تثبیت‌کنندگی خودکار سیاست‌های مالی و چرخه‌های اقتصادی ایران

با توجه به نوسانات شدید اقتصادی ایران در سال‌های متمادی، نیاز به ابزارهایی برای تثبیت مسیر اقتصادی کشور بیش از همیشه احساس می‌شود. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی اثر تثبیت‌کنندگی خودکار سیاست‌های مالی، به‌ خصوص سیاست‌های مالیاتی بر چرخه‌های اقتصادی ایران است. در این پژوهش داده‌های فصلی بهار 1372 الی پاییز 1397 استفاده شده است. چرخه با استفاده از فیلتر هودریک پرسکات استخراج شده و مدل اقتصادسنجی مورد استفاده در این پژوهش svar است. نتایج نشان داده‌ است، اثرگذاری تثبیتی سیاست‌های مالی به‌خصوص مالیات‌ها به دلیل سهم اندک آن نسبت به gdp، بر چرخه اقتصادی کم بوده، ولی با استفاده از تجزیه تاریخی در نقش تحلیل ضد واقعیت، نشان داده شده که سیاست‌های مالی، به‌خصوص مالیات‌های مستقیم اثرات ضد چرخه‌ای قابل‌ توجهی داشته‌اند. در نهایت مالیات‌های مستقیم به عنوان متغیر کلیدی سیاست‌های مالی تثبیت‌کننده خودکار در نظر گرفته شده و پیشنهاد می‌شود، سیاست‌گذاران در توجه به این نوع مالیات‌ها اهتمام بیشتری داشته باشند.

automatic stabilization of fiscal policies and iran’s economic cycles

introduction: the economy of a country undergoes many fluctuations over time. due to dependence on oil revenues, war, embargo and other economic and political tensions, iran’s economy has been fluctuating greatly and experiencing many periods of prosperity and recession in the last thirty years. one of the duties defined for governments in public finance is economic stabilization. economic stabilization makes the path of economic growth smoother. the smoothing of the growth path also makes the economic environment more attractive for investment and production. governments have different instrument for economic stabilization. these instruments affect the supply and demand system. one of the policies that affects the demand side of the economy is the financial policies. these policies are divided into two categories: discretionary and non-discretionary. discretionary financial policies were criticized by economists such as friedman. critics state that discretionary policies do not have the appropriate speed to stabilize the economic fluctuations. automatic stabilizers, however, are not discretionary policies and can respond appropriately to criticism. the purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of the automatic stabilization of financial policies, especially tax policies, on iran’s business cycles.methodology: the data collection of this research was done through library work. the data were collected from the central bank of the islamic republic of iran and the national statistics center. the data were seasonal, ranging from the spring of 1993 to the autumn of 2018. the business cycle of iran’s economy was extracted using the hodrick-prescott filter. according to the studies conducted, the ʎ of the extraction filter was 677. the unit root was calculated using the kpss test. all the variables at this level were stationary. by estimating a svar model, we tried to check the dynamic relationships among the variables. the tools that were used in structural vector autoregressive models were impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition. the counterfactual analysis was based on historical decomposition.results and discussion: the svar model was formulated with the impulse response functions for twenty periods. according to the results, the effect of the government expenditure shock on the business cycle is low, but it shows up positive. the effect of the indirect tax shock on the cycle of gdp is very small and negligible. the effect of the direct tax shock on the business cycle is estimated counter-cyclically and found to be of a low effect.the results of the variance decomposition show that, in the first period, more than 92% of the change in the business cycle is explained by itself, 5% by the government expenditure shock, 1% by the direct taxes shock, and very small amounts by the indirect taxes shock. after 20 periods, the contribution of the business cycle in explaining its own changes decreases by less than 5%. most of this share is added to the share of the government expenditure shock, raising it to 9.27% to explain the changes in the business cycle. after twenty periods, direct and indirect taxes are only equal to 2 and 1%, respectively, and they serve as the cause of changes in the production cycle.historical decomposition shows that in the period from 1993 to 2018, direct taxes had a small contribution to the business cycles of iran’s economy, but there were countercyclical effects on the business cycle different years. these effects can be seen during both boom and recession. indirect taxes have had counter-cyclical effects only in a few years, which have only been anti-prosperity. historical decomposition shows that government spending has been able to exert anti-cyclical effects in some cases, though negligible.conclusion: