بررسی و تحلیل آثار هدفمندسازی یارانه‎ها بر تغییر مالیات غیرمستقیم استان خراسان رضوی

طرح هدفمندسازی یارانه‌ها در ایران یکی از مهم‌ترین بخش‌ها و نمایان‌ترین بخش طرح تحول اقتصادی است که به تغییر فرآیند اعطای یارانه‌ها می‌انجامد. گسترش تعهدات دولت در عرصه‎های اقتصادی و اجتماعی و تلاش در جهت تحقق رشد اقتصادی و توزیع عادلانه درآمد، پرداخت و دریافت مالیات را به امری مهم و تاثیرگذار تبدیل کرده است. مالیات یکی از اهرم‌های بسیار مهم اقتصادی در دست دولت است که در جلوگیری از تورم و رکود و همچنین در تعدیل و توزیع عادلانه ثروت در جامعه نقش عمده‌ای دارد. در این مقاله با استفاده از نظرات کارشناسان و متخصصان مالیاتی و نیز تکیه بر آمار موجود و تدوین پرسشنامه، به تشخیص مسیرهای تاثیرگذاری طرح هدفمندی یارانه‎ها بر تغییر ترکیب مالیاتی استان خراسان رضوی پرداخته شده است و اثرات این تغییر در سال 1391، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان می‌دهد در صورت اعمال قانون هدفمندسازی یارانه‌ها، تغییراتی قابل‌ملاحظه‌ای در سهم مالیات‌ها صورت نگرفته است. در مورد مالیات غیرمستقیم (مالیات بر کالا و خدمات)، شواهد نشان می‌دهد که تغییرات مقادیر وصولی مالیات بر کالا و خدمات بیش از آنکه تابع سیاست هدفمندسازی باشد، تابع متغیرهای برون‌زایی است که بر مالیات ستانی اثرگذارند.

Analysis of the Effect of Combined Subsidies on the Indirect Tax Change in Khorasan Razavi

Targeted Subsidies is an important and visible part of the economic development plan which leads to a change in the subsidy. Factors such as the expansion and diversification of economic activities, the increasing role of government in the development of public services, social security, the development of government commitments in social and economic fields, efforts towards realizing economic growth, and equitable distribution of income have turned the payment and receipt of taxes to an important and effective tool. Taxation is one of the most important levers in the hands of the government which has a major role in preventing inflation and recession as well as in a fair distribution of wealth in the society. Methodology In order to reach the objectives of this study, the following question was raised:Has the targeted subsidies plan affected the combination of taxes?The statistical population included informed and clearsighted people about factors affecting the tax income including experts of the tax organization. Statistical sle consisted of 35 persons and the method of sle selection was random sling. After collecting questionnaires, data analysis was performed using SPSS software package. Given that the studied variable in this research is measured based on an interval scale, the following relations were used to determine the sle size: Where, r is the upper bound of the relative error determined previously, N is the size of population, S and are population’s parameters (error coefficient is and confidence coefficient in level of 99% is equal to ). The required sle size for each group of statistical population was obtained as the table below.Table1: population and sle sizesGroupPopulation sizeParameter estimation from initial sleFinal sle sizemeanStandard deviationTaxes on goods and services 823.650.7235The questionnaire queries the effectiveness of various factors on the amount of tax on goods and services.Validity of questionnaireValidity means to what extend the provided tool measures the considered specific concept (Secaran, 2001). The questionnaire used in this research has been validated according to theoretical foundations and the opinion of experts, intendants and advisers .Reliability of the questionnaire In order to calculate Cronbach alpha, firstly, it is required that the variance of scores of each subset of questions be calculated and then the total variance be determined. Then by replacing them into the following formula the value of the Cronbach alpha will be obtained: Where, k is the number of subsets of questionnaire or questions of questionnaire is the variance of kth question and is the total variance.Thus, Cronbach alpha reflects the amount of positive correlation of the members of a set with each other. Table2: Cronbach alpha coefficientRowQuestionnaireCronbach alpha coefficient1Taxes on goods and services0.840Results and discussion In checking his hypothesis, in order to get familiar with the manner of answers provided to the questionnaire and the significance test of each of them, firstly using frequency tables, we checked the answers. Then using tstudent significance test, we checked the mean of answers so that a clear result was obtained about the view of respondents on each question.Table3. reports the results of evaluating frequency percentage of provided answers to independent variable questions (Taxes on goods and services)(%)rowFactorIncrease so muchincreaseDo not changedecreaseDecrease so much1Decreased export02048.628.62.92Increased import25.742.914.317.103Decreased production (decreased economic growth)2.977.1017.12.94Increased prices general level2.977.101.712.95budget deficit (increased government debit, more money issue for supplying government’s expenditure)2.976.514.75.90*See the rest of the table to textAs observed in the questionnaire, the scores given to each item of the questionnaire are as follow: highly reduces (1), reduces (2), does not change (3), increases (4), highly increases(5). Basically, the value of 3 is considered as the comparison criterion and test of mean comparison. The result of this test is reported in table (4) bellow.Now, after tstudent test and understanding the relationship between research variables, we draw path analysis diagrams to understand the direct and indirect effects of dependent and independent variables. Path analysis of variables studied in this research question can be seen in Graph 1 below. Graph 1: Path analysis of research variables (Taxes on goods and services)ConclusionTotally, in the analysis of trends and the share of proceeds of direct and indirect taxes, it is important that before and after the implementation of the plan, no evident and significant change is observed in the trend of components and the total collected direct tax. In other words, the policy of targeted subsidies, at least in the short term, has had no significant effect on the amount of tax on goods and services proceeds.