تحلیل زمانی مکانی بروز سرقت در شهر اردبیل

امروزه یکی از مهمترین تهدیدات جامعه بشری مربوط به جرایم انسانی به ویژه سرقت اموال است. عوامل گوناگونی زمینه ساز بروز سرقت هستند که عامل زمان و مکان از مهمترین عوامل بوده و ضرورت دارد در این خصوص تحقیقات علمی صورت بگیرد. در همین راستا، تحقیق حاضر به دنبال بررسی زمان و مکان بروز سرقت های شهر اردبیل است. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف، پژوهشی کاربردی و از نظر شیوه گردآوری داده ها پژوهشی توصیفی_تحلیلی محسوب می شود و جامعه آماری آن شامل کلیه سارقان که در نیمه نخست سال 1396 در زندان اردبیل دوران محکومیت خود را می گذرانند، است که به روش تمام شماری از همه 233 نفر پرسشنامه تکمیل شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌های تحقیق از آزمون های آماری خی دو، کرامز در قالب نرم افزار spss برای آزمون فرضیات تحقیق و از نرم افزارarcgis  برای نمایش گرافیکی توزیع محل سکونت و محل وقوع سرقت استفاده شده است. یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد که سرقت ها اکثراً از طرف افراد متعاد، سابقه دار و دارای مشکل مالی، در فصل تابستان (به ویژه شهریورماه)، در طول شب و آخر هفته و در بافت های تازه ساخت و مرفه نشین رخ داده و با توجه به مشابهت بالا بین محل سکونت و محل وقوع سرقت (مشابهت 5/ 44 درصدی در بافت تازه ساخت، 3/ 33 درصدی در بافت ارگانیک، 8/ 43 درصدی در بافت حاشیه ای، 8/ 44 درصدی در بافت میانی و 25 درصدی در بافت روستاهای ادغامی) می توان گفت که بین محل سکونت و محل وقوع سرقت رابطه معنی داری در سطح آماری 95 درصد وجود دارد. نهایتاً اینگونه نتیجه گیری می شود که سرقت های شهر اردبیل در زمان و مکان خاصی رخ می دهند و در این خصوص پیشنهادهایی برای پیشگیری و کاهش سرقت ارائه شده است.

Spatial temporal analysis of robbery occurrence inArdebil

IntroductionRobbery is a behavioral and social deviation that has been regarded as a crime and negative, abnormal behavior almost regardless of when and where it has been committed. It is one of the oldest human crimes, observed in various forms in different societies. It is a phenomenon of great importance that disturbs the individual’s and society’s security in both financial and physical terms. Since robbery can take place in particular time and location ranges, the main aim of the current research was to identify factors effective on the time and location of committing the crime in the city of Ardabil, Iran, and the researcher sought to provide an answer to the basic question of when and where robbery is committed in Ardabil. MethodologyThis was an applied descriptiveanalytical study in terms of aim and data collection methodology. The research population included all the robbers serving their sentences at Ardabil jail in Spring and Summer 2017, all 233 of whom filled out questionnaires based on the complete enumeration method. Data collection was carried out through documentary analysis and field elicitation (using a questionnaire). SPSS was used for description and analysis of the data and examination of the hypotheses in accordance with the scales of measurement of the research variables. Thus, the chisquare test was used for investigation of the frequency distributions of the temporal and spatial variables, and Kramers’ test for the relationship between robber’s place of residence and crime scene. The ArcGIS software was also used for analysis of the dispersion of robber’s place of residence and crime scene. ResultsPlace of residence and crime scene were found to be dispersed for most robbers serving their sentences at Ardabil jail. However, the highest frequency of place of residence was observed for the northwestern part, including the suburban area (northwest) and the semiorganic area (central part). As for crime scene, the highest frequency concerned the central part and the newlyconstructed area (newlyconstructed neighborhoods located in the central part). Given the great similarity between robber’s place of residence and crime scene based on Kramers’ test results, it could be stated that there was a significant relationship between the two variables. Moreover, the chisquare test results demonstrated that most of the robberies had been committed in summer (September), during the night, on the weekend, and by the drug addict with criminal records and financial problems. ConclusionStatistical tests and dispersion maps were used in this research for investigation of the times and locations of committing robbery. It could be concluded based on the findings that the crime was committed at particular × that is, temporal conditions were effective on the occurrence of robbery. Most of the robberies had taken place in newlyconstructed, wealthy areas. In fact, the commitment of robbery followed a particular dispersion pattern in spatial terms, and there was similarity and accordance between robber’s place of residence and crime scene, as evidenced by the observations, hence the significant relationship between the two variables.