شناسایی فعالیت‌های صنعتی متمرکز دارای مزیت نسبی صادرات و تعیین بازارهای هدف

شناسایی مزیت نسبی فعالیت های اقتصادی در مناطق مختلف هر کشور امکان برنامه ریزی صحیحی را در اختیار برنامه ریزان اقتصادی قرار می دهد. در این راستا استان بوشهر به‌عنوان یک منطقه مستعد به لحاظ دارا بودن پتانسیل های بالقوه و بالفعل در زمینه های مختلف در برخی فعالیت ها ازجمله فعالیت های صنعتی دارای مزیت نسبی است. ازاین‌رو در پژوهش حاضر با بهره مندی ازنظریه های مزیت نسبی و با استفاده از شاخص هایی چون شاخص خوشه، شاخص بالاسا و شاخص تقارن بالاسا فعالیت های صنعتی متمرکز شناسایی و سپس به تعیین فعالیت های دارای مزیت نسبی در صادرات در سال های 1384 الی 1398پرداخته شده است. در ادامه با توجه به اهمیت توسعه صادرات غیر نفتی بر اساس پنج شاخص واردات نسبی، تعداد کشورهای سهیم در واردات، عدم مزیت کشور هدف در تولید محصول، میانگین تعرفه و فاصله کشور هدف تا استان بوشهر با استفاده از روش تاکسونومی عددی مهم‌ترین بازارهای هدف محصول منتخب در آخرین سال آماری 1400 شناسایی شدند. نتایج حاصل شده نشان می دهد استان بوشهر از میان فعالیت های مختلف صنعتی متمرکز در فعالیت تولید مواد شیمیایی و فراورده های شیمیایی دارای مزیت نسبی در صادرات است. همچنین نتایج تعیین اولویت بازارهای هدف در محصول مذکور  نشان داد کشورهای ترکمنستان، تاجیکستان، قرقیزستان و قطر به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین کشورهای هدف محصولات شیمیایی استان بوشهر به ترتیب دارای اولویت اول تا چهارم هستند.

identification concentrated industrial activities with comparative advantage export and determination of target markets

1- introduction  the expansion of trade among countries in recent years is one of the main reasons for economic growth. in order to achieve export development, it is necessary to use a principled and modern method to identify, determine and prioritize export target markets. in this regard, bushehr province in the economic field (production, trade and services) with issues such as growth based on a single product and sector economy, weak technical and specialized knowledge in economic sectors, traditional production methods and lack of investment platforms in the sectors private and public aspect. therefore, in the present research, in order to develop non-oil exports at the regional and national levels, by benefiting from the theories of comparative advantage, the activities with comparative advantage in export in bushehr province are identified.2- theoretical framework    based on different theories in the field of comparative advantage, countries or regions being rich in resources cause countries (regions) to have a potential relative advantage for exporting manufactured goods related to resource abundance. also, the export of goods should be based on the trade costs and market size of the target countries. therefore, according to the proposed theories, the export of goods based on the comparative advantage and the concentration of companies in a geographical area, while enjoying the benefits of forming an industrial cluster, causes the organization of industries and the specialization of activities.3- methodology   in this research, the cluster index method is used to investigate the concentration of industrial activities in the province. due to this issue comparative advantage is one of the key concepts in international trade theory, and also one of the indicators that has been widely used in this field is the balasa revealed comparative advantage index. after identification of the concentrated activities through the balasa index and balasa symmetry, the concentrated industrial activities with relative export advantage are identified and then based on a series of indicators, the target countries of bushehr province are prioritized by using the numerical taxonomy method.4- results discussion in the recent research, by benefiting from the theories of comparative advantage and using indices such as cluster index, balassa index and balassa symmetry index, concentrated industrial activities were identified and then has been determined the activities with comparative advantage in exports in the years 2005 to 2019. in the following, considering the importance of non-oil export development based on five relative import indicators, the number of countries participating in imports, the lack of advantage of the target country in product production, the average tariff and the distance between the target country and bushehr province using the numerical taxonomy method of the most important markets were identified as the target of the selected product in the last statistical year (2021). according to the results obtained in the recent research, the activity of producing chemicals and chemical products has a relative advantage of export. also, based on the final prioritization of the countries based on all the introduced indicators, it was determined that the countries of turkmenistan, tajikistan, kyrgyzstan and qatar are the most important target countries for the chemical products of bushehr province, respectively, they have the first to fourth priority.