تبیین تحقق فضایی چشم انداز استان فارس بر اساس علیت عدم قطعیت ها

بررسی اسناد توسعه منطقه ای استان فارس همواره نشان داده است که فاصله بین ایده آل های مطرح شده تا واقعیت های محقق شده بسیار زیاد است و سبب مسئله شدن چگونه فائق آمدن بر عدم قطعیت های پیش روی نیروهای پیشران چشم انداز گردیده است. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی عدم قطعیت های پیش روی چشم انداز توسعه استان فارس و تعیین چارچوب فضایی حاصل از سناریوهای مختلف به رشته تحریر درآمده است. به این منظور با استفاده از روش خبرگی، از متخصصان امر خواسته شد تا با توجه به چشم انداز توسعه استان فارس به بیان عدم قطعیت ها بپردازند. سپس با مقایسه دو دویی عدم قطعیت ها در تحلیل ساختاری، هفت عدم قطعیت شبکه های آزاد راهی و بزرگ راهی، سرعت زیرساخت های فناوری اطلاعات، حمل و نقل بار هوایی، دسترسی به دریا، تکنولوژی و فناوری و شبکه ریلی به عنوان عدم قطعیت های کلیدی حاصل از این دو روش تعیین گردید. اما بنا به نقش مهم، دو متغیر (مدیریت منطقه ای و منابع آب در تحقق چشم انداز استان فارس) نیز به عنوان عدم قطعیت در نظر گرفته شدند. در مرحله بعد با در نظر گرفتن روندهای چشم انداز توسعه استان در کنار عدم قطعیت های شناسایی شده اقدام به تعیین سناریوهای قوی به کمک تحلیل آثار متقاطع متوازن گردید. نتایج این تحلیل نشان دهنده 21 سناریو قوی در تحقق پذیری چشم انداز است که به سه سناریو کلی تر شامل: عملکرد قوی محلی با چند عملکرد ملی، عملکرد قوی ملی با چند عملکرد بین المللی و عملکرد قوی بین المللی با یک عملکرد ملی تلفیق شد و  به ازای هر یک از این سناریوها، راهبردها و شاخص های نظارتی تعریف گردید.

Spatial Realization of Fars province vision based on the causality of uncertainties

An investigation of the documents on regional development in Fars Province, Iran shows that there is such a wide gap between the ideals mentioned in the plans and their potentials for realization that it has turned into a big challenge how to realize the spatial prospects of the development plans in the province. By reviewing the development documents from 1997 to 2013, the authors found that the province suffered from a range of uncertainties in all the regional scenarios. Therefore, the prospects and objectives of the plan have not been realized throughout the period. In this research, futurology was adopted as a method for foresight and specification of the uncertainties based on the available information. Employment of this method along with scenariobased strategic planning enables the local administrators to imagine the various images of future development and prepare themselves for different conditions to take place. On that basis, the driving forces and uncertainties were first defined using the Delphi method and structural analysis. The results of the models demonstrated that the key uncertainties for the province included freeway and highway network access, information technology speed, air freight terminals, access to the sea, and railway technology and network. Although not included on the list, water resources and regional administration were both added as suggested by the expert experience. Furthermore, the prospects of the province were divided into nine driving forces, including hightech industries (electronics, aerospace, information technology, and pharmacy), agricultural industries (agriculture, animal husbandry, and the food industry), other industries (oil, gas, the petrochemical industry, mining, energyintensives industries, and the automotive industry), healthcare service (medicine, ophthalmology, and organ transplantation), tourism (tourism and handicrafts), transportation (airport services, railways, and road transport), other services (higher education, financial services, technical and engineering services, and trade), knowledge economy (knowledgebased activities, bio and nanotechnology), and defense. 21 strong scenarios were then found using the crossimpact balance method, classified into three major scenarios: Scenario 1, strong local performance and weak national performance, Scenario 2, strong national performance and weak international performance, and Scenario 3, strong international performance and a single national performance. In the first scenario, the spatial framework of the province moves toward the monocentric pattern, with the national functions administered by the government, due to the severe shortage of water resources, fragmented management, and undeveloped infrastructure. In the second scenario, the province can play a substantial role at the national level and a weak role at the international level, with cluster networks functioning as the spatial pattern, due to the integrated management, particularly with respect to the water resources, . In the last scenario, the province exhibits great international performance in all its prospects, functioning at the national level only in the defense sector, thanks to the regional governance, developed infrastructure, and influence on international processes. Furthermore, weighted strategies along with control indicators were presented for all the above scenarios.