اثر محرک مالی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران: کاربردی از مدل‎ داده- ستانده نیمه بسته

اهمیت مصارف خانوار در ایجاد تقاضا برای محصولات داخلی سبب می‏شود تا عوامل موثر بر آن در برقراری محرک‏های مالی مورد توجه قرار گیرد. تا کنون درمطالعات صورت گرفته، جهت بررسی اثر محرک‎مالی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بصورت بخشی از مدل های داده- ستانده بسته استفاده شده است، که نتایج حاصل از این مدل ها به‎ علت وجود مصرف برون‎زا در درون ماتریس مبالات واسطه ای دارای تورش می‎باشد. برای حل این مشکل، در پژوهش حاضر از مدل داده- ستانده نیمه بسته با مصرف نیمه درون‎زا که اولین بار توسط چن و همکاران در سال 2016 معرفی شد، استفاده شده است، که در این مدل به علت حذف اثرات کاذب ناشی از انتقال مصرف برون‎زا به طبقه تقاضای نهایی، نتایج واقعی تری از اعمال محرک مالی از سوی دولت بدست می آید. برای این منظور مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از جدول داده- ستانده سال 1395، به مقایسه نتایج حاصل از بررسی اثر محرک مالی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران با استفاده از دو مدل بسته و مدل نیمه بسته می‏پردازد. در ابتدا نتایج تحقیق نشان می‏دهدکه با افزایش 10 درصدی در مخارج دولتی به عنوان محرک مالی، در بخش زراعت و باغداری و بخش واحدهای مسکونی شخصی، ارزش افزوده بیشتری ایجاد شده زیرا این دو بخش دارای ضریب مصرف درون‎زای بزرگتری نسبت به سایر بخش ها هستند و از سوی دیگر، ضرایب ارزش افزوده به دست آمده از مدل داده- ستانده نیمه بسته نسبت مدل داده- ستانده بسته، کوچکتر و تورش موجود در نتایج مدل بسته را مرتفع می‎سازد .

evaluating the effect of fiscal stimulus on iran’sgdp with a semi-closed input-output model

purpose: the importance of household expenses in creating demand for domestic products causes the factors affecting it to be considered in establishing financial incentives. the studies conducted so far have investigated the effect of financial stimulus on macroeconomic variables partly with closed input-output models. however, like keynes’ consumption theory, this model considers household consumption as a function of current income only. since it overestimates the relationship between the household sector and the production sector, the results of this model are distorted due to the presence of exogenous consumption within the matrix of intermediate goods.methodology: to solve this problem, the current research uses a semi-closed input-output model with semi-endogenous consumption, which was first introduced by chen et al. (2016). this model adapts the output to other theories of consumption. also, due to the removal of false effects caused by the transfer of exogenous consumption to the final demand class, more realistic results are obtained from the government’s fiscal stimulus. for this purpose, the present study compares the effects of fiscal stimulus on iran’s gross domestic product in two closed models and a semi-closed model using the input-output table issued by the central bank of iran in 2015.findings and discussion: the results of this research show that, with a 10% increase in government spending as a financial stimulus, more value added has been created in the agriculture and horticulture sectors and the private residential unit sector. this is because these two sectors have a larger endogenous consumption coefficient than other sectors. it states that the larger or smaller endogenous consumption coefficient is of effect on the intensity of government investment or the increase in government spending affects the value added and the production level. moreover, the value-added coefficients obtained from the semi-closed input-output model are smaller than those obtained from the closed input-output model, and they eliminate the distortion in the results of the closed model and increase the accuracy of the calculation results.conclusions and policy implications: to consider the relationship between the household sector and the production sector, a closed input-output model is usually used, but, due to not considering all the factors affecting household consumption, this model cannot calculate the results of policy making. it is because the model overestimates the difference between the household sector and the production sector. to solve this problem, a semi-closed input-output model with semi-endogenous consumption was introduced by chen’s team. their model considers all the factors affecting household consumption, hence used for iranian data in the present study. in this model, due to the calculation of the coefficient of endogenous consumption, the key sectors are specified, and then, due to the elimination of false effects caused by the transfer of exogenous consumption to the final demand class, more realistic results are obtained from predicting the effect of policy on production or other macroeconomic variables.