اثر حجم نقدینگی بر فساد در کشورهای منتخب حوزه منا

مهم ترین آثار فساد در کشورهای درحال توسعه این است که تلاش های رقابت پذیری و فقرزدایی را ناکام می سازد، موجب بی اعتمادی مردم به دولت حاکم می شود؛ با گسترش فساد عدالت در جامعه کمرنگ شده و جای خود را به فقر و کاهش رفاه افراد جامعه می دهد. فساد به یکی از عوامل تاثیرگذار سد راه توسعه بخصوص در کشورهای عمده تولید کننده نفت تبدیل شده است؛ لذا شناخت و راه های مقابله با آن در صدر برنامه های توسعه قرار گرفته است. نقدینگی متغیر مهمی در اقتصاد است؛ رشد نقدینگی به دلایل مختلفی از جمله کسری بودجه دولت و استقراض از بانک مرکزی، افزایش نامتعارف سود بانکی و ... است. اگر نقدینگی واردکانال تولید شود موجب افزایش حجم تولید ناخالص داخلی و افزایش اشتغال و رشد می شود؛ اما افزایش نقدینگی همراه با سرعت بالای گردش پول باعث توزیع رانت و فساد در کشور می گردد. در بیشتر مطالعات صورت گرفته در زمینه علل فساد و راه های مقابله با آن اغلب بر نقش دولت تاکید شده است و نقش بانک مرکزی و سیستم پرداخت در یک کشور نادیده گرفته شده است. با توجه به اهمیت اقتصادی و جغرافیایی کشورهای عمده تولید کننده نفت در این پژوهش به بررسی تاثیر نقدینگی بر فساد کشورهای منطقه منا طی سال های 20052018 با استفاده از روش گشتاور تعمیم یافته (gmm) پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد میزان فساد دوره قبل و نقدینگی دوره جاری بر فساد تاثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد. میزان تولید ناخالص داخلی بیشترین متغیرتاثیرگذار بر فساد کشورهای منا است؛ یک درصد افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه میزان فساد را به میزان 4.5 درصد کاهش می دهد. نتایج این تحقیق در جهت دهی سیاست های بانک مرکزی و دولت های حاکم در هر کشور مفید می باشد.

The effect of liquidity on the corruption in the selected countries of MENA region

Introduction Corruption is very important issue because it affects all elements of society, economic, political or cultural. Corruption also causes a decline in human capital and the loss of individuals’ innate talents in society, leading society to distribute rents. Corruption exists in all democracies and democracies, but the fight against it is more prominent in democracies. The nature of the MENA countries is oilproducing countries the economy relies on oil revenues, which are often run by relatively large and inefficient governments. In these societies, the distribution of rent and power to maintain power is almost common. Wherever there is talk of power and authority, there is also the phenomenon of corruption. The most influential and popular variable for corrupt transactions is cash. On the other hand, developing countries, including the countries of MENA, have high liquidity and inflation, both of which strengthen each other. According to the quantity theory of money, the volume of money in society should be equal to the importance of goods and services in simple terms. When this alliance is not established, the greatest pressure is on the people; it becomes. If not entering the channel of GDP, high liquidity and inflation will reduce the welfare and dissatisfaction of people in society. Given the importance of these two variables to achieve economic and political stability and also to achieve the goal of sustainable development this study seeks to answer the question: Is the amount of liquidity is affected on the corruption in selected countries in the MENA region during the period 20052018?   Theoretical framework Efforts to achieve sustainable development in the form of good governance indicators and development goals by the World Bank and the United Nations have been main duty by developing countries in recent years. One of the important variables of these goals is the corruption control index. Corruption has a negative consequences at the economic, political, and human and social levels of societies. Through the harm it creates, it has become one of the main obstacles to development. The growth of liquidity, depending on the degree of corruption control in society, can have two opposite effects on the economy. On the other hand, in an economy with a low degree of corruption, liquidity is considered one of the indicators of financial development and it increases economic growth, on the other hand, in an economy with a high degree of corruption, the balance of speculative funds increases and reduces economic growth as well. Methodology Model variables and data  has been extracted  from the World Bank website  and covers the period 20052018 for selected MENA countries which are including Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, #United Arab Emirates and Turkey. This paper uses an alternative measure of corruption which is the Control of Corruption Index (CC) published by the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators. Other data and variables such as: liquidity, GDP per capita, government size, economic openness, inflation and internet Extracted from the World Bank website and the Press Freedom Index extracted from the annual reports of the Freedom House. The functional form of the panel data model is as follows: Corruption it= αi+ ρ Corruptioni,t1+ β1 BMit+ β2 GDp < sub>it+ β3 GOVit+ β4 OPENNESSit + β5 INFLATIONit + β6 PRESSit + β7 INTERNETit +εit To estimate the model we have applied the twostep system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method. Results Discussion According to the results of the model estimate, it can be seen that the rate of corruption in the previous year and also the current liquidity on the corruption of the countries of MENA region is statistically positive and significant and a one percent increase in corruption in the previous period led to increase 0.56 percent corruption and one percent increase in liquidity of the current period increases the rate of corruption of the current period by 0.001 percent. It can be said that in the selected countries of MENA during the period 20052018, the corruption variable of the previous period has a greater impact on the level of corruption in these countries than the current liquidity variable. The most influential variable on corruption in the countries of the MENA region in both methods is GDP per capita. So that one percent increase in GDP per capita reduces the rate of corruption by 2.47 percent. Among the controls variables the effect of government size, openness, freedom of the press and the Internet on corruption in the MENA countries during 20052018 is negligible and statistically significant, while the effect of inflation on corruption is statistically insignificant.   Conclusions Suggestions In this paper, we examine whether liquidity affects the level of corruption in a MENA countries? According to the results the effect of the past level of corruption and the current liquidity on the corruption of the countries of the MENA region are statistically positive and significant. The existence of corruption in the country in previous years leads to the institutionalization of corrupt practices in the country; High liquidity also facilitates money laundering and corrupt transactions. In fact, the ease with which transactions can be made will strengthen corrupt groups and their actions over the years. To reduce the existing liquidity in society and subsequently try to reduce corruption in the countries of the MENA region, the following solutions are proposed: Apply high opportunity cost to use less transactions in the traditional way with high liquidity, such as accruing interest on current accounts and electronic payment cards to the extent that new payment tools are costeffective for consumers. Apply discounts on financial transactions above a specific limit per day or month for online purchases or ecard purchases. Use new payment methods for labour services. Also we suggest that governments should evolve laws to prohibit cash transactions beyond a threshold level.