بررسی عوامل موثر بر خشونت سیاسی با تاکید بر شکاف قومی (مطالعۀ موردی: استان آذربایجان غربی)

هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی عوامل موثر بر خشونت سیاسی با تاکید بر شکاف قومی در استان آذربایجان غربی است. خشونت سیاسی، بیشتر به معنای اِعمال زور در روابط جمعی بین قومی است که با حوزۀ سیاست ارتباط دارد. خشونت، نوعی از قدرت است که هدف خاصی را تعقیب می‌کند و آن، مشخص‌کردن مرزها و جلوگیری از اِعمال یک قدرت دیگر است. در پژوهش حاضر، به‌طور عمده از نظریه‌های آکلائف، بارت و گالتونگ استفاده شده است. پژوهش حاضر، توصیفی از نوع پیمایشی است که به روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای و با پرسش‌نامۀ محقق‌ساخته روی 384 نفر از شهروندان ترک و کردزبان استان آذربایجان غربی در سال 1398 انجام شد. برای آزمون فرضیه‌های پژوهش از ضریب همبستگی پیرسون، تحلیل واریانس و رگرسیون چندگانه هم‌زمان از نرم‌افزار spss24 استفاده شد. پایایی پرسش‌نامه براساس آلفای کرونباخ (خشونت سیاسی 0.82، شکاف قومی 0.81، ضعف رعایت حقوق شهروندی 0.85، تبعیض 0.89، الگوی رای‌دهی قومی 0.80، ضعف مدارای هویتی 0.71) سنجیده شد و برای روایی، روایی سازه و تکنیک تحلیل عاملی به کار رفت. تحلیل داده‌های این پیمایش نشان داد بین شکاف قومی و ابعاد آن (انکار هویت قومی، فاصلۀ قومی، مرزبندی قومیتی)، ضعف رعایت حقوق شهروندی، تبعیض، الگوی رای‌دهی قومی و ضعف مدارای هویتی با خشونت سیاسی، رابطۀ مستقیم و معنادار وجود دارد. نتایج حاصل از رگرسیون هم‌زمان و تحلیل مسیر نشان داد متغیرهای شکاف قومی، الگوی رای‌دهی قومی، ضعف رعایت حقوق شهروندی، تبعیض و درنهایت، ضعف مدارای هویتی بر خشونت سیاسی تاثیر دارد و به‌صورت واقعی و تعدیل‌یافته، 28.3 درصد از واریانس خشونت سیاسی با متغیرهای مستقل تبیین و پیش‌بینی می‌شود.

Investigating the Factors Affecting Political Violence with Emphasis on Ethnic Cleavage in West Azerbaijan Province

Introduction:The purpose of the present study is to investigate the factors affecting political violence with emphasis on ethnic cleavage in West Azerbaijan province. Ethnic group relations are often associated with strife and tension in most societies. As long as group relations are normal in a society, there would be no problem for the social system. But when social groups, such as political groups and ethnic cultural interests, are attacked in terms of socioeconomic interests, the social system becomes tense and social challenges, such as violence, arise in the society. Political violence means the use of force. It is a kind of interethnic collective relation related to the realm of politics. Violence is a type of power that pursues a specific goal, and that is to define boundaries and prevent the exercise of another power. Aklaef (as cited in Salehi Amiri, 2009) believes that most of the violent ethnic conflicts are of a political nature and result from ethnic disputes over the position of groups in the political structure of such countries, as well as intergroup conflicts over the redistribution of power and the attainment of power. Frederick Barth believes that ethnic distinctions are the product of drawing and protecting borders, not the product of cultural differences that are obvious to the outside observer. Boundaries are always drawn in front of other people and are the basis for separating one group from another. Social boundaries are the opposite of objectified forms of social differences that are manifested in unequal access to resources (material and immaterial) and unequal distribution of social opportunities. Ethnic cleavages are social divisions and conflicts that go back to some manifestations of differences and structural incompatibility in a multiethnic society. This cleavage is widened by ethnic groups whose interests are in fundamental conflict with each other. This process leads to the acquisition of selfawareness and special values ​​for individuals belonging to each of these branched ethnic groups. These values ​systematically shape the collective identity of these conflicting groups and produce a blueprint for social behaviors and actions for members of these groups, thus creating a framework for violence and social conflict.  Materials and Methods:This research is a quantitative survey study. The main tool used in the data collection stage was a researchermade questionnaire. The statistical population of the study consisted of citizens between the ages of 18 and 65 years in West Azerbaijan province with about 2116684 people. In the present study, the multistage cluster sampling method was used. For sampling, Cochran sampling formulas were used based on which 384 samples were selected for the study. After determining the sample size according to the geographical extent of West Azerbaijan province, Khoy (the majority of Turkishspeaking individuals) and Salmas (Turkish and Kurdishspeaking) were in the first cluster from the north of the province, Urmia (Turkish and Kurdishspeaking) from the provincial capital, and the cities of Naqadeh (Turkish and Kurdishspeaking) and Mahabad and Piranshahr (the majority of Kurdishspeaking) from the south of the province were selected. Then, based on the method of geographical division in five geographical regions of the cities, two regions were randomly selected. Sampling was done in which their citizens randomly answered the questions of the questionnaire. To test the research hypotheses, Pearson correlation coefficient, analysis of variance, and multiple regression were used simultaneously with SPSS version 24 software. The reliability of the questionnaire was based on Cronbach’s alpha (political violence 0.82, ethnic cleavage 0.81, poor observance of civil rights 0.85, discrimination 0.89, ethnic voting pattern 0.80, and weak identity tolerance 0.71). To test the validity of the questionnaire, structural validity and factor analysis techniques were used. Discussion of Results and Conclusions:The results of factor analysis on 14 questions of ethnic cleavage led to the extraction of three factors (ethnic denial, ethnic distance, and ethnic demarcation), with a specific value higher than one. Together, these three factors accounted for 53.55% of the variance of the ethnic cleavage. Also, the average score of political violence was 2.77, which is moderate to low compared to the score range (1 to 5).  The average rate of ethnic cleavage in the opinion of the respondents was 2.76, which is moderate to high compared to the score range (1.29 to 4.71).Analysis of the data from this survey showed that there was a direct and significant relationship between ethnic cleavage and its dimensions (ethnic denial, ethnic distance, and ethnic demarcation), poor observance of citizenship rights, discrimination, ethnic voting pattern, and poor identity tolerance with political violence. Simultaneous regression and path analysis showed that the variables of ethnic cleavage, ethnic voting pattern, weak observance of citizenship rights, discrimination, and the weakness of identity tolerance affected political violence and explained and predicted 28.3% of the variance of political violence.