تحلیل نقش رونق و رکود اقتصادی بر رفاه در ایران: مقایسه ای از تولید با نفت و بدون نفت

موضوع رفاه اقتصادی و بهبود آن از مهم‌ترین موضوعات کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و در حال توسعه است و دولت‌ها تمایل دارند تا نشان دهند متعهد به ایجاد رفاه برای مردم هستند. بنابراین، انتخاب‌ها و تصمیماتی که سیاست‌گذاران اعمال و اجرا می‌کنند، قطعاً بر سطح کیفیت زندگی این نسل و نسل‌های آینده اثرگذار است. از سویی در سال‌های اخیر شاهد نزول جایگاه ایران در رتبه‌بندی‌های مختلف رفاهی که صورت می‌گیرد بوده‌ایم. بنابراین، با توجه به چنین اهمیتی، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی نقش رونق و رکود بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران در بازه‌ی زمانی 1350 تا 1400 و در دو سناریوی با نفت و بدون نفت می‌باشد. با توجه به امکان وجود اثر نامتقارن تولید بر رفاه، در پژوهش حاضر از رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی استفاده شده است. نتایج بررسی، وجود رابطه‌ی مستقیم میان رونق و رکود با رفاه اقتصادی را تایید کرده، به‌طوری‌که افزایش در تولید (رونق) موجب افزایش در رفاه و کاهش در تولید (رکود) موجب کاهش در رفاه می‌گردد. نتیجه‌ی دیگر حاکی از وجود نامتقارنی در اندازه اثرگذاری رونق و رکود بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران می‌باشد. در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تاثیر نامطلوب رکود بر رفاه بیشتر از اثرگذاری مطلوب رونق بر رفاه بوده و اندازه‌ی این اثرگذاری برای اقتصاد غیرنفتی نسبت به اقتصاد نفتی دوچندان است. همچنین، این نامتقارنی در بلندمدت تشدید می‌شود. طبق دیگر نتایج حاصله، تورم و بیکاری در هر دو سناریوی اقتصاد نفتی و بدون نفت اثر معکوس بر رفاه اقتصادی داشته‌اند.

analysis of the role of prosperity and recession on welfare in iran: compared to oil and non - oil production

purpose: the topic of welfare and its improvement is an important issue in different societies. according to the existing literature, there are multiple factors that affect the welfare status of countries, one of which is production and its fluctuations (boom and recession). considering the important impacts of production on the economic welfare of the country, the present study aims to explain the impact of production and, more precisely, that of increases (economic boom) and decreases (economic recession) in production on welfare in iran. indeed, this analysis deals with production with and without oil. the main question in the present study is whether there is a significant difference between the impacts of economic boom (increases in production with or without oil) and economic recession (decreases in production with or without oil) on welfare in the iranian economy.methodology: most of the models in econometrics are based on linear (symmetric) models. in a symmetric estimate of the production effects (with or without oil), if economic welfare increases by 1 unit with an increase in production, then economic welfare will decrease by 1 unit with a decrease in production. however, what actually happens may not be this way, and the effect of increases in production (economic prosperity) on welfare may be different from the effect of decreases in production (recession). therefore, the focus of a research model is to distinguish the effect of increases in production (with or without oil) from the effect of decreases in it. the model used in this study is based on the one proposed by shin et al. (2014). that study discusses the issue of the asymmetrical coefficient of an influential factor and its effect on the dependent variable in the conditions of prosperity and recession. shin’s team introduces a model called nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (nardl) regression model. in the present study, among the various welfare indices, the iewb index has been considered as a measure of economic welfare. multiple variables are also used to calculate this index. the iewb index considers economic welfare as a function of the dimensions of effective per capita consumption flow, net social accumulation of wealth and resource-generating sources, economic inequality, and insecurity. in this regard, weights are considered for each of these dimensions in a special way. therefore, the weights assigned to each dimension will be different based on different observations. the spatial scope of this study includes iran, and the temporal scope is from 1971 to 2021.findings and discussion: the movement trend is an indicator of economic well-being, showing that the index followed a downward trend after the revolution until the end of the war. after the war, the index had an upward trend with a gentler slope compared to the years before the revolution. it reached its highest level in 2017 and then started to decline again. this decrease is due to the increase in the sanctions on the iranian economy, which led to a decrease in oil revenues, a decrease in economic growth, and an increase in the inflation rate, resulting in a decline in economic well-being. the results of the estimate are as follows:- in the short term, the effect of oil economic prosperity on well-being is almost more than 2.5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.- in the short term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is greater than the effect of economic recession without oil.- in the short term, the asymmetry in the impact of economic prosperity and recession (both with and without oil) on well-being is confirmed.- in the long term, considering the direct effect of economic prosperity and recession (with and without oil) on well-being, the asymmetry of production effect (with and without oil) is also confirmed. but, unlike the case in the short term, in the long term, the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is greater than the effect of oil economic recession.- in the long term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is more than twice the effect of oil economic prosperity, and the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is almost 5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.conclusions and policy implications: based on the results of this research about the impact of economic prosperity and recession on the well-being in iran, it is suggested that, first, the government should create the necessary infrastructure to improve the people’s well-being so that the prosperity periods can be prolonged. second, economic policymakers should adopt supportive policies, especially for producers, to improve the country’s well-being during recessions. third, it seems that, if the iranian economy moves towards non-oil dependence, in times of economic recession, there will be a need for stronger welfare policies by the government to compensate for the lost well-being. if there is more extensive support for non-oil sectors, they may be able to contribute to increased well-being during prosperous times.