اثرات سرریز فضایی شهرنشینی بر همگرایی اقتصادی استان‌های ایران (در چارچوب همگرایی فضایی بتا)

یکی از محورهای برنامه‌های توسعه اقتصادی در ایران، گرایش از برنامه‌ریزی بخشی به سمت برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای است و هدف این گرایش، تخصیص منابع و فعالیت‌ها به هر نقطه بر مبنای استعدادها و ویژگی‌های خاص آن و کاهش شکاف رشد اقتصادی بین مناطق مختلف کشور است. بر این اساس، مطالعاتی در زمینه شناخت وضع موجود این مناطق، روند آن در آینده و شناسایی عوامل موثر در رشد اقتصادی هر منطقه می‌تواند برای برنامه‌ریزان اقتصادی و منطقه‌ای در تنظیم برنامه‌های توسعه اقتصادی سودمند باشد. هدف این مقاله بررسی اثرات سرریز فضایی شهرنشینی بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌های کشور و همچنین نقش شهرنشینی بر سرعت همگرایی استان‌هاست. برای این منظور، ابتدا همگرایی (بتا) رشد اقتصادی استان‌های ایران در طی سال‌های 2005 تا 2017 با استفاده از مدل پانل فضایی برآورد شده، سپس به نقش شهرنشینی در سرعت همگرایی استان‌ها پرداخته شده است. نتایج به دست آمده در این پژوهش، نشان می‌دهد با توجه به اینکه رشد اقتصادی استان‌های کشور دارای اثرات فضایی و مکانی بوده و رشد هر استان متاثر از استان‌های مجاور نیز است. ازاین‌رو همگرایی فضایی از نوع بتا بین استان‌های کشور تایید می‌شود. همچنین شهرنشینی یکی از متغیرهای موثر بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌ها است و اثر فضایی آن به لحاظ آماری معنی‌دار بوده و باعث افزایش سرعت همگرایی اقتصادی استان‌ها می‌شود.

the spatial spillover effects of urbanization on the convergence of iranian provinces (beta spatial convergence)

1- introduction economic growth in a country is always one of the important goals and achieving this goal requires growth in all areas related to that economy. achieving this goal is possible when the competitiveness of the regions increases and its economic performance improves and economic growth in all economic regions tends to a steady trend and becomes so-called convergent. one of the factors that have been considered in recent years as a factor explaining economic growth is the proximity and spatial position of regions. therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of spatial urban spillover on economic growth of the provinces and also the role of urbanization on the rate of convergence of provinces. 2-theoretical framework one of the important issues in urban economics is how the relationship between urban population growth and economic growth. in this regard, lefebvre (2009) considered the economic structure and economic growth. according to bertinley and black (2004), the channels through which urbanization affects economic growth: first, cities play an important role in the economies and societies of developed and developing countries by providing opportunities for people to benefit from educational, employment and health services in the economic structure of the city. second, urbanization allows businesses to take advantage of economies of scale due to externalities, and this makes it possible for companies to specialize and reduce transaction costs. third, urbanization is a major factor in entrepreneurship. the concentration of population and businesses in cities makes the urban population easily finance their idea and provide the conditions for promoting business ideas and access to local markets with higher consumer density, and ultimately there are spillover effects, these positive external effects of development. cities in neighboring areas are identified through migration and active interaction. therefore, according to these theories, there is no separate region and the growth of each region is affected by the growth of the surrounding regions. thus, despite the effects of urban spillovers, the economic growth of the provinces is converging. in the economic literature, the main idea of ​​convergence is that the lower per capita economy experiences a higher growth rate than the higher per capita economy. 3-methodology econometric researchers believe that due to the impact of economic performance of an area on neighboring areas, if the spatial dependence between observations and these effects are not taken into account, the conventional estimation method will be biased and the effect of factors trying to study them will be erroneous. since the variables used in this study have a spatial aspect and are affected by spatial correlation, and considering that the main purpose of this study is to analyze the role of urbanization in the spatial convergence rate of the provinces, the spatial econometric model is used. consider each other’s observations and the effect of changes in dependent and explanatory variables on neighboring observations. spatial growth models explicitly include spatial factors in growth models. these models pay more attention to spillovers and seek to find the main drivers of long-term growth in space. 4-discussion before estimation of spatial models, to emphasize the need to use spatial patterns in this study, diagnostic tests were performed to estimate the pattern as panel data. as stated in the methodology section, the research model is estimated in three stages. in the first stage, the absolute convergence model is estimated in which there is no urbanization variable. in the second stage, to evaluate the effect of urbanization on convergence and its speed, conditional beta convergence is estimated in terms of urbanization effects, and in the third stage, the space camera model is estimated in terms of urban spatial effects.