کاربردی از رهیافت آسیب‌شناسی رشد در ایران: درخت تصمیم‌گیری hrv

رهیافت آسیب‏شناسی رشد، چارچوبی برای شناسایی کلیدی‏ترین موانع رشد اقتصادی «خاص هر کشور» است. این رهیافت با وجود منطبق بودن بر منطق مدل‏های رشد درون‏زا، بر خلاف این مدل‏ها، مجموعۀ ثابتی از عوامل تعیین‏کنندۀ رشد را برای همۀ کشورها مفروض نمی‌داند. به جای آن، همۀ عوامل بالقوۀ موثر بر رشد، از جمله عوامل اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی، را در قالب یک فهرست طولانی درج می‌کند و با استفاده از یک درخت تصمیم‏گیری، تعداد محدود و مشخصی از عوامل کلیدی را شناسایی می‏کند. این چارچوب ضمن انعطاف‏پذیری بیش‏تر نسبت به چارچوب‏های رقیب، اصول و روش‏شناسی علم اقتصاد را هم نقض نمی‏کند. فرآیند درخت تصمیم‏گیری با این پرسش آغاز می‏شود که: چه عاملی علت سطح پایین سرمایه‏گذاری خصوصی و کارآفرینی در کشور است؟ در پاسخ این پرسش که می‏تواند «پایین بودن بازدهی اجتماعی سرمایه‏گذاری» و یا «بالا بودن هزینۀ تامین مالی» باشد، هر یک از این دو مسیر به شاخه‏های باریک‏تری شکسته می‏شوند. در این مقاله با به­کارگیری رهیافت آسیب‏شناسی رشد و درخت تصمیم‌گیری hrv، چند عامل به عنوان موانع تعییین‌کننده رشد اقتصادی ایران شناسایی شدند: کیفیت سرمایۀ انسانی، کیفیت زیرساختارها، ریسک‌های خرد و ریسک‌های کلان که هر دو به سیاست‌های مدیریت اقتصادی کشور، از جمله شاخص‌ها و سیاست‌های حکمرانی خوب بازمی‌گردند. در شاخۀ مالی، سرکوب مالی و تبعیض‏های بخشی مهم‌ترین عامل عدم توسعۀ مالی متوازن برای شتاب بخشیدن به رشد اقتصادی شده است. مجموعۀ این تعیین‌کننده‌ها، در فقدان یک گرایش و اندیشۀ صحیح و روشن در سیاست‌گذاری رشد و توسعه اقتصادی و یادگیری در سطح مدیریت کلان و سیاست‏گذاری شکل گرفته است.

application of the growth diagnostics approach in iran: hrv decision tree

introduction: in spite of the fact that iran’s socio-economic development plans and other effective documents emphasize achieving high, stable and sustainable economic growth rates, the average real gdp growth in the last four decades has been less than 1.3 percent. this low growth rate, along with its severe fluctuations, shows that the development plans and policies administrated by the government were not successful in achieving such economic growth rates. so, they seriously require comprehensive review and reforms. during a given period, many countries on the same level as iran in terms of per capita income have experienced significant economic growth and have been able to bring the level of per capita income (and, as a result, economic welfare of the people) very close to the pioneer countries in development. but iran’s per capita income still has a &big gap& despite its high and sometimes unique capacities in geographical, civilizational, cultural and economic diversities.  therefore, it is needed to identify and explain the causes of the stunted growth of iran’s economy and, accordingly, to propose solutions to accelerate economic growth and convergence of per capita income and catch up with developed countries. for this purpose, a growth diagnostic approach leads to a defensible and systematic common understanding of the main causes of iran’s low economic growth.methodology: the growth diagnostics approach which was first proposed by hausmann et al. (2005), is a framework for identifying the most important specific obstacles to the economic growth of a country. this approach is consistent with the logic of endogenous growth models but, unlike these models, it does not assume a fixed set of growth determinants for all countries. instead, it lists all the potential factors, including economic and non-economic, that affect growth in a long list. this approach then makes a decision tree to identify a limited number of key factors. in addition to being more flexible than competing frameworks, this framework does not violate the principles and methodology of economics. the decision tree process begins with this question ‘what is the cause of the low level of private investment and entrepreneurship in the country?’ in response to this question, which can be &the low social efficiency of investment& or &the high cost of financing&, each of these two paths is broken into narrower branches and, finally, it identifies the causes of low economic growth. the main function of growth diagnostics approach is to identify the causes of low economic growth in a country. in this research, however, we applied the hrv decision tree, which is because we believe this tree can lead us to the most important problems in the iranian economic growth.results and discussion: according to the hrv (2005), we classified our findings for the final causes of low economic growth of iran into seven categories as reported in the table below. causes of the lag in iran’s economic growthnocategoriescausespolicy implications1environment• drastic increase in pollution and destruction of the environment• continuous reduction of biological capacityü  environmental protection2human capital• high migration of human capital from the country• little arrival of immigrants with high human capital• low-quality education system• inappropriate access to the internet in schools• inadequate development of employee training• low-quality management schoolsü  improve the quality of education and skills developmentü  wage based growth3infrastructures• roads quality• quality of electricity supply• ports quality• aviation qualityü  improve public-private partnershipsü  improve social capital4micro risks• weakness in property rights• low government efficiency• heavy burden of government regulations• inadequate protection of the interests of small shareholders• weak support for investors• lack of transparencyü  good governance5macro risks• deficit of the government’s operating balance• high government debts• high and fluctuating inflation ratesü  good governance6externalities of information and coordination• weakness of competition in the domestic market• limited market dominance• expensive and time-consuming customs procedures• high trade tariffs• severe non-tariff barriers• low capacity for talents saving• low capacity for talents attraction• the negative effect of taxation on labour incentivesü  market-oriented policiesü  trade liberalization7financial intermediation• poor financial access• poor life insurance• poor international financing• severe financial repression• arbitrary sectoral discrimination without plansü  balanced financial development conclusion: in this article, applying growth diagnostics approach and hrv decision tree, several factors were identified as the obstacles to iran’s economic growth. they include the quality of human capital, the quality of infrastructures, and micro and macro risks both of which refer to the economic management policies of the country, namely good governance indicators and policies. in the financial sector, financial repression and arbitrary sectoral discriminations are the most important factors in the lack of balanced financial development to accelerate economic growth. this set of determinants has been formed under the severe lack of a correct and clear trend in policy making for economic growth and development.