prediction of meteorological and hydrological phenomena in different climatic scenarios in the karkheh watershed (southwest of iran)

This research evaluates the eects of climate change on future temperature, precipitation, and ow discharge in the karkheh watershed (a watershed in southwest of iran). for this purpose, general circulation models (gcms) and the non-parametric mann-kendall (mk) trend test are utilized. considered hydrometric station is the jelogir station at the upstream of the karkheh dam. the base time period is 1971-2014 and the future time period is 2030{2073 for the prediction of meteorological and hydrometric phenomena in the jelogir station. for gcm model, the canadian climate change scenarios network (cccsn) database represents data of hadcm3 model for a2 and b2 scenarios. to investigate the watershed, this research applies statistical downscaliny model (sdsm) downscaling model and introduces the predicted precipitation and temperature of the future time periods to ihacres (identification of unit hydrographs and component ows from rainfall, evapotranspiration and stream ow) model for ow discharge prediction. in addition, the non-parametric mk trend test and the theil-sen approach (tsa) estimator distinguish the trend of observed and predicted data. results of scenarios a2 and b2 are not that much different. different climatic scenarios show that temperature increases and precipitation and ow discharge decrease. moreover, mk test and tsa estimator show that the slope of their variations will slow down in the future, and most of changes are associated with and observed in the winter and spring.