بررسی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی کشورهای منتخب منا

تغییرات آب‌وهوایی کره زمین به‌عنوان نتیجه روزافزون کشورها برای دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی بالاتر در دهه های اخیر اثرات زیادی را به دنبال داشته که نمی توان تاثیر آن بر بخش کشاورزی را نادیده گرفت. بخش کشاورزی به لحاظ نقشی که در تامین مواد غذایی مردم دارد، یکی از اصلی ترین بخش های متاثر از تغییر اقلیم است که با تاثیرپذیری از شرایط اقلیمی هر منطقه می تواند بر اقتصاد آن منطقه تاثیر بگذارد. در این میان برخی از مناطق در معرض تغییرات آب‌وهوایی شدیدتری قرار دارند؛ ازجمله منطقه خاورمیانه و کشور ایران که از این مسئله مستثنی نیستند. در این تحقیق به بررسی تاثیر تغییرات آب‌وهوایی بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی کشورهای منطقه منا پرداخته می شود. بدین منظور از داده‌های دما و بارش و ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی 11 کشور منطقه منا برای دوره زمانی 2001-2016 و از مدل هم جمعی با رهیافت حداقل مربعات معمولی اصلاح شده(fmols) و حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا(dols)  استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که یک رابطه بلند مدت هم جمعی میان تغییر اقلیم و ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی وجود دارد. در طول دوره موردبررسی متغیر دما اثر منفی و معنادار و متغیر بارش اثر مثبت و معنادار داشته است؛ به‌نحوی‌که با هر یک درصد افزایش دما و بارش در بلندمدت ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی در مدل (fmols) به ترتیب به میزان 0.28، 0.03 درصد و در مدل (dols) به میزان 0.09، 0.02 درصد تغییر می یابد.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Value-Added Agriculture in the MENA Region

1 IntroductionClimate change on planet earth as a result of growing economies in recent decades has had many effects that could not be ignored agricultural wise. The agriculture sector is one of the main sectors influenced by climate change because of its role in providing nutrition, which in turn effects the economy of region. Some regions, including the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA), are exposed to more severe climate change. Therefore, in this research, the effects of climate change on valueadded agriculture in the MENA region countries are investigated.2Theoretical frameworkIn present theoretical and empirical evidence, several potential approaches have been proposed for the effects of climate change on economic growth. First, destruction of nature and ecosystems, storms, floods, drought, deaths, and extinction of endangered species resulting from extreme weather events cause serious damage to economic growth. On the other hand, resources required to counter the damaging effects of global warming reduce availability of resources needed to invest in physical infrastructures, R D, and human capital. As a result, economic growth will shrink (Dell et al. 2012; Abidoye et.al 2015). Theoretically, the relationship between climate change and economic growth could be mentioned through both macroeconomic and microeconomic perspectives. From the macroeconomic perspective, this relationship affects the level of output, including agricultural yield and economic potential to increase growth by its impact on investments and institutional status. From the microeconomic perspective, this relationship includes an array of factors like cognitive and physical labor productivity, conflict, and health, all of which have wide economic implications (IPCC 2007; Abidoye et.al 2015). Specifically, the important classical ideas related to economic development are presented in studies of economists such as Marshall (1890) and Huntington (1915) who relate productivity to temperature (Dell et al. 2012).3 MethodologyThe purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on valueadded agriculture in the MENA region countries. Thus, temperature and precipitation data and valueadded agriculture of 11 MENA countries during 20012016 was used here. This study employed Panel Data cointegration Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) models. Also, The Pedroni, Kao, and Westerlund cointegration tests confirmed existence of a longrun equilibrium relationship.4 DiscussionThe results indicate existence of a cointegrated longterm relationship between climate change and valueadded agriculture. The valueadded agriculture elasticity to climate change, gross fixed capital formation, employment and CO2 emission intensity are consistent with theoretical and empirical research types. Moreover, comparing the elasticity in both applied approaches shows that temperature changes had a negative and significant effect, and precipitation changes positively and significantly impacted the valueadded agriculture variable. It implies that with a one percent increase in temperature and precipitation over the long term, valueadded agriculture is changed in the FMOLS model at a rate of 0.28, 0.03 percent, and in the DOLS model 0.09, 0.02 percent,  respectively.5 Conclusion and SuggestionsOne of the important and obvious consequences of climate change in agriculture is its impact on food security and the spread of poverty. Consideration of the vital role of agriculture in economic growth and development, and since climate change and global warming in the future can pose serious risks to reduce the Valueadded Agriculture. Therefore, there is a need for an international policy to adopt strategies to mitigate or control climate change. This is not only for economic growth in the MENA countries but also for poverty reduction. Investment in sectors such as energyefficient technologies, renewable energy, public transport, sustainable agriculture, Implementation of appropriate cultivation pattern, development of droughttolerant crop varieties and sustainable management of natural resources are needed for the promotion of a green economy. While the green economy can reduce climate change, it can turn the pressures of climate change into an opportunity for sustainable agriculture, resulting in maximum production and the Valueadded agriculture.