تاثیر دستمزد و تورم بر بهره‌وری نیروی کار در کشورهای منتخب درحال‌ توسعه

هدف پژوهش حاضر، تعیین تاثیر دستمزد و تورم بر بهرهوری نیروی کار با استفاده از تکنیک اقتصادسنجی مارکوف سوئیچینگ در 15 کشور منتخب درحال‌توسعه طی بازه زمانی 2006 الی 2017 است. در این مقاله شاخص‌های سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، سرمایه انسانی، فضای کسب‌وکار، کنترل فساد و آزادسازی تجاری به‌عنوان متغیرهای کنترل در مدل لحاظ شدند. نتایج برآوردها حاکی از تاثیر منفی تورم و تاثیر مثبت دستمزد بر بهره وری نیروی کار در هر دو رژیم (رونق و رکود) است. در ارتباط با متغیرهای کنترل نیز، متغیرهای سرمایه انسانی، آزادسازی تجاری و فضای کسب‌وکار در هر دو رژیم (رونق و رکود) دارای تاثیر مثبتی بر بهره وری نیروی کار هستند. ولی در مورد سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و کنترل فساد، در رژیم اول (رونق) شاهد رابطه مثبت و در رژیم دوم (رکود) شاهد رابطه منفی هستیم. همچنین جهت مطالعه دقیق‌تر، به بررسی رابطه علی تورم و دستمزد با بهره‌وری نیروی کار با روش گرنجر پرداخته شد که نتایج مبین رابطه علیت دوسویه بین متغیرهای موردبررسی است.

the effect of wages and inflation on the labor productivity in selected developing countries

1- introduction in today’s competitive world, productivity as a philosophy and a vision based on the strategy of improving operations is the most important goal of leading organizations and is a necessity for economic growth and improving the living and welfare of a country. the amount and rate of productivity growth in each country has a significant impact on the trend of macroeconomic variables at the global level. many factors affect productivity, among which, the role of wages and inflation can be very important.2- theoretical framework in the inflationary state, a misunderstanding is created in relation to the levels of relative prices in societies; therefore, in such a situation, an atmosphere of uncertainty dominates the economy of countries and production costs increase due to inflation, and this can affect the wages paid by the employer to the workforce. as a result of the increase in prices and the disproportion of salary increase with inflation, the real income of the labor force decreases and the labor force cannot cover all its expenses. therefore, in an inflationary state, we will witness things such as a decrease in the health of the workforce, a decrease in the level of education of the workforce, a decrease in the motivation of the workforce, and the creation of a class gap; therefore, labor productivity can gradually decrease.3- methodology the aim of this study is to determine the effect of wages and inflation on labor productivity by using markov switching econometric technique in 15 selected developing countries (iran, brazil, egypt, indonesia, jordan, mauritius, mongolia, philippines, thailand, colombia, india, kazakhstan, mexico, peru and south africa) during the period 2006 to 2017. in this paper, the indicators of foreign direct investment, human capital, business environment, corruption control, and trade liberalization were considered as control variables in the model.markov switching econometric technique was used to estimate the effects of variables. also, for more detailed investigations, the causal relationship between inflation and wages and labor productivity was investigated by using the granger method.4- results discussion the results of the estimations indicated the negative effect of inflation on labor productivity in both regimes (boom and recession). this result was consistent with the results of most domestic and foreign studies, but it is somewhat contradictory to aiheanacho’s (2017) study. the impact of wages on labor productivity was positive in both regimes (boom and recession), which indicates the confirmation of efficiency wage theories. in connection with control variables, human capital variables, trade liberalization and business climate had a positive effect on labor productivity in both the first and second regimes. in confirming the positive relationship of the business environment on productivity, it can be acknowledged that the business environment is a political, institutional and behavioral environment that affects the efficiency and risks associated with economic activities and investment. it provides the basis for more production, so production per worker also increases, which means increased labor productivity.