سنجش و ارزیابی میزان تاب‌آوری نواحی شهری در برابر زلزله (موردی: ناحیه غربی شهر ایذه)

یکی از راهکارهای موفق در زمینه کاهش آسیب‌پذیری ناشی از مخاطرات، ارتقای تاب‌آوری (اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی و نهادی) می‌باشد. موقعیت جغرافیایی منطقه موردمطالعه و دفعات وقوع مخاطرات طبیعی(زلزله). در آن مهمترین عامل انجام پژوهش حاضر بوده که هدف اصلی آن سنجش میزان تاب‌آوری مناطق شهری می‌باشد. به همین منظور در این پژوهش به منظور بررسی مولفه ای اجتماعی و اقتصادی و نهادی تاثیر گذار در تاب‌آوری شهری از ابزار پرسشنامه استفاده شد. نتایج آزمون های رگرسیون و پیرسون نشان داد که در ناحیه غربی شهر ایذه متغیر عوامل اجتماعی با ضریب0.741 درصد، بیشترین تاثیر را در تاب‌آوری این منطقه داشته و عوامل نهادی باضریب 0.547 درصد کمترین عامل اثرگذار در تاب آوری شهری این منطقه می‌باشد. همچنین آزمون رگرسیون نیز مشخص کرد که متغیر مستقل اجتماعی با 54 درصد، اقتصادی 42 درصد و نهادی با 29 درصد توانسته بر تاب‌آوری تاثیر بگذارد.در روش دوم و برای مشخص نمودن تاثیر مولفه کالبدی بر تاب‌آوری شهری از 5 شاخص اصلی (کیفیت، قدمت، نوع مصالح، مساحت و دسترسی به ابنیه‌ها) تاثیر گذار بر کاهش آسیب‌پذیری کالبدی شهر در برابر زلزله استفاده گردید نتایج بررسی ها با استفاده از نرم افزار arc gis و مدل سلسله مراتبی فازی (fahp) نشان داد که محدوده مرکزی ناحیه غربی شهر ایذه به دلایل: قدمت بالا ابنیه‌ها و کیفیت پایین ساخت‌وساز را به‌عنوان مناطقی با پایین ترین سطح تاب‌آوری در کل ناحیه مشخص کرد.

Measurement and Evaluation of Resilience to Earthquake Urban Areas (Case Study: Western District of Izeh City)

One of the successful ways to reduce the vulnerability result of hazards is promoting the (economic, social, physical, and institutional) toleration. The geographical location of the study area and the occurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes) have been the most important factors in the present study, with the main purpose to measure the toleration of urban area. For this purpose, in this study, in order to study the social, economic and institutional component affecting on urban toleration, the questionnaire was used. The results of regression and Pearson tests showed that in the western part of Izeh city, the variable of social factors with a coefficient of 0.741 percent had the greatest effect on the toleration of this region and institutional factors with a coefficient of 0.547 percent had the least effective factor on urban toleration in this region. The regression test also found that an independent social variable with 54%, an economic variable with 42% and an institutional variable with 29% were able to influence on toleration. In the second method and to determine the effect of the somatic component on urban toleration, 5 main indicators (quality, antiquity, type of materials, area and access to buildings) effecting on reduction of the skeletal vulnerability of the city against earthquakes were used. The results of the studies using software Arc GIS and fuzzy hierarchical model (FAHP) showed that the central area of the western part of Izeh city was identified as areas with the lowest level of toleration in the whole area due to the high antiquity of buildings and low quality of construction. Extended abstractIntroductionAt the beginning of the 21st century, the world has witnessed massive natural and unnatural disasters. Nasrabadi et al. The world warns that predictions and solutions and ways to deal with these disasters are still insufficient . One of the most important natural hazards is the natural phenomenon of earthquakes or earthquakes (Zangiabadi et al., 2013).                      (According to published statistics, 170 highmagnitude earthquakes have occurred in the last 100 years in the world, with Iran’s share of 18%( Ghafouri et al., 2009: 13) in recent years. Institutions and agencies active in the field Most accidents have focused on achieving a resilient society against accidents. Among the cities with the highest potential for seismicity is the city of Izeh. In terms of seismic risk zoning, the city of Izeh has a medium to high risk. The city of Izeh and the area of ​​direct influence are in high risk: Therefore, due to the poor condition of the city of Izeh and the history of earthquakes in this city, the aim of this study is to measure and evaluate the resilience of Izeh areas against earthquakes .                                 MethodologyThe present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of survey and descriptiveanalytical methods. Comprehensive review Socioeconomic and institutional influences on urban resilience to earthquakes 4 social, economic, institutional and physical indicators have been used. In order to determine the sample size, the Cochran’s formula of 379 people was determined.Data collection of social, economic and institutional indicators was done through SPSS questionnaire and software and physical index data was performed through basic maps in the geographic information system. Finally, the weights obtained from the model (FAHP) (in the Weighted overlay toolbox were stacked on top of each other, and its output was accurately displayed in the form of a map of the amount of earthquake resistance in the city.Results and discussionMeasuring the role of three social, economic and institutional indicators in the resilience of the western region of Izeh city showed that there is a positive and direct correlation between these three indicators and urban resilience in the study area. More precisely, the results of the correlation test showed that social factors such as neighborhood relations and participation in collective work, etc. with a total coefficient of 0.741 percent had the greatest effect on urban resilience and other economic and institutional parameters with respectively 0. 656 and 0,547 percent have different effects on urban resilience. However, to measure and analyze the physical resilience of the western part of the city against earthquakes, 5 types of building materials were used, quality of buildings, age of buildings, area of ​​buildings and status of access to buildings (results of comparison of criteria using hierarchical analysis model). Faizi states that more than 95% of the area in the western part of Izeh is unsafe against the natural risk of earthquakes, and this indicates the high age of buildings and the low quality of construction in this area, which is unfavorable in terms of quality and due to the city’s climate. Also, the seismicity of this area should improve the quality of living conditions in this area.ConclusionNatural hazards have become one of the main concerns of urban planners and managers in recent years due to the intensity and short time of impact on urban communities. Due to its attitude and the use of all influential indicators in social, economic, institutional and physical urban resilience, as well as field and geographical research methods, the present study is very different from previous studies and is a more comprehensive study of previous research in this field. Research by other researchers could lead to lessons in preparing for increased resilience in the face of reactions and crises. In such a way that safety in the face of risks is considered as a goal in all levels of planned planning, which reduces vulnerability and increases resilience in cities. Due to the climate of the city and the seismicity of this area, the quality of living conditions in this area should be improved; Therefore, in addition to physical solutions, urban development requires managerial solutions as well as empowering the residents of the areas.