایم در سطح منطقه پراکنده است؛ به‌طوری‌که چندین مرکز جرم‌خیز در کل منطقه تشکیل شده است. از طرف‌دیگر، محل وقوع این‌گونه جرایم، معمولاً مکان‌های شلوغ و پرازدحام مانند جلوی بانک‌ها، مراکز تجاری و میدان‌ها است.

Identification and Spatial Analysis of Hotspot in Metropolitan Areas Case Study: Area 12 of Tehran Metropolitan

Introduction The advent of different kinds of social abnormalities in the exhausted textures of Tehran Metropolis have become a very important concern for urban, judicial, and security managers. Nowadays, it is utterly identified that there is an established relationship between committing crimes and the place of their commitment. In fact, considering the place, as the immediate cause of social pathologies compared with the individual or structural factors, it seems more feasible to provide practical solutions from prevention of social pathologies. One of the most important and complex issues of Tehran metropolitan city at the present time is the high frequency of crimes and social disorders in the con  text of the city's old areas. In addition to creating a sense of insecurity and pessimism, this has caused heavy mental and physical injuries on the shoulders of citizens despite great efforts and budget expenditures. According to the official statistics, the number of crimes of the 12th District of Tehran that is known as the NaseryeraTehran, is much higher than other areas of Tehran. Thus, increase in social pathologies with physical injuries has made this area a dangerous place and hard to live. The first step should be to provide a timespace analysis of various social pathologies of the area, so that strategies to confront these disorders will be decided soon. Material & Methods This study is a practical study with comparative and analytical approach. To identify and understand the spatial pattern of crime in the city, it has used statistical models and graphics based on the geographical information system (GIS). The most important statistical tests used are Spatial autocorrelation and Moran's Index. In this study, in addition to statistical tests, graphics methods such as kernel density estimation method has been also used. The data related to crimes of the 12th District have been considered as point events. Discussion of Results & Conclusions According to the research results, the degree of committed crimes in Area 12, also known as Tehran of Nasseri Age, is much more than other areas in Tehran. Therefore, the increase in social abnormalities along with physical anomalies are among current issues and problems of this area and have faced this area with serious problems in terms of social abnormalities and made the access to strategies for controlling and coping with these anomalies necessary. Accordingly, the present study is aimed at identifying and analyzing spatially crimeprone canons of pickpocketing in Area 12 of Tehran Metropolis using statistical models and GIS. According to the research findings, the value of Moran's I for the total of social anomalies of pickpocketing in the area is 0.37 and zscore is 17.76. Regarding the positive value of Moran's I and the high absolute Zscore, the dispersion pattern of social disorder of pickpocketing can be calculated using the clustering method. In other words, with a confidence level as 99%, it can be claimed that social anomalies and disorder of pickpocketing in Area 12 are distributed in the space in a clustered form. Therefore, the investigated spatial pattern of crimes follows clustering and centralized patterns. Temporal analysis of committing the crime of pickpocketing using motorcycles in Area 12 indicates the general tendency of this crime in Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays and from 10.30 AM to 18.30 PM. Temporal analysis of committing pickpocketing by pedestrian criminals indicates the general tendency of committing this crime in middle days of a week from 8 AM to 14 PM. Among investigated crimes, pickpocketing in Thursdays and from 17.30 to 18.30 PM is the peak of committing it with 3 to 4 cases of committing it in this time and day. It seems that the reason of high rate of this crime in this time and day is more presence of people for purchases in days of weekend days and in afternoons in shopping malls of Area 12. These issues provide appropriate opportunities for criminals to select their victims and commit their crimes in this time and among crowded population.