Applying resilience thinking to select more sustainable urban development scenarios in Shiraz, Iran

Rapid urbanization is among the most important causes of ecological degradation across different spatial scales ranging from global to regional and local. as protection of ecological health and resiliency has a profound effect on human being and welfare, it is essential for planners to incorporate ecological considerations into landscape and urban planning in order to realize wiser management of the future changes in harmony with sustainable development goals. this research introduces an approach to combine imperviousness indicator with landscape metrics to provide quantitative information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of shiraz region. landsat images are used to map the land cover of shiraz region in 1976, 1990, 2000, and 2005. using landscape metrics, spatial composition and configuration of impervious surface have been quantified. the metrics indicated increase in the size and connectivity of impervious surfaces. results reveal that the growth of urbanization has had tremendous effects on the size and connectivity of natural landscapes, particularly agricultural areas and wetlands. furthermore, two urban growth scenarios have been generated for the year 2021 using modeling and compared using the aforesaid indices. the results point out that smart growth scenario, in which the land is effciently used, is ecologically a more resilient option.