RISK SCORING SYSTEM FOR PREDICTION OF ABDOMINAL OBESITY INA NATIONAL SAMPLE OF YOUTHS: CASPIAN STUDY

Abdominal obesity is a predictor for many cardia-metabolic disorders in differentage groups. the use of available information on factors associated with abdominal obesityhas been proposed as an effective way of identifying at-risk individuals. this study aimed to assessthe effectiveness of a risk scoring system for abdominal obesity in a large and representativepopulation of youths.methods: waist-to-height ratio (whtr) is an effective surrogate measure of abdominal obesityin children. this analysis was performed to find out the normal cut off value for whtr bycalculating the risk score .to develop a risk score to identify high-risk individuals for abdominalobesity, we analyzed data from a national survey, entitled caspial'l study, that was conductedon a nationally - representative sample of iranian stu dents aged 6-18 years. the risk equationwas determined by a multiple logistic regre ssion analysis, and receiver operator characteristics(roc) analysis was used to det ermine th e cut-off value for the risk equation.results: the independent risk factors associated with abdominal obesity were living in ruralarea, attending public school, positive family history of diabetes and obesity in first and seconddegree relatives, lower mother's education level, number of household members; whereas physicalactivity decrea sed this risk. the area under curve (auc) for th e roc was 63% (95% ci:0.612, 0.643).a caspianstudy population value ~ 39 had optimum sensitivity (64%) and specificity(54%) for determining abdominal obesity score.conclusion: this method can be helpful in screening and prevention of abdominal obesityby identifying thos e at-risk individuals in a timely manner.