سنجش و ارزیابی میزان تاب‌آوری فضایی محلات مرکزی شهر کاشان در برابر زلزله

امروزه توجه به مبحث تاب‌آوری در جهت ایجاد جامعه‌ای انعطاف پذیر در برابر بلایای طبیعی حائز اهمیت فراوانی است. افزایش تاب‌آوری شهرها در برابر بلایای طبیعی به ویژه زمین لرزه‌ها به میزان زیادی در کاهش این خسارات و همچنین زمان بهبودی جوامع موثر است. در این میان برنامه‌ریزان و مدیران شهری به منزله مهم‌ترین نهادهای درگیر در طراحی کالبد شهرها نقشی اساسی در افزایش تاب‌آوری جوامع شهری در برابر زمین لرزه دارند. مفهوم تاب‌آوری، مفهوم جدیدی است که بیشتر در مواجهه با ناشناخته‌ها و عدم قطعیت‌ها به‌کاربرده می‌شود. هدف از انجام این تحقیق سنجش و ارزیابی میزان تاب آوری فضایی در محلات مرکزی شهر کاشان می باشد. روش تحقیق، توصیفی تحلیلی است و ابزار اصلی گردآوری داده‌ها پرسشنامه محقق ساخته می‌باشد. جامعه آماری مورد مطالعه ساکنین محلات مرکزی شهر کاشان می‌باشد، که جهت تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج حاصل از پرسشنامه از آزمون آنوا از طریق نرم افزار spss و همچنین از روش مدل یابی ساختاری(sem) با استفاده از نرم افزار amos و آزمون t استفاده شده است. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که محلات از نظر شاخص اقتصادی، کالبدی و اجتماعی با یکدیگر و از نظر شاخص تاب‌آوری با وضع ایده‌آل تفاوت معناداری دارد. همچنین متغیرهای اجتماعی، اقتصادی و سطح درآمد در میزان تاب‌آوری تاثیر داشته‌اند.جامعه آماری مورد مطالعه ساکنین محلات مرکزی شهر کاشان می‌باشد، که جهت تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج حاصل از پرسشنامه از آزمون آنوا از طریق نرم افزار spss و همچنین از روش مدل یابی ساختاری(sem) با استفاده از نرم افزار amos و آزمون t استفاده شده است. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که محلات از نظر شاخص اقتصادی، کالبدی و اجتماعی با یکدیگر و از نظر شاخص تاب‌آوری با وضع ایده‌آل تفاوت معناداری دارد. همچنین متغیرهای اجتماعی، اقتصادی و سطح درآمد در میزان تاب‌آوری تاثیر داشته‌اند.

Measurement, and Evaluation of Spatial Resilience of Earthquake Central Districts of Kashan

Today, paying attention to the topic of resilience is crucial to building a resilient, disasterfree society. Increasing the resilience of cities to natural disasters, especially earthquakes, is greatly effective in reducing these damages, as well as in the recovery time of communities. In the meantime, urban planners and managers, as the most important institutions involved in the design of cities, play a key role in enhancing the resilience of urban communities to earthquakes. The concept of resilience is a new concept, more commonly used in the face of unknowns and uncertainties. The purpose of this research is to measure and evaluate the rate of spatial resilience in central Kashan. The research method is descriptiveanalytical, and the main data gathering tool is a researchermade questionnaire. The statistical population of the study was residents of central Kashan, who analyzed the results of questionnaire, ANOVA test using SPSS software and SEM using Amos software, and Ttest was used. The results of the significant indices of the indices are: economic index (021), physical index (147.), and social index (579.), respectively. The results of this study showed that Kashan neighborhoods were significantly different in terms of economic, physical, and social indexes and ideally resilience indexes. Social, economic, and income variables also influenced resilience.  Extended abstract Introduction:           Assessing the vulnerability of cities to natural hazards, such as earthquakes, is considered an unpleasant problem. On the other hand, natural disasters often impose significant and longterm stress on economic, social and environmental systems. When a city is exposed to earthquake hazards, elements of earthquake safety must be considered in a community land use plan. Earthquake hazard, and the vulnerability of urban settings, are two major components of earthquake hazards. Planners, while considering sustainable land use policies, assess the impact of urban settings on earthquake hazard reduction. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial resilience of central neighborhoods of Kashan in all economic, physical and social dimensions. And since the central districts of Kashan are at risk, resilience seeks to reduce risk, and to increase the capacity of central districts to resist disaster. In Kashan there are about 772 hectares of wornout tissue, where resilience seeks the ability to recover or recover quickly the wornout tissue in all dimensions (economic, physical, social). In this study, we tried to compare and compare the spatial resilience of Kashan’s central neighborhoods in economic, physical, and social dimensions. Methodology:         The purpose of this study is practical and library and field studies have been used for data collection. The required information was collected through a researchermade questionnaire using field studies. The statistical population of this study is inhabitants of central districts, Sultan Mir Ahmad, Ab Anbar Khan, Bahonar, Ziarati, Meydan Kohaneh, and Taher and Mansour in the wornout texture of Kashan. Sample size was calculated using Cochran’s formula 382, ​​and in order to process the information, to analyze the spatial resilience of neighborhoods, within the study area, structural equation modeling methods, and analysis methods Statistical analysis, including SPSS and Amos software and ANOVA, was used. The main research data collection tool was a researchermade questionnaire, and the variables used in the questionnaires were collected through a study of research background, field research, and faculty members’ opinions. Results: In this study, five hypotheses were examined based on goals. The first hypothesis sought to answer the question whether the level of economic resilience is the same in central Kashan. Based on this hypothesis, the ANOVA test was used to measure the equality of economic resilience index. The results show that the pilgrimage and Bahonar neighborhoods are in one group and the neighborhoods of Sultan MirMohammad and Kohan Square and Anbar Khan Water, and Taher and Mansour neighborhood, with a separate group. Pilgrimage and artisanal neighborhoods are part of Kashan’s newly built neighborhoods, and therefore have a higher income level than other neighborhoods. In the test, the significance level (sig in the table and p in the report) is equal to (021.) and this value is less than 0.05 and thus in the test considered, the data rejected the assumption of equality of variances. The results showed that the hypothesis was rejected. The second hypothesis examines the central neighborhoods of Kashan city in terms of physical resilience index, which was used by ANOVA and Duncan test. The results show that the pilgrimage and artisanal neighborhoods are in one group and the neighborhoods of Sultan Mir Ahmad and Abar Khan Khan in one group and Taher, Mansour and Kohan Square in a separate group. In this test the significance level is equal to (147.) and this value is greater than 0.05 and as a result in the test the data did not reject the assumption of equality of variances (assumption of variance equality was rejected). In the third hypothesis, the central neighborhoods of Kashan city were examined for social resilience index. In this hypothesis, ANOVA and Duncan test were used to analyze the data showing that pilgrimage sites and old field in a group and The neighborhoods of Sultan Mir Ahmad and Bahonar and Anbar Khan water, and Taher and Mansour, fall into a separate group. The significance level of the test is equal to (579.) and this value is greater than 0.05 and as a result the data do not reject the assumption of equality of variances (assumption of equality of variances rejected). In the fourth hypothesis, social variables in resilience of central districts of Kashan were analyzed and analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Structural equation modeling has been used to investigate the relationship between social, economic and physical factors in Kashan central neighborhoods. Therefore, fifteen subindicators were evaluated among these three main indicators. According to Table 11, the regression coefficients of all subindices of the three main indices under study have a significant coefficient of less than 05, indicating a good relationship of these variables with resilience. Also, to evaluate the model, the criterion fidelity index was investigated, and all indices were acceptable. Taken together, it can be concluded that the socioeconomic factors influence the resilience of neighborhoods and the null hypothesis is rejected. Therefore, the fourth hypothesis was confirmed. Conclusion:         The results showed that neighborhoods were significantly different in terms of economic, physical and social index and ideally resiliency index. Also, social, economic and income variables have an impact on resiliency.Statistical analysis of this study shows that the texture of Kashan city, especially the wornout texture, is not in good condition in terms of resilience indices, and the citizens are not satisfied with this. Numerical results indicate that the city of Kashan is vulnerable to earthquakes. Therefore, the city of Kashan needs careful planning in this field to prevent the occurrence of irreparable accidents and losses.