بررسی تاثیر ساختار بازار نفت خام دوبی و عمان بر روی نفت خام ایران در بازار آسیا

هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی لایه‌های مالی بازار نفت دوبی شاخص بازار آسیا بر روی قیمت نفت خام‌های عمان و ایران است. در این راستا با استفاده از روش گارچ چند متغیره و داده‌های سری زمانی روزانه سال 19-2010 به بررسی تاثیر ساختار مالی بازار نفت آسیا بر روی قیمت نفت ایران پرداخته‌شده است؛ بورس‌های نفتی و عوامل تاثیرگذار بر ساختار مالی بازار نفت (کانتانگو و بکواردیشن) تاثیر چشم‌گیری بر قیمت نفت خام‌های شاخص و سایر نفت خام‌های بازار نظیر ایران دارند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که رابطه منفی بین تاثیرات بازار سرمایه و قیمت نفت خام وجود دارد. کانتانگو بودن بازار و همین‌طور قیمت نفت خام‌های شاخص در تعیین قیمت نفت خام ایران تاثیرگذار است و رابطه منفی بین این متغیرها و قیمت نفت خام وجود دارد. علاوه بر تمامی موارد یادشده در تخمین‌ها به بررسی مواد دیگری ازجمله کیفیت نفت خام، موقعیت خرید و قیمت آتی‌های نفت خام شاخص برنت در و تاثیرات آن‌ها پرداخته شد که نتایج برآورد تخمین معادلات تاثیر مثبت این عوامل را بر تعیین قیمت نفت خام ایران نشان داده است.

investigation of the impact of dubai and oman crude oil market structure on iranian crude oil in the asian market

1- introductionfinancial markets and oil exchanges and their expectations play a major role in understanding oil price changes. to analyze and understand how crude oil prices change, it is important to pay attention to these markets. in iran, the international deputy of national oil company determines the price of iranian oil by using different pricing methods and mechanisms. one of the factors they use for pricing is the price of oil in the fob persian gulf region, including the oil price of dubai and oman oil exchanges.the current pricing models of iran’s crude oil prices in the east asian market have not yet taken into account the role of stock exchanges and capital markets in price calculations. current method of determination of the price of iranian crude oil in asia, it uses the price of index oil in the physical market and the price of index oil in the stock market of that region. this article examines the impact of the financial layers of the dubai crude oil market on the price of iranian crude oil and the extent to which the behavior of the price of iranian crude oil in the asian market affects the financial markets of asia such as the dubai stock exchange.2- theoretical frameworkthe asian oil market is one of the largest markets in the world and the largest oil customers such as china, india, etc. are located in this region. also, this market is one of the largest customers even in the condition of iran’s oil embargo, so investigating various financial factors and market structure of competitive and leading crude oil in the asian market is one of the important issues in maintaining the country’s oil market. if the country’s oil price formula is developed based on the oil considerations of other competitors, it will have the characteristic of being competitive with other producers in this region. on the other hand, maintaining the market share in the asian market depends on the price formula that takes into account the most considerations of the capital market (stocks in this region) along with the fluctuations in the price of crude oil indicators in this market.3- methodologyin this research, the multivariate garch method and daily time series data of 2010-2019 are used to investigate the impact of the financial structure of the asian oil market on the price of iranian oil.