تجزیه‌وتحلیل جایگاه صادراتی ایران بر اساس مدل راگمن و شاخص سهم بازار پایدار (cms)

حضور آگاهانه در بازار جهانی بدون تدوین سیاست های مناسب بازرگانی و البته بدون لحاظ مسائل سیاسی و اجتماعی برای بسیاری از کشورهای درحال‌توسعه ازجمله ایران، غیر ممکن است. بر همین اساس در این تحقیق کوشیده شده است تا با توجه به تحریم های بین المللی، جایگاه صادراتی ایران در دو بازار منتخب دارو و فولاد به‌وسیله شاخصی به نام سهم بازار پایدار (cms) در دوره زمانی 2019-2016 ارزیابی شود. برای این منظور با بهره گیری از مدل راگمن و استفاده از روش cms توسعه یافته توسط لیمر و استرن، به ارزیابی عملکرد و رقابت پذیری ایران پرداخته شد. با توجه به این که اثر کالایی، اثر کشوری و اثر رقابتی زیر مجموعه های این شاخص هستند، در این تحقیق، ابتدا سه شاخص مذکور برای دو کالای منتخب محاسبه شده و سپس با استفاده از آن ها، تغییر در خالص صادرات کشور ارزیابی شده است. نتایج این پژوهش دلالت بر آن دارد که اثر رقابتی نسبت به دو اثر دیگر سهم چشمگیری در رشد صادرات دارو و فولاد داشته و لذا تحریم‌های اقتصادی که بیشترین تاثیر را بر رقابت‌پذیری کشورها در تجارت می‌گذارد؛ نقش پررنگی بر صادرات ایران حتی با وجود عدم تحریم کالای دارو داشته است. همچنین در کنار اثر کالایی که نتایج آن خارج از اراده کشور است نتایج حاصل از اثر کشوری بیان می کنند که در سال 2016، کشور آلمان و در سال های 2017 و 2019 کشور روسیه بهترین بازار هدف دارو و همچنین ترکیه بدترین و تایلند بهترین مقصد صادراتی فولاد ایران بوده اند.

iran export position analysis based on rugman model and stable market share index (cms): a case study of medicine and steel industry

1- introduction today, many companies and manufacturers are trying to enter the international market. due to the new conditions of the current markets, it is no possible to enter such markets by trial and error. therefore, considering the importance of this issue, this study tries to examine the effects of sanctions resulting from the barjam and post-barjam agreements on two selected industries that are domestically produced in iran and traded internationally. in other words, if these industries are subject to sanctions, although they are not subject to sanctions, what will be the performance of these industries at the international level. therefore, this study seeks to examine the variability of market share of these industries during sanctions or the absence of sanctions. 2- theoretical framework since the economic activities of each country are not limited to the domestic environment, their competitiveness is not focused on the domestic environment, and each country has trade relations with different countries. one of the important factors for countries to choose trade partners is proximity and geographical proximity, the existence of economic and political relations between the two countries. based on this, ragman proposed a concept model called dual diamond for smaller countries, which was a combination of the internal characteristics of countries and their trading partners. ragman states his model that a country's competitive advantage is due to the internal and external environment of countries, and the outcome of the diamond model factors in these two environments determines the competitiveness of countries. 3- methodology according to the analysis of the effectiveness of two commodities drug and steel trade, one of which is not subject to sanctions and the other has been subject to sanctions, the use of sustainable market share index is more beneficial than other methods of evaluating comparative advantage and competitiveness. according to this index, a country's exports are successful if they can grow at least as much as global imports. this growth can be due to a focus on commodities whose consumption is increasing worldwide (commodity effect) or a focus on target markets whose consumption is growing faster than the global average (national effect) or the internal factors of the exporting country that increase influence and share in target markets (competitive effect). therefore, in order to estimate the above three effects, in this paper, the cms method developed by lamer and stern has been used.