تاثیر شفافیت بانک مرکزی بر تلاطم نرخ ارز درکشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک

از زمان فروپاشی نظام برتن وودز در سال 1973 و اتخاذ سیستم نرخ ارز شناور، تلاطم نرخ ارز همیشه به عنوان یک موضوع اصلی و نگران کننده پیش روی گروه های مختلفی از فعالان اقتصادی از جمله سیاست گذاران، بانک های مرکزی، دانشگاهیان و سرمایه گذارهای فردی بوده است. از میان عوامل احتمالی که می تواند نرخ ارز و به طور کلی تلاطم نرخ ارز را در مسیرکاهشی قرار دهد، کانال شفافیت بانک مرکزی است که افزایش آن در چند دهه گذشته یکی از مهم ترین تحولات بانکداری مرکزی در سیاست گذاری های پولی بوده است. بنابراین این سوال مطرح می شود که شفافیت بانک مرکزی چگونه می تواند بر تلاطم نرخ ارز تاثیر بگذارد. مهم ترین استنباطی که از ادبیات گذشته پیرامون موضوع شفافیت بانک مرکزی می شود این است که افزایش ارائه اطلاعاتی توسط بانک های مرکزی در قالب اطلاع رسانی سیاست پولی، منجر به افزایش توانایی مردم در درک اهداف بانک مرکزی و بهبود پیش بینی هایشان از سیاست های پولی بانک مرکزی است که این امر از تغییر در مواضع سیاست بانک مرکزی در بی ثبات کردن بازارهای مالی از جمله بازار ارز جلوگیری خواهد کرد که البته این موضوع می تواند نیازمند وجود یک بانک مرکزی مستقل باشد. بنابراین پژوهش حاضر سعی دارد با بکارگیری دو روش حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملاً اصلاح شده و حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا  و به کمک داده های ترکیبی برای دوره 1998-2019 و مبانی نظری مرتبط، به بررسی تاثیر شفافیت بانک مرکزی بر تلاطم نرخ ارز در کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک بپردازد. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که شفافیت بانک مرکزی و استقلال بانک مرکزی از متغیرهای تاثیرگذار بر تلاطم نرخ ارز هستند و با تلاطم نرخ ارز رابطه منفی و معنی داری دارند. همچنین نتایج این مطالعه رابطه منفی و معنی دار درآمد نفتی و رشد اقتصادی با تلاطم نرخ ارز را تایید می کند.

the impact of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility in selected opec member countries

1- introduction since the collapse of the bretton woods system in 1973 and the adoption of floating exchange rate system, exchange rate volatility (erv) has become a central issue and concern for various groups of agents including policy makers, central banks, academics and individual investors among others. central bank transparency (cbt) is one of the possible factors which can reduce exchange rate or generally exchange rate volatility that increase it’s in has been one of the main developments in central banking in the past few decades. thus, this leads to the question of the effect of central bank transparency on the volatility of exchange rates. the most important inferred from the previous literature on the issue of central bank transparency is that the increase of information provision by the central banks in the form of communication of monetary policy will lead to an increase in the ability of people to understanding the objectives of the central bank and improve their forecasts from the monetary policy of the central bank, which will prevent changes in the central bank’s policy stance from destabilizing financial markets , which this could be required existing an independent central bank. due to the fact that in oil exporting countries, especially opec member countries, the move towards more transparent monetary policy has been slow, thus the increase in central bank transparency and existing an independence of the central bank can have been decreasing effect on exchange rate volatility. also, this study used the extended central bank independence (ecbi) index is the newly created index of central bank independence (cbi). therefore, the purpose of this study is to examining the impact of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility in selected opec member countries to use two approaches fully modified ordinary least squares (fmols) and dynamic ordinary least squares (dols) that in perversion research have been ignored. 2- theoretical framework according to the existing literature, cbt is said to be based on performing several tasks: the clear formulation of monetary policy objectives, the regular publication of economic outlooks and forecasts, the disclosure of methods, the regular publication of press releases and minutes of monetary policy meetings, and the regular organization of press conferences and other meetings with media and the public. as central banks have been moving towards more transparent policies over the last two decades, some of them started publishing their own forecasts on the future state of the economy. projections of future growth rate of gdp and inflation rate are but two examples of such forecasts. these changes in the practice of central banking resulted in considerable growth in the literature. the aspect of transparency people is interested in has to do with release of central bank projections of the future state of the economy. of course, if, that there is no strategic attempt to manipulate the public’s beliefs and in this context with the people have been truthful. one of the main goals of most central banks is to stabilise the economy and reduce economic fluctuations. this includes a reduction in inflation volatility, output variation, and exchange rate volatility. blinder (1998) argues that a nation’s central bank should explain its actions to the people, so as to remove the mystery behind the decision - making process. if the bank cannot provide a clear explanation of a decision, then the decision may not be a good one. thus, that more open public disclosure of central bank policies may enhance the efficiency of financial markets. first, greater information about how a central bank makes policy decisions would curtail excessive speculation. second, clearer decision rules on the part of the central bank would help to reduce the volatility of markets, and thus enhance the predictability of future movements of financial assets.