بررسی آثار سیاست‌های پولی مقابله با تورم بر امنیت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران

ناامنی اقتصادی به مفهوم وجود ریسک های محدودکننده رشد اقتصادی است که تا حد زیادی متاثر از سیاست های اقتصادی کشور است. از طرفی برنامه‎های مقابله با تورم، یکی از مهم‌ترین موضوعات در ادبیات اقتصاد پولی است. این پژوهش به بررسی تغییرات رشد اقتصادی و همچنین شاخص امنیت اقتصادی در ایران می پردازد. از طریق مدل سازی اعمال یک سیاست انقباضی پولی برای دوره 1400-1367 با استفاده از الگوی خود بازگشت برداری ساختاری (svar)، نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان می‌دهد که تکانه انقباضی وارده بر رشد حجم نقدینگی کشور، واکنش منفی رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه را در کوتاه مدت به دنبال دارد؛ اما در بلندمدت و به‌تدریج با کاهش تورم، آثار اولیۀ آن تعدیل شده و رشد اقتصادی کشور بهبود می یابد. بر این اساس نسبت فداکاری تولید (مقدار تولید از دست رفته به ازای 1 درصد کاهش در تورم) محاسبه شده برابر 3.52- به دست می آید. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، منفی بودن نسبت محاسبه شده، به این معنی است که در اقتصاد ایران، اعمال سیاست پولی جهت دستیابی به یک روند تورمی پایین تر، دارای وقفۀ اثرگذاری طولانی (حدود پنج سال) است و طی این سال ها نه تنها تولید، کاهش اولیه خود را در طول زمان جبران می کند، بلکه به میزان 3.52 درصد افزایش نیز می یابد. همچنین در بررسی رابطۀ شاخص امنیت اقتصادی با تکانۀ منفی سیاست پولی، مشاهده می‌شود واکنشی منفی در کوتاه مدت دارد که بیشتر به خاطر آثار مستقیم کاهش رشد تولید و همچنین آثار معکوس رشد سطح عمومی قیمت ها بر شاخص امنیت اقتصادی است. در بلندمدت کاهش تدریجی تورم منجر به ارتقای شاخص امنیت اقتصادی می شود.

investigation the effects of disinflation monetary policies on economic security and growth in iran

1- introduction   economic insecurity means the existence of risks limiting economic growth. on the other hand, considering that economic insecurity has important effects on consumption decisions, savings and labor market balance, it can be said that economic security is an important part of economic well-being, which is largely affected by the country’s economic policies. policies and programs to deal with inflation and especially the effect of monetary policies on the nominal and real variables of the economy is one of the most important topics in the literature of monetary economics. price stability is considered as the main goal of monetary policy in almost all countries. in order to achieve low and stable inflation, effective and efficient tools should be used in monetary policy affairs. of course, the correct understanding of the concept of inflation and the factors affecting is considered essential to achieve price stability. economists believe that the costs that inflation imposes on society can be much more serious than the costs of slowing down economic growth. instability resulting from inflation not only damages the credibility of macroeconomic policymakers, especially the central bank, but its continuation can also cause acute cases of political instability in countries. in this regard, demand management policies and especially monetary policies are one of the important tools to achieve these goals. monetary policies are without a doubt the most direct influencing and determining factor of inflation, and by using and correctly guiding monetary policies, one can achieve stable economic growth while achieving low and stable inflation. trade-off between inflation and unemployment has always been the concern of economists and basic theories such as the phillips curve have been proposed in this regard. economists have generalized the aforementioned trade-off and used economic growth instead of unemployment and put forward a concept called the sacrifice ratio. sacrifice ratio shows the amount of lost production per 1% reduction in inflation, and along with the phillips curve, it has always been very important in the direction of government and central bank policies, especially contractionary policies.2- theoretical framework   based on this, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of inflation-fighting monetary policies on economic growth and security in iran. as a result of the study, the costs of a deflationary policy are also measured in terms of lost production during the years (1998-2021). for this purpose, after examination the theoretical foundations of the research in relation to the concept and indicators of economic security, the benefits and harms of inflation on the risks that reduce economic growth and security, and the effects of policies to deal with inflation, a review of the background studies of the studied subject are carried out.3- methodology   this research examines changes in economic growth and economic security index in iran. through modeling the application of a contractionary monetary policy for the period of 1988-2021 by using the structural autoregression model (svar).