تاثیر عوارض شهرسازی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در مسکن

شهرداری‌ها در ایران وابستگی بالایی به درآمدهای حاصل از بخش مسکن و شهرسازی دارند و شهرداری تهران نیز از این قاعده مستثنی نیست. ازاین‌رو، تامین منابع درآمدی لازم برای اداره شهر، به‌ویژه در شرایط رکود بخش مسکن، از مهم‌ترین موضوعات پیش روی شهرداری‌ها است. در شرایط رکود، شهرداری تهران همواره سعی کرده تا با تخفیفاتی در عوارض شهرسازی، منابع درآمدی موردنیاز خود را تامین نماید. هدف این مقاله، بررسی اثر عوارض شهرسازی بر سرمایه‌گذاری در مسکن شهر تهران است. برای انجام این کار، از داده‌ سال‌های 1400-1380 و روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی استفاده شده است. نتایج مدل در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد که عوارض شهرسازی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در مسکن شهر تهران تاثیر معنی‌داری ندارد؛ بنابراین اعمال تخفیفات در عوارض مذکور شاید در کوتاه‌مدت باعث تامین منابع درآمدی لازم برای شهرداری تهران گردد، اما در بلندمدت تاثیری نخواهد داشت. همچنین مدل بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در مسکن تهران تحت تاثیر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی مانند تولید ناخالص داخلی و نقدینگی است و همچنین بازدهی دارایی‌های رقیبی مانند سکه طلا است.

the impact of urban development taxes on private sector investment in housing;a case study of tehran city

1- introduction today, the issue of providing financial resources is important for municipalities all over the world, including iran. these sources of income are influenced by macroeconomic conditions. this means that, in the economic recession, they decrease and city managers can not fulfill their duties. the financing methods required by municipalities in all parts of the world are direct sale of services, local taxes, use of government aid and issuance of bonds. but, the importance of these sources of revenue is different for big and even small cities in iran. that is, the share of these resources from the total revenue of municipalities in a city like tehran is low, and about 60-70% of the revenue sources of municipalities are related to housing.this dependence of the income of municipalities on their housing sector has become a serious challenge, because in times of recession in the housing sector, the income of municipalities decreases. therefore, during the past decades, tehran municipality provides a discount for urban development fees during the recession. now, the basic question of this study is that the urbaning permit fee have an effect on the private sector’s investment in housing in tehran. 2- theoretical framework the theoretical analysis of investment in the housing sector is based on conventional investment theories in macroeconomics. two important investment theories are discussed: the theory of the principle of acceleration (which itself is divided into two models of fixed acceleration and flexible acceleration model) related to the classics and the final efficiency theory of investment related to john maynard keynes. acceleration pattern theory is based on the concept that changes in sales or income cause an increase in total investment. but keynes believed that the amount of investment depends on the final efficiency of capital and interest rate. the relationship between investment and capital efficiency and interest rate is inverse. both theories are used in this study. 3- methodology in this study, an attempt is made to investigate the impact of urban development complications (permit issuance complications) on private sector investment in tehran city housing. to do this, the auto regressive distributed lag (ardl) was used, and the data obtained from the central bank of the islamic republic of iran and the statistics of the tehran municipality for the years 2010-2018. in this model, the dependent variable is influenced by the lag of the dependent variable itself and other independent variables. it should be noted that in order to investigate the long-term and short-term relationships between the dependent variable and other explanatory variables, collective methods such as the engel-granger method and ecm error correction models have been used.